Football writer Alex Keble highlights the hot topics and tactical lessons from Matchweek 28 including:
- Nottingham Forest’s top-four hopes revitalised
- Arsenal’s title bid faltering for one reason
- Hope for Van Nistelrooy with new formation
- Spurs' inability to adapt being a concern
- Disasi starring as Villa secure rare clean sheet
- Wharton has Palace dreaming of Europe
- Salah climbs the charts as Liverpool all-but secure the title
- How Cunha is a big miss in Wolves' battle to avoid relegation
- Joao Pedro highlighting the fine margins in race for Europe
Nottingham Forest’s top-four hopes revitalised
Throughout Manchester City’s difficult 2024/25 campaign, the issue has been defending, not scoring, but against one of the league’s best defences, Pep Guardiola’s side were simply too passive to create high-quality chances.
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Bernardo Silva and Phil Foden, starting as the two No 8s, could not get into the game against such a compressed Nottingham Forest midfield: Nuno Espirito Santo’s team held firm in their 4-4-2, moving City into harmless wide areas.
City’s "passing network" below shows how hard they found it to get on the ball in central attacking midfield.
Guardiola risked a more open game by bringing on Kevin De Bruyne and Omar Marmoush in the 69th minute, aware that he needed to create instability in order to draw Forest out.
But unfortunately for Guardiola, it backfired. Forest scored via the sort of long ball forward that had become commonplace after the match was stretched.
It was no less than the hosts deserved, and a huge win in the context of their season.
Defeat would have lifted Man City above them and plunged Forest towards the mass of clubs fighting for European football. Instead, Nuno’s side have renewed confidence and a renewed hope of finishing in the top four.
UEFA Champions League qualification has never felt closer.
Arsenal’s title bid has faltered for one simple reason
Ruben Amorim’s decision to defend in a deep block (“sometimes we have to do things that are not popular,” he told Sky Sports after the game) was the obvious ploy: it is becoming increasingly easy to stunt Arsenal’s attack during their injury crisis.
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If Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz were fit, perhaps the Premier League title race would have gone differently, but there can be no denying that Arsenal have lacked a goalscoring No 9 all season.
Their Expected Goals (xG) of 1.62 on Sunday is hardly high, yet it was their highest in the last 10 Premier League matches. Arsenal rank seventh in the Premier League for total xG this season.
Top 10 PL teams for total xG in 24/25
| Club | xG | Club | xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 66.05 | Newcastle | 45.29 |
| Chelsea | 56.72 | Arsenal | 45.00 |
| Bournemouth | 52.09 | Crystal Palace | 44.89 |
| Man City | 50.46 | Brentford | 44.35 |
| Spurs | 47.15 | Aston Villa | 42.28 |
Two Premier League pundits are certainly in agreement about what Arsenal are missing.
"I think we'd be a lot closer to Liverpool if we'd had that striker who could take those chances, in the moments where Arsenal needed one," said former Gunners forward Ian Wright.
"We have to start thinking about the summer because you watch a game like that again and you just feel like it's just something missing - options up front.
"Go and get someone whose job it is to score goals," added ex-Man Utd midfielder Owen Hargreaves. "Go and get a striker and a centre midfielder. Then you can win everything."
Van Nistelrooy sees positives with new 3-4-2-1 formation
Leicester City have lost 12 of their last 13 Premier League matches and didn’t look close to getting a point at Stamford Bridge, managing just three shots on goal.
Yet, in desperate times, Ruud van Nistelrooy is taking positives where he can, and there were some small green shoots at Chelsea.
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"A good performance," was his assessment. "A lot of spirit, a lot of heart, combined with good football, some good build-up moments, some good progression moments, and some crosses that didn’t connect with the forwards.
"Off the ball as well, [we had] a new shape [and] we looked solid. I can’t praise the players enough."
That is perhaps a generous assessment but Leicester certainly looked better in a new 3-4-2-1 formation, trialled for the first time here by Van Nistelrooy.
The defence was more secure in a five, and at times the inside forwards connected with the central midfielders to get Leicester up the pitch.
Nothing to write home about yet, but it was an interesting tactical discovery nevertheless, particularly with home matches against fellow strugglers Southampton and Ipswich Town and an away trip to 17th-placed Wolverhampton Wanderers still to come.
Spurs’ inability to adapt game-plan is a concern
Although a 2-2 draw with high-flying AFC Bournemouth is a good result, especially after coming back from 2-0 down, this was far from a vintage Tottenham Hotspur performance and Ange Postecoglou’s team were lucky to take a point.
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A cross going directly in and a penalty: these were fortunate moments for Spurs, who otherwise failed to tweak their game to deal with Bournemouth’s well-known threat of high pressing and fast transitions.
