Analysis: Baleba and Ayari at the heart of Brighton's push for Europe

Football writer Adrian Clarke identifies the key players, team tactics and where matches could be won and lost in Matchweek 27.

Player analysis: Carlos Baleba and Yasin Ayari (Brighton)

That AFC Bournemouth's short trip east along the coast to Brighton & Hove Albion on a February evening could prove crucial to the two teams' hopes of qualifying for next season's UEFA Champions League would have been fanciful to even their most die-hard fans back in August.

But victory for the Cherries would take them fourth, albeit possibly for only 24 hours, while a Brighton win would pull them level with their sixth-placed opponents on 43 points. 

Race for Europe

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
3	Nott'm Forest NFO	26	+11	47
4	Man City MCI	26	+15	44
5	Newcastle NEW	26	+10	44
6	Bournemouth BOU	26	+14	43
7	Chelsea CHE	26	+12	43
8	Aston Villa AVL	27	-2	42
9	Brighton BHA	26	+4	40

Both have been among the standout teams this season, not only for their results, but for their exciting styles of play.

What is set to be an entertaining affair of all-out football at the Amex Stadium could well be decided in midfield, where two young Brighton stars have been the backbone of their challenge for European spots. 

BHA

19:30

BOU

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Impact of Baleba and Ayari

Baleba and Ayari have formed an exceptional central-midfield partnership under the guidance of Fabian Hurzeler.

Only four Premier League central midfielders aged 21 or under have made at least 10 starts this season, and these two Seagulls starlets are both on that list.

Midfielders under 21 with most starts and minutes

Their consistency has earned them the full trust of Brighton’s head coach after excellent displays in tough examinations against the likes of Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea.

Hurzeler will have no hesitation in backing Baleba and Ayari to handle their latest test on Tuesday against Bournemouth, the most ferocious out-of-possession side in the Premier League.

Defensive security

As a pairing these two midfielders offer plenty of quality in possession, but it is their physical sacrifice which often stands out.

Together they pressurise opponents with relentless enthusiasm.

When you look at how Brighton have fared this season with and without them, it is clear the defensive security they provide is what makes the difference.

In all competitions, the team have conceded more than double the number of goals from just three extra matches when Ayari and Baleba have not started as a pair.

They are a duo who strengthen Brighton's resistance down the middle of the pitch.

How Brighton fare with/without Ayari and Baleba

What are Baleba’s key strengths?

Baleba was dismissed for two yellow cards in the reverse fixture, but that will not stop him marauding in central midfield to disrupt Bournemouth’s flow.

He has made the second-most interceptions among all Premier League midfielders despite making fewer starts than the other leading protagonists.

Midfielders with most interceptions 24/25

Across the board, Baleba's desire and muscular approach helps him regain possession for Brighton, who sorely miss his presence when he is not available.

Baleba ranks fourth for duels won and ball recoveries per 90 minutes, with 7.05 and 6.62 respectively, among midfielders who have made at least 15 starts.

His tenacity forces turnovers that create the platform for many Brighton attacks.

After squeezing up to press high inside the final third, Baleba even got himself a goal against Chelsea by intercepting a pass out from the back, robbing former Brighton midfielder Moises Caicedo to score, as shown below.

Bournemouth’s deepest-lying midfielders must be very careful not to be caught in possession when Baleba looks to steal the ball away from them in advanced areas.

What does Baleba offer in possession?

Baleba has just one goal and two assists to his name so far this season, but he can still be influential as an attacking force.

At moments when Andoni Iraola’s side push up and hold a high line, Baleba is more than capable of hurting them with pinpoint accurate passes from his left foot.

His pre-assist at Old Trafford, releasing Kaoru Mitoma in behind (below) was a perfect example of how he plays his part with quality distribution.

Baleba is often the first player to collect passes from the goalkeeper or centre-backs, and he will always look to play forward when he can.

When you analyse his progressive passes during 2024/25 (below) you get a clear indication of how well he spreads the ball wide from central positions.

Brighton’s wingers like to stay high and wide, so Baleba will pick them out on a regular basis.

Unlike a lot of central midfielders, Baleba also has the pace - with a top speed of 34.5km/h - and power to surge past opponents with the ball.

Just like Ryan Gravenberch at Liverpool or Arsenal’s Declan Rice, Baleba is not afraid to carry the ball forward himself.

This is a useful trait when facing opponents like Bournemouth, who are happy to go man-to-man with their marking all over the pitch.

If Baleba can take the ball past his marker on Tuesday, the pitch could open up for him and his team.

What does Ayari bring to the side?

Ayari is an understated but highly effective midfielder alongside Baleba.

His work isn't as eye-catching, as he makes shorter passes and is less robust in his duels, but Ayari is everywhere, covering 11.43km per 90 minutes.

That makes him one of the league's hardest-working midfielders.

He is also one of Hurzeler’s most creative individuals, making 24 key passes this season; the second-most of any Brighton player.

Brighton players with most chances created 24/25

Some of those are from corners and wide free-kicks, but even in open play he is only topped by Mitoma and Joao Pedro, with 16 chances created respectively – the same as midfield partner Baleba.

Ayari has created a terrific rapport with Georginio Rutter in particular, setting him up for six chances.

Given time and space, Ayari's pass selection is usually excellent.

Hurzeler v Iraola

In an impressive 2-1 win at the Vitality Stadium early on this season, Brighton’s fluid attack proved too much for the Cherries.

Iraola’s men pressed them with serious intensity, but Hurzeler’s players stayed calm in possession to move the ball between the lines quite superbly.

As you can see from these numbers, Bournemouth worked hard to disrupt Brighton, but on many occasions they were bypassed by excellent passing.

Bournemouth v Brighton presses and passes

From a tactical perspective, this fixture pits the league's strongest ball-winning team against arguably the most press-resistant outfit.

No side find a team-mate more often between the lines than Brighton, while Bournemouth win the ball in advanced areas with the greatest frequency.

Most passes completed and possession won

Hurzeler versus Iraola is tactical duel that certainly whets the appetite.

It is guaranteed to be a fast-paced match packed with strategic nuance.

And in central midfield it will be especially interesting to see how Baleba and Ayari fare against a Bournemouth side that love to disrupt opposition players.