Fantasy Premier League

Who could be about to reward patient managers in FPL?

By The Scout 20 Sep 2023

The Scout shows who has been missing out on expected attacking returns, and why that could change

In Fantasy Premier League, one of the biggest and most frustrating mistakes is to hastily sell a player just before they deliver big scores.

Looking at the statistic for Expected Goal Involvement (xGI) can help FPL managers see who is close to getting attacking returns, just missing out due to bad luck or a slight lack of quality.

xGI shows how many combined goals and assists a player is expected to have, based on their positions and other data. You can find this information in the "Statistics" section of the Fantasy website, and in the "Stats" tab of each player's FPL profile on the app.

Here, The Scout highlights players who can soon deliver big returns in Fantasy Premier League.

Marcus Rashford (Man Utd) £8.9m

The Manchester United star's indifferent start to the season has made him the most-sold midfielder in Fantasy, moved on by almost 1.7million managers since the start of the campaign on the back of one goal and two assists.

Despite a favourable match at Burnley, Rashford is the second most-sold midfielder in Gameweek 6, with 120,000 managers moving him on.

See: Top transfers for Gameweek 6

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A breakdown of the underlying numbers show Rashford has been least effective when playing as a lone centre-forward.

He recorded his lowest xGI scores this season of 0.45 and 0.44 in Man Utd's first two matches while playing in this position.

Rashford reverted to his favoured role on the left flank in Gameweeks 3 and 4, producing all of his attacking returns of 2023/24 in those matches.

He was then paired with Rasmus Hojlund (£7.0m) in a front two against Brighton & Hove Albion in Gameweek 5. And although Rashford blanked in the 3-1 loss, his numbers look very encouraging.

Nine shots, six shots in the box and two big chances created were his best numbers for each statistic this campaign.

Rashford’s stats per Gameweek

GW	xGI	Shots	Shots in box	Big chances created
1	0.45	4	4	0
2	0.44	3	3	0
3	0.70	2	1	1
4	0.93	5	4	0
5	0.73	9	6	2

The average position graphic shows No 10 Rashford played in a far more advanced role against Brighton than his fellow Fantasy midfielder, No 8 Bruno Fernandes (£8.4m).

MW5-WWL-Man-Utd-ave-positions-v-Brighton

This indicates the England star is the most likely Man Utd midfielder to take advantage of a favourable run of opponents.

According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), six of the Red Devils' next eight matches score only two.

Man Utd's next eight matches

GW	Opponent	FDR	GW	Opponent	FDR
6	Burnley (A)	2	10	Man City (H)	5
7	Crystal Palace (H)	2	11	Fulham (A)	2
8	Brentford (H)	3	12	Luton (H)	2
9	Sheff Utd (A)	2	13	Everton (A)	2

Certainly, Fernandes has proven one of the most frustrating players to own this season, according to the xGI numbers.

While the Portuguese’s xGI score of 4.51 is the fourth-best among all players, Fernandes has only been involved in two goals.

That difference of -2.51, which is his xGI Delta, is the third-worst in the league.

Top underperformers for xGI

Player	xGI	xGI rank	G&A*	xGI Delta
E. Fernandez	2.76	17th	0	-2.76
Jackson	3.73	7th	1	-2.73
B. Fernandes	4.51	4th	2	-2.51
Eze	3.17	10th	1	-2.17

*combined goals and assists

Nicolas Jackson (Chelsea) £7.0m

The Chelsea forward is the most-sold player in Gameweek 6 on the back of one goal in his opening five matches.

See: FPL experts: Who should managers prioritise selling?

Although Jackson's xGI Delta of -2.73 is the second-worst of any player, his xGI of 3.73 places seventh overall, just behind the 3.80 of James Maddison (£7.9m).

Having been booked against AFC Bournemouth last weekend, Jackson is just one yellow card away from a single-match ban.

See: Who is close to a suspension?

But managers prepared to take a chance and hold Jackson temporarily could still be rewarded, with Chelsea facing Aston Villa, Fulham and Burnley in the next three Gameweeks.