Across the last few campaigns "false nines" were very much on trend, but this season big centre-forwards are back in vogue.
There has always been a place for a traditional No 9, but at the halfway stage of the 2022/23 season, it feels that managers have been more inclined to select taller, physical players in attack.
Manchester City have led the way by switching from a striker-less formation to a tactical framework that revolves around the physical presence of Erling Haaland.
The 6ft 5in Norwegian is destined to land the Castrol Golden Boot, but a cursory glance at his nearest competition also shows a clutch of other tall forwards.
Harry Kane, Ivan Toney, and Aleksandar Mitrovic are all enjoying tremendous campaigns.
Leading PL scorers & their height 22/23
| Player | Goals | Height |
|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 25 | 6ft 5in |
| Harry Kane | 16 | 6ft 2in |
| Ivan Toney | 13 | 6ft 1in |
| Aleksandar Mitrovic | 11 | 6ft 2in |
| Rodrigo | 10 | 6ft |
Many Premier League teams appear to be moving in a similar direction.
Erik ten Hag recruited target man Wout Weghorst in January to offer his side a fresh option, while Nottingham Forest’s Steve Cooper also moved swiftly to secure Chris Wood’s services when Taiwo Awoniyi picked up an injury.
Elsewhere, Diego Costa was brought in to perform a specific role at Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Kieffer Moore has become a fixture in Gary O’Neil’s starting XI at AFC Bournemouth, while teenage sensation Evan Ferguson is also emerging as a star at Brighton & Hove Albion.
Not so direct
Does this increased use of robust centre-forwards mean we have seen a switch to more direct football?
No. In fact it has been the exact opposite.
At this stage of the season, we are witnessing record lows for long passes and flick-ons in Premier League matches, continuing a pattern that has been ongoing for almost a decade.
Remarkably, the number of striker flick-ons has more than halved in just five seasons.
At the top level, playing the percentages is not a ploy many head coaches are interested in using until late on in matches, when they are chasing a goal.
Long passes 2014/15-2022/23
| Season | Total | Ratio of passes |
|---|---|---|
| 2014/15 | 50,404 | 15.1% |
| 2015/16 | 50,421 | 15.2% |
| 2016/17 | 51,538 | 15.4% |
| 2017/18 | 49,442 | 14.4% |
| 2018/19 | 46,671 | 13.4% |
| 2019/20 | 45,604 | 13.1% |
| 2020/21 | 42,676 | 11.9% |
| 2021/22 | 42,066 | 12.2% |
| 2022/23 | 21,309 | 11.7% |
Flick-ons 2014/15-2022/23
| Season | Total | Average/match |
|---|---|---|
| 2014/15 | 7,574 | 19.9 |
| 2015/16 | 7,031 | 18.5 |
| 2016/17 | 6,494 | 17.1 |
| 2017/18 | 6,480 | 17.1 |
| 2018/19 | 5,141 | 13.5 |
| 2019/20 | 4,289 | 11.3 |
| 2020/21 | 3.515 | 9.3 |
| 2021/22 | 3,372 | 8.9 |
| 2022/23 | 1,608 | 8.1 |
The data shows that while the use of physical forwards has increased, head coaches are not automatically adopting a long ball style of play.
This is a reflection on the rounded skill sets of modern-day No 9s.
Technically excellent and well-coached, players who are strong in the air can thrive in teams who play through the thirds, building attacks with a mixture of short and long passing.
Having a physical forward providing defenders with an "out ball" is a good option, but few teams want to focus their game plans on going long from back to front.
Different approaches
Fulham striker Aleksandar Mitrovic is a prime example.
Under Marco Silva, Fulham's game is based around pressing, sharp passing, quality movement and delivering crosses into the box.
They can be direct when they choose to be, but usually opt for a tactically balanced approach that demands plenty of Mitrovic.
The Serb is phenomenal at attacking crosses in the air, winning his fair share of flick-ons, but he is also mobile enough to press with enthusiasm and link play with his feet.
The same would apply to many of the big centre-forwards in the division right now.
Brentford are the team most likely to work off "second balls" won by their tall centre-forward.
A league-high 17 per cent of Brentford's passes are long and Toney has won significantly more flick-ons than any other PL striker.
This approach has value and works superbly for Thomas Frank’s side, but it is becoming increasingly uncommon.
Most flick-ons by PL strikers 2023/23
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Ivan Toney | 61 |
| Kieffer Moore | 41 |
| Aleksandar Mitrovic | 35 |
| Che Adams | 28 |
| Harry Kane | 27 |
Despite the presence of so many tall strikers, there has never been a lower number of open-play crosses per 90 minutes.
The current average of 23.9 crosses per match is nearly half the 41.6 that was averaged when such recording of data began in 2005/06.
Since then, the decline has been both consistent and dramatic.
What we have seen, perhaps understandably, is greater efficiency from crosses this season.
The total of 21.7 per cent is the second-highest cross accuracy percentage on record, reflecting the difference big forwards make when attacking deliveries into the penalty area.
Headed shots/crossing accuracy 2013-23
| Most headed shots/90 | Best crossing accuracy | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | 4.0 | 2022/23 | 21.7% |
| 2018/19 | 3.9 | 2018/19 | 20.0% |
| 2013/14 | 3.8 | 2016/17 | 19.8% |
| 2020/21 | 3.7 | 2021/22 | 19.6% |
| 2016/17 | 3.6 | 2013/14 | 19.3% |
An average of four headed shots per match is also the highest number during the last decade of Premier League football.
The percentage of 15.8 per cent goals scored from headers may be the fourth-lowest in the last 18 years, but in specific teams there is certainly more value in delivering from the flanks.
Successful open play crosses/crossing accuracy
| Succ. open play crosses | Best crossing accuracy % | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs | 79 | AFC Bournemouth | 25.7% |
| Man City | 70 | Spurs | 25.2% |
| Fulham | 68 | Newcastle | 25% |
Is it a coincidence that Tottenham Hotspur, Man City and Fulham have produced more successful crosses than anybody else given the strikers they use?
Moore benefits
AFC Bournemouth, who have 6ft 5in Moore to aim for, also boast the most accurate crossing ratio.
Head coaches may not see too much value in centring an entire strategy around big centre-forwards, but working the ball wide to cross is still of paramount importance.
The three leading protagonists with headed goals this term - Haaland, Kane and Mitrovic - have all equalled or bettered the tallies managed by last season’s most dangerous aerial threats.
With almost half of the campaign remaining that is impressive.
Most headed goals comparison
| Season 2021/22* | Season 2022/23** | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Kane | 4 | Kane | 7 |
| Jota | 4 | Haaland | 5 |
| Welbeck | 4 | Mitrovic | 4 |
* 38 matches ** 20 matches
In the past, a tall No 9 would often be pigeon-holed as a "target man", but that term is not apt for the current generation.
Better coaching from Academy level upwards and a long-term shift to technical possession-based play have helped t0 produce multiple skilled players.
At a time when more and more clubs are choosing to adopt their own long-term club identities, most of which focus on an attractive style of play, this has been an essential development.
Managers and head coaches now use aerial strength as a tactical weapon, without sacrificing a style of play that also suits their model or the rest of their starting XI.
Also in this series
Part 1: Lee Grant on transitioning from a goalkeeper to a coach
Part 2: Aaron Danks: Understanding your players is invaluable
Part 4: Why corners are on course for record success
