Arsenal top the table at Christmas and will feel the omens for such teams are encouraging in their quest for a fourth Premier League title.
In 10 of the last 13 seasons, the team sitting No 1 on 25 December have gone on to lift the Premier League Trophy, with Manchester City maintaining that trend in 2021/22.
In this unique campaign, paused for the FIFA World Cup 2022, Arsenal have played 14 matches - four fewer than City had 12 months ago, so the Gunners must stay in front for longer.
However, they also hold a bigger lead. Mikel Arteta's side are five points clear, whereas City only had a three-point gap on 25 December 2021.
Hope for the chasers
Arsenal's pursuers can find their own encouragement from seasons past.
In 14 of the Premier League's 30 previous campaigns, the Christmas leaders have been overtaken come the season's end.
And on all three occasions in the last 13 seasons when that has happened, it has been Man City who have come from behind to win.
Eventual champions' positions on 25 Dec
| Team | Pos | Team | Pos | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92/93 | Man Utd | 4th | 07/08 | Man Utd | 2nd |
| 93/94 | Man Utd | 1st | 08/09 | Man Utd | 4th |
| 94/95 | Blackburn | 1st | 09/10 | Chelsea | 1st |
| 95/96 | Man Utd | 2nd | 10/11 | Man Utd | 1st |
| 96/97 | Man Utd | 5th | 11/12 | Man City | 1st |
| 97/98 | Arsenal | 6th | 12/13 | Man Utd | 1st |
| 98/99 | Man Utd | 3rd | 13/14 | Man City | 3rd |
| 99/00 | Man Utd | 2nd | 14/15 | Chelsea | 1st |
| 00/01 | Man Utd | 1st | 15/16 | Leicester | 1st |
| 01/02 | Arsenal | 2nd | 16/17 | Chelsea | 1st |
| 02/03 | Man Utd | 3rd | 17/18 | Man City | 1st |
| 03/04 | Arsenal | 2nd | 18/19 | Man City | 2nd |
| 04/05 | Chelsea | 1st | 2019/20 | Liverpool | 1st |
| 05/06 | Chelsea | 1st | 2020/21 | Man City | 8th |
| 06/07 | Man Utd | 1st | 2021/22 | Man City | 1st |
Half of City's six titles have come when they have been chasing at Christmas.
Indeed, they are the only team in Premier League history to win the title after being as low as eighth on 25 December.
In that 2020/21 season City were eight points off the top at Christmas.
Some champions have overcome an even bigger points deficit. Arsenal were 13 adrift on 25 December 1997 but battled back to win their first Premier League title.
This term, Arsenal's fixtures over the turn of the year will test their ability to stay at the top.
They have a tricky London derby at home to West Ham United on Boxing Day, then visit seventh-placed Brighton & Hove Albion on 31 December before a crunch duel with third-placed Newcastle United on 3 January.
Also in this series
Part 2: Man City hunting Man Utd's record for best festive form
Part 3: How much does your club enjoy Christmas?
Part 4: Promoted clubs target rare hat-trick in bid to stay up
Part 5: Festive duels can shape relegation battle
Part 6: Kane targets goal records for Boxing Day and festive period
Part 7: League leaders set for tough festive schedule