On both tactics, Spurs refused to adapt.
Bournemouth could easily have been 2-0 up within the first five minutes when risky passing out from Spurs’ own penalty area played into the visitors’ hands, with Andoni Iraola’s side pinching possession to go through on goal.
Spurs survived, but their attacking stance continued to leave them wide open to being counter-attacked, and sure enough Bournemouth scored two goals in the transition.
It was not ideal preparation for Thursday’s crucial match in the UEFA Europa League against AZ Alkmaar, who will come to north London and look to spring counter-attacks.
Postecoglou has often been accused of always playing the same way. Doing so again on Thursday could have far-reaching consequences.
Disasi stars as Villa secure clean sheet that could get them back on track
This was a huge result for Aston Villa. Not only did it end their run of losing seven Premier League matches that followed midweek Champions League games, it was also their first clean sheet in eight outings (and fourth of the season overall) and just their fifth away win in the competition in 2024/25.
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With defensive injuries clearing up, it raises hopes that Villa can go on a winning streak and re-enter the race for a top-five finish.
Much has been made of the success of Villa’s January signings Marco Asensio and Marcus Rashford, yet on Saturday it was the defensive recruit Axel Disasi who stood out.
He was a brick wall in the Villa defence, deservedly winning Player of the Match as the visitors held firm against a late onslaught.
A solid and well-stocked defence, attacking options from the bench, and a winning streak (four of the last five in all competitions) to raise confidence: of all the teams hoping to surge into fifth, Villa look the best option right now.
Wharton masterclass has Palace dreaming of Europe
Only Liverpool, with 25, have won more Premier League points so far in 2025 than Crystal Palace's 19. It's a quite remarkable run by Oliver Glasner’s side that leaves them only five points off eighth place, which could be a UEFA Conference League spot.
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And Palace are more likely to speed up than slow down thanks to the return of Adam Wharton, who was by far the best player on the pitch on Saturday.
Wharton created six chances, the most by a Palace player in a Premier League game since Eberechi Eze against Sheffield United in August 2023.
He also had 67 touches, more than any other midfielder on the pitch, made the most passes (60) and completed the most crosses (four).
Key: Green - successful pass, yellow - chance created, red - failed pass
An England call-up feels likely. In six months’ time, he might be playing European football at Selhurst Park.
Salah climbs the charts as Liverpool end March with title all-but sealed
Mohamed Salah’s two penalties at Anfield took him to new heights in multiple categories.
His 242nd and 243rd goals for Liverpool in all competitions made him the outright third-highest scorer for Liverpool behind Ian Rush (346) and Roger Hunt (285).
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He is also now the joint-fifth highest scorer in Premier League history alongside Sergio Aguero (184), while his 44 goal involvements in 2024/25 is the joint-highest for a 38-match season, equalling the record set by Erling Haaland in 2022/23.
Salah’s goals at the weekend helped Liverpool to take another big step towards the title, before their position was made even stronger by Arsenal dropping two more points on Sunday.
Arne Slot's men won’t play in the Premier League again until April and in the meantime, the head coach can turn his focus entirely to the Champions League and to this weekend’s EFL Cup final.
Cunha absence could still drag Wolves into relegation zone
On a weekend when Wolverhampton Wanderers moved further clear of the relegation zone – six points now – it might seem unfair to sound a note of caution. But Matheus Cunha’s absence was very noticeable on Saturday evening, and not every team will be as forgiving as Everton.
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Wolves have failed to win any of their last nine Premier League matches without Cunha starting, drawing two and losing seven, scoring just one goal across their last six matches.
As we highlighted last week, Cunha’s goals or assists (17 overall, or 46 per cent of Wolves’ Premier League total) have directly contributed 10 points.
His suspension will also see him miss Wolves' fixtures against Southampton and West Ham United. If they lose those, Wolves could be within two or three points of the relegation zone.
Joao Pedro penalty highlights the fine margins in European hunt
With 10 matchdays remaining, there are just five points separating Chelsea in fourth from Newcastle United in ninth, an unprecedented situation that could see four or five clubs competing for Champions League football on the last day of the season.
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When the dust settles on 2024/25, fans of the clubs who have made it and those who missed out will look back – with relief or bitterness – at small moments that ultimately decided their fate.
It looks as though one of Brighton & Hove Albion’s most important came on Saturday, when a 98th-minute Joao Pedro penalty turned one point into three.
Joao Pedro’s successful spot-kick extended their winning streak to four matches and moved Brighton into sixth place. Had he missed it, they would be ninth and at the end of their winning run.
The margins are scarily small. Fabian Hurzeler will need a few more results to go in his favour if Brighton are to fend off their rivals.