Football writer Adrian Clarke identifies the key players, team tactics and where matches could be won and lost in Matchweek 27.
Team analysis: Arsenal
Injury-hit Arsenal will arrive at the City Ground depleted and disappointed after West Ham United ended their 15-match unbeaten run last time out.
To keep their fading title hopes alive they must find a way to win at Nottingham Forest; a side who have won five and drawn one of their last six Premier League home matches.
It would not be easy with a full complement of players, so in the continued absence of Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus and Gabriel Martinelli the challenge is clear.
So, how will Mikel Arteta approach this contest? And what lessons can be learned from some of the unexpected points the Gunners have dropped?
Struggles against a certain type
Arsenal have been caused significant problems by opponents who set up aggressively in a mid-to-low defensive block, with a view to hurting them on the counter.
West Ham frustrated Arteta's side this way on Saturday and the same could be said of Aston Villa, Fulham, Everton and Newcastle United when they took points off Arsenal.
Under Nuno Espirito Santo, Forest are cut from a very similar tactical cloth.
They will be compact, determined to block up space between the lines, and have the intention of slowing Arsenal down, forcing them to move the ball wide.
As reflected in the stats below, the Gunners dominated possession in all those contests mentioned and came under very little pressure defensively.
Yet in each of those matches they laboured on the ball, struggling to move well-drilled rearguards out of position.
Consequently, Arsenal resorted to sending hopeful crosses into the penalty area as a matter of course - a ploy that their opponents comfortably handled.
The correlation between high numbers of crosses, and dropped points is clear to see.
Arsenal's open-play crosses v result correlation 24/25
| Opp. | Poss. % | Open-play crosses | Shots faced | Result |
| WHU (H) | 66.8% | 27 (2nd) | 5 | 1-0 (L) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVL (H) | 66.0% | 28 (1st) | 8 | 2-2 (D) |
| FUL (A) | 66.2% | 20 (3rd) | 2 | 1-1 (D) |
| EVE (H) | 76.6% | 19 (5th) | 2 | 0-0 (D) |
| NEW (A) | 63.9% | 17 (7th) | 9 | 1-0 (L) |
*Brackets=season ranking for most open-play crosses
Playing to Merino’s strengths
In some respects it is a catch-22 situation because it makes sense to flight plenty of aerial balls into the penalty area if Mikel Merino is used as a makeshift centre-forward.
The Spaniard scored twice from excellent Ethan Nwaneri and Leandro Trossard crosses in the win at Leicester City, and he is a fabulous aerial threat.
Over the course of the campaign, no team has scored more goals from open-play crosses either.
Most PL goals from open-play crosses 24/25
| Team | Total |
| Arsenal | 8 |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 7 |
| Fulham | 7 |
| Liverpool | 6 |
| Spurs | 6 |
The key to success at the City Ground will be variety, especially up against a side who have made more clearances than any other this season.
Forest centre-backs Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo are both excellent at dealing with aerial balls, so if guile and imaginative combinations can also be used to unlock the door, those avenues need to be explored.
Alternative shapes
Last time out Merino was left isolated too often, and because he doesn’t possess great speed, Arsenal found it difficult to stretch West Ham.
With this in mind, Arteta could offer Merino a strike partner in a different 4-4-2 formation:
Arsenal (4-4-2): Raya; Calafiori, Gabriel, Saliba, Timber; Odegaard, Rice, Partey, Nwaneri; Trossard, Merino.
Alternatively, the Gunners might choose to mimic Liverpool’s approach at Manchester City by playing twin "false nines" in a 4-2-4-0 system.
Looking at the personnel available, and taking into account the threat carried by Anthony Elanga down Forest’s right flank, a 3-5-2 formation may also be in Arteta’s thinking.
This would allow Arsenal to protect Riccardo Calafiori with another defensive player - Kieran Tierney - down that side, while also utilising Nwaneri in a more natural central berth where he could pick up the ball between the lines.
This line-up looks more balanced:
Arsenal (3-5-2): Raya; Calafiori, Gabriel, Saliba; Tierney, Odegaard, Rice, Nwaneri, Timber; Trossard, Merino.
More chaos required
Whichever formation Arteta uses on Wednesday, greater fluidity and positional rotation would certainly make them harder to defend against.
Arteta’s side has looked a little too structured and predictable in most of the matches where they have been frustrated by mid-to-low blocks.
In the 1-1 draw at a defensive Fulham outfit, Saka, Odegaard and Trossard all stayed within their zones for almost the entirety of the match.
Here are the heat maps from Saka and Odegaard which illustrate this, indicating that the duo rarely ventured away from the right touchline.
Saka's heat map v Fulham
Odegaard's heat map v Fulham
A similar pattern occurred last weekend when we saw very little in the way of varied movement from Nwaneri, Odegaard and Trossard.
This made them easy to pick up, allowing the Hammers to keep their shape with ease.
In theory we should see more chaos from Arsenal's front four at Forest because fracturing the back line with fast-paced football has to be their aim.
With Merino up top, the Gunners need to have plenty of sharp movement in and around him to pull Forest’s defenders out of position.
What will Nuno’s game plan be?
It will be interesting to see if Forest head coach Nuno opts for a 3-4-2-1 shape or the 4-2-3-1 he has used for most of the campaign.
Both formations will be designed to frustrate Arsenal, and hurt them on the break.
Left-back Calafiori struggled to cope with Aaron Wan-Bissaka’s pacy raids down his side on the counter last Saturday, with Arsenal conceding the decisive goal from one of those breakaways.
It is the fourth time they have let in a goal from a fast break in 2024/25 from a division-low 14 shots faced.
Nuno’s men sat in with just 29 per cent of possession in their 1-1 draw at home to Liverpool, and in a 1-0 success against Tottenham Hotspur at the City Ground they registered 29.6 per cent possession.
Forest will want to play that way again, feeding players such as Elanga and Morgan Gibbs-White whenever they are able to launch a quick attack.
A match that matters
With third place hosting second, this is a hugely pivotal fixture that will have a major bearing on the title race and quest for UEFA Champions League football.
Forest need a win to ease the pressure of the chasing pack, while Arsenal will be desperate to erase memories of their 1-0 loss at the City Ground in May 2023, a result that handed Man City the title.
We have a good idea of how Forest will approach this match, but for Arteta’s men we might just see something different as they look to bounce back quickly from a bad weekend.
Also in this series