It’s fair to say the fallout from an eventful weekend of FA Cup fifth-round action has wreaked havoc on the plans of many managers in Fantasy Premier League.
Crystal Palace’s Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.5m) and Wolverhampton Wanderers star Matheus Cunha (£7.0m) approached last weekend as the most-bought forwards in Fantasy ahead of Saturday's 11:00 GMT deadline for Gameweek 28, earning 204,000 and 147,000 transfers in respectively.
But the pair are now ALSO among the three most-sold forwards in the Gameweek after on-field events.
Mateta is now a major doubt for Palace’s home match against Ipswich Town on Saturday after being taken off on a stretcher with a head injury sustained against Millwall. He then has a Blank Gameweek 29 (BGW29) to follow, where his club are without a Premier League fixture so he can't core any Fantasy points.
Cunha, meanwhile, was shown a red card for violent conduct against AFC Bournemouth and is set to miss Wolves' next three Premier League matches, if the usual three-match ban for such sendings-off is applied by The FA to the Brazilian.
This comes at a time when FPL managers are already without the services of Alexander Isak (£9.4m), the most-owned forward, for BGW29 as a result of Newcastle United's participation in the EFL Cup final against Liverpool.
Although many of Isak's 56 per cent backers are planning to bench him for the reduced round of matches, others are seeking out replacements for the Swede, who was also withdrawn due to fatigue against Brighton & Hove Albion on Sunday.
Indeed, Isak is the most-sold player in Gameweek 28, with his total of 211,000+ transfers out at least 50,000 more than any other player.
Who are the in-form forwards in Fantasy?
The recent displays of Chris Wood (£7.2m) show why he will be a prominent figure in many managers’ starting line-ups.
Nottingham Forest's talisman has mirrored Mateta’s four goals, one assist and 33 points over the last four Gameweeks, with the duo’s average of 8.3 points per match (ppm) ranking joint-top in the table below.
At the very opposite ends of the price scale, Everton’s Beto (£5.0m) and Manchester City’s Erling Haaland (£14.7m) have also proven very reliable.
Beto has been hugely influential figure in the Toffees’ recent turnaround under David Moyes. Indeed, the 27-year-old is the top-scoring forward in Fantasy across the last four Gameweeks, delivering five goals and 37 points in five appearances. He has blanked just ONCE over those five matches, averaging 7.4 points per appearance.
Haaland’s two goals and an assist in this spell means he has now produced attacking returns in five successive league appearances. The Norwegian heads into the upcoming period in his most consistent form of the campaign, with just ONE blank across his last eight league outings.
Contrast that with Haaland's new team-mate Omar Marmoush (£7.2m), whose hat-trick against Newcastle accounts for 17 of his 25 points since joining the club.
Elsewhere, Brentford’s Yoane Wissa (£6.4m) and Brighton & Hove Albion's Joao Pedro (£5.4m) have also shown form in the budget bracket, averaging over 5.0ppm over their last four outings.
Top-scoring forwards, GW24-27
| Player | G & A | Blanks | Pts | PPM |
| Mateta | 5 | 0 | 33 | 8.3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wood | 5 | 1 | 33 | 8.3 |
| Beto | 5 | 1 | 37 | 7.4 |
| Cunha | 3 | 1 | 27 | 6.8 |
| Haaland | 3 | 0 | 19 | 6.3 |
| Marmoush | 3 | 3 | 23 | 5.8 |
| Isak | 2 | 2 | 17 | 5.7 |
| Joao Pedro | 3 | 2 | 22 | 5.5 |
| Wissa | 2 | 2 | 21 | 5.3 |
| Delap | 2 | 2 | 20 | 5.0 |
| Watkins | 3 | 2 | 23 | 4.6 |
Who is most likely to score?
The underlying statistics are also very much on Beto’s side over those last four Gameweeks.
Everton’s budget forward has had eight big chances, which are situations where the player is expected to score. That is TWICE the total of any other forward whose clubs have a match in both Gameweek 28 and BGW29.
