Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 21.
Team analysis: Newcastle United
It is not a stat that will please head coach Eddie Howe, but Newcastle have conceded more goals in their last six Premier League matches than they did across their first 14 games of the season.
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Humbling defeats at the hands of Everton, Tottenham Hotspur, Luton Town, Nottingham Forest and Liverpool will have left scars on Tyneside.
A little bruised by those experiences, the Magpies could be forgiven for feeling slight trepidation ahead of a meeting with defending champions Manchester City on Saturday evening.
An alarming drop-off
Headlines were made when a rampant Liverpool created a record xG of 7.11 from 34 shots against Newcastle as they beat the Magpies 4-2 on New Year’s Day.
It was an alarming defensive display, and not an isolated incident.
Newcastle had given up an xGA (Expected Goals Against) of over three goals in three of their previous five matches prior to that Merseyside humbling.
They have faced 65 per cent more shots per 90 minutes during the last six matches compared with between Matchweeks 1-14.
Newcastle defensive stats per 90
| Shots faced | xGA | Goals conceded | |
| First 14 matches | 11.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Last six matches | 19.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 |
A lot of Newcastle's best defensive work occurs high up the field when their forwards and midfielders work in unison to protect their back four.
When it works well they suffocate teams brilliantly, but when that press malfunctions, or if individuals are a yard too slow to apply pressure, the team are vulnerable to being sliced open.
We have seen this of late when gaping holes have appeared between the lines, and Man City will be eager to profit from similar situations at St James’ Park.
These two examples from that heavy loss at Liverpool highlight how a weak press, maybe caused by fatigue, allows Newcastle’s opponents to bypass their midfield trio with ease.
Wide-open spaces like this have appeared far more frequently, with teams playing through the structure of Howe’s 4-3-3 shape.
Struggles in middle third
Because they are applying less-intense pressure to the man in possession, Newcastle have been unable to stem the tide of successful through-balls cutting their defence apart.
They are also facing better-quality passes because of that weaker press, so they are catching fewer opponents offside than at any stage since the start of last season.
Newcastle’s best performances usually coincide with barnstorming displays from their industrious front six.
They act as a trigger for the back four to squeeze up and congest space with confidence.
But across the last six matches there has been a clear disconnect between their three units, so it is no surprise that they are regaining possession on fewer occasions inside the middle third.
Possession won in middle third per 90
| Last season | MW1-14 | MW15-20 | |
| Poss. won middle third | 24.95 | 23.36 | 18.83 |
Newcastle have been much more stretched than before, so there has been a 19 per cent drop in the number of times possession has been regained in that key domain since Matchweek 14.
Last season’s average of 24.95 ball recoveries per 90 inside the middle third is also way ahead of the current six-match average of 18.83.
Until Newcastle’s three areas start operating in synch with one another, closing off space between the lines is going to be hard to achieve.
Key Man: Bruno Guimaraes
Guimaraes has started 19 of Newcastle’s 20 Premier League matches and is an integral figure. His importance has only grown now given the the six-week absence of Joelinton announced on Friday.
Guimaraes is their second most-creative player, behind Kieran Trippier, but also the chief ball-winner, topping every defensive metric so far in 2023/24 at St James’ Park.
Guimaraes club rank for defensive stats
| Total | Newcastle rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Poss. won middle third | 16 | 1st |
| Poss. won final third | 62 | 1st |
| Ball recoveries won | 118 | 1st |
| Tackles won | 25 | 1st |
| Duels won | 135 | 1st |
The 26-year-old is naturally a box-to-box midfield influencer, but in Newcastle’s tactical framework Guimaraes plays as the No 6, with a player either side of him in the middle.
As a brilliant presser, he is encouraged to jump out of his holding position to engage with opponents inside their own half – and when it works, he has an outstanding influence.
But perhaps due to the tiredness of attackers in front of him, who have all played a lot more matches this season due to injuries, Guimaraes has been caught in no-man’s land too often.
If he is bypassed and none of his fellow midfielders have dropped in to cover, it leaves a lot of room for opponents to exploit.
To be at his effective best against Man City, Guimaraes must carefully select the right moments to apply pressure, and in turn know when to sit back and screen the central defenders.
With Sven Botman not long back from injury, the renewed partnership between Fabian Schar and Botman may benefit from extra protection in the short term.
In possession we know Guimaraes can influence any match, but his tenacious style will also be needed to disrupt City’s flow in this crunch fixture.
Diligence in that aspect of his play will be required.
He must not get drawn too far away from his deeper central position as Phil Foden, Bernardo Silva and Julian Alvarez are all talented enough to punish Newcastle if the Magpies leave themselves open again.
Also in this series
Part 1: Rejuvenated Barkley can lead Luton to Premier League safety
Part 3: Why Everton's path to a return to form lies in the air
Part 4: How can Man Utd unlock Hojlund's vast potential?