As Liverpool sit 11 points clear at the top of the Premier League table, football writer Ben Bloom examines the state of play and considers whether the midweek fixtures might spark another twist in the tale.
With the end of February not even upon us and most teams still facing a dozen more matches, many are calling the Premier League title race over. After last weekend it is not difficult to see why.
The manner in which Liverpool dismissed four-time reigning champions Manchester City, coupled with injury-hit Arsenal’s shock defeat at home to West Ham United, left Arne Slot’s side with an 11-point advantage at the top (albeit having played one match more than the Gunners).
It is a huge margin that few see being overhauled at this stage of the campaign as Liverpool chase what would be a second Premier League title and their first won in front of fans.
So how decisive could this midweek round of fixtures prove to be? If Liverpool maintain their extraordinarily strong record against Newcastle United, and Arsenal slip up at third-placed Nottingham Forest, would the title race indeed be all but over? Or might it breathe life into an epic comeback triumph?
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
27 | +38 | 64 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
26 | +28 | 53 |
| 3 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
26 | +11 | 47 |
| 4 |
Man City
MCI
|
26 | +15 | 44 |
‘Horrible’ Anfield
Little over a week ago, there were concerns that Liverpool might be buckling under the strain of leading the Premier League table by such a considerable margin.
Everton’s late goal to snatch a 2-2 draw in the Merseyside derby was followed by Slot’s team clinging on to beat relegation-threatened Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-1 and then coming from behind to secure another 2-2 draw at Aston Villa. It did not scream champions elect.
All fears evaporated on Sunday, when Liverpool travelled to an Etihad Stadium that has not treated them kindly in recent years and beat Man City there in a Premier League match for the first time in the Pep Guardiola era.
Next up is a Newcastle side who have fared well at Anfield over decades. Since losing their first Premier League home match against Newcastle 2-0 in April 1994, Liverpool have not been beaten in their last 28 home meetings with them in the competition.
In fact, Newcastle have not won against Liverpool home or away in the Premier League since December 2015.
Delve deeper and Newcastle have struggled in their away matches against the teams at the top of the table over a long period. They haven't won any of their last 20, and have recorded just one victory (against Chelsea in December 2014) in their last 27 matches against sides who were in first place at kick-off.
Factor in Liverpool scoring at least two goals in each of their last 17 home games across all competitions, and it is not difficult to see why the hosts are expected to prevail on Wednesday night.
Ahead of Wednesday’s match, Virgil van Dijk urged home fans to make Anfield as "horrible" as possible for visiting teams.
"It only helps us and them [the supporters] as well to make Anfield horrible for the opponent," said the Liverpool captain.
"Most of the time we have been doing that, and obviously the way we play helps with that as well.
"How many home games are left? Seven out of 11. So let’s make sure those seven are going to be amazing, as loud as possible."
‘Angry’ Arsenal
For Arsenal – and any faint title hopes Forest might still harbour – there is no remaining margin for error. Anything other than victories will not suffice, and even those might not be enough.
"It’s not in our hands," bemoaned an angry Mikel Arteta, after Saturday's defeat against West Ham, which ended Arsenal’s 15-match unbeaten run in the Premier League.
"For me, I’m really, really annoyed with the things that were in our hands that we didn’t do as well as we possibly could."
Arsenal had 68 per cent possession in that match, but were unable to break down a West Ham side who employed a similar game plan to that which Forest will likely attempt on Wednesday.
With four of his forwards still injured, Arteta must decide whether to stick with Mikel Merino as a makeshift centre-forward as his side look to keep their title ambitions alive. Asked if he was ready to concede the title to Liverpool, the Arsenal manager defiantly replied "over my dead body".
Still in third, but now 17 points off the pace, Forest have lost three of their last four league matches as they look to cling onto a UEFA Champions League spot.
Crucially, they are unbeaten in six Premier League home matches, and another win would emulate their late-season 1-0 win over Arsenal in 2023, which put the nail in the coffin of their opponent’s title aspirations.
If Arsenal seek inspiration from the Premier League annals, it is in short supply.
The only team to have overturned a vaguely comparable deficit was their 1997/98 predecessors at Arsenal, who clawed back 11 points on leaders Manchester United from 2 March to win the title.
But Arsenal had two matches in hand back then, and United had already lost five times by that stage. The current Liverpool crop have tasted defeat only once.
"In every other league, having a lead like this would be very comfortable," said Slot. "But not in this league. There is a challenge in every game."
Newcastle away was 'very difficult'
Liverpool's previous meeting with Newcastle - December's 3-3 draw at St James' Park - was a great example of that challenge, as Slot pointed out in his pre-match press conference.
"I don't think I need to reinforce the message [that the title race is not over]," said Slot, "because these are the same players that played the Forest home game, Fulham home game, Manchester United home game, and Newcastle away.
"It was a very difficult game for us – two times being a goal down, and then being one goal up but eventually drawing it 3-3. The players know how difficult every single game is and if you have to play 11, that is still a long way to go."