Furthermore, Beto’s totals of 12 shots in the box and 11 shots on target each match the combined tallies of Wood and Haaland.
Fulham’s Raul Jimenez (£5.5m), meanwhile, leads the way with 15 shots in the box, with Wissa and Ipswich’s Liam Delap (£5.6m) also joining Beto in the top four for this statistic.
Joao Pedro is also worth a mention for his all-round contribution. The Brighton star has had four big chances and created a further three, which means he has been involved in seven such situations. That places him second only to Beto, who has been involved in nine.
Forwards' attacking stats, GW24-27
| Player | Big chances | Shots in box | Shots on target | Big-chance involvement |
| Beto | 8 | 12 | 11 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joao Pedro | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| Wood | 4 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| Haaland | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Jimenez | 3 | 15 | 5 | 4 |
| Wissa | 3 | 10 | 5 | 3 |
| Delap | 2 | 10 | 5 | 3 |
| Marmoush | 2 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
Which clubs have the best schedules to target?
By analysing the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR) over the next two Gameweeks, managers can further refine their targets.
Once again, Beto ticks a box here - according to the FDR, Everton and Wolves are the only two clubs whose next two matches BOTH score only two.
Wood’s visit to Ipswich in BGW29 also scores just two in the FDR. His record against promoted clubs also suggests the New Zealand international could be a major captaincy contender for that reduced round of matches.
In four meetings with promoted opponents in 2024/25 Fantasy, Wood has four goals, an assist and 35 points, which includes two of his four double-figure hauls for the season.
Teams to target
| Club | GW28 opp. | BGW29 opp. | Total FDR |
| Everton | Wolves (A) | West Ham (H) | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves | Everton (H) | Southampton (A) | 4 |
| Bournemouth | Spurs (A) | Brentford (H) | 5 |
| Brentford | Aston Villa (H) | Bournemouth (A) | 6 |
| Nottingham Forest | Man City (H) | Ipswich (A) | 6 |
| Man City | Nottingham Forest (A) | Brighton (H) | 7 |
*1 = easiest possible fixture, 5 = hardest possible fixture
While AFC Bournemouth’s matches against Spurs and Brentford could make Evanilson (£5.6m) a short-term option, the Brazilian’s minutes are perhaps more likely to be managed than the likes of Brentford's Wissa, who has a home fixture versus Aston Villa prior to the Bees' visit to Bournemouth in BGW29, given Evanilson has only recently returned from injury.
Man City’s home fixture against Brighton in BGW29 could also heavily impact the manager standings as Haaland is likely to be a very popular captain pick for those playing the Free Hit chip.
So, who are the best forwards to own for Gameweeks 28-29?
BGW29 has to be at the forefront of every decision you are now making, and Wood’s ownership plays a big part in cementing his place as a must-have.
The Forest striker is already selected by 44 per cent of managers, which means he will be the second most-popular player who has a fixture in BGW29, bettered only by the 59 per cent of Chelsea midfielder Cole Palmer (£11.1m).
The crisis in managers’ forward lines also comes at a point of the season where many are planning their chip strategies for the remainder of 2024/25.
And that ultimately should dictate the rest of the forwards you are considering right now.
For example, if you are one of the many managers who are looking to "dead-end" your team before playing a Wildcard in Gameweek 30 - bringing in short-term picks with favourable fixtures who you can then transfer out immediately on a Wildcard - then Beto and Wissa have the fixtures to reward investors in each of their next two matches.
At such low costs, they could prove particularly appealing options for those managers who are also dead-ending by benching premium assets such as Isak and Liverpool pair Mohamed Salah (£13.8m) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.4m) in BGW29.
Meanwhile, Haaland’s improving form will surely make him the standout captain for managers who are playing their Free Hit chip in BGW29.
Although there’s no denying Haaland has a huge upside for returns, Wood’s recent form against promoted clubs suggests he could also claim a big captain haul in BGW29. Giving him the armband is a tactic which, for some, can help negate the need to take multiple points hits to free up funds for Haaland.
