Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 21.
Player analysis - Rasmus Hojlund
The process of creating and converting quality chances must improve quickly if Manchester United are to find a way to revive their season.
Inside the final third Erik ten Hag’s side have been a major disappointment throughout the campaign, scoring only 22 times in 20 matches.
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Luton Town have found the back of the net more often than United, meaning the Red Devils are currently the division’s joint-third lowest scorers.
Up against the free-scoring Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday, a side who have netted in each of their last 32 Premier League matches, Man Utd simply have to rediscover their killer instinct.
Wasting too many chances
With most of United’s creative attackers struggling to find consistent form this season, 13 other clubs have produced more “big chances” than Ten Hag’s side’s 36.
They have failed to stretch opponents often enough through a combination of sluggishness, poor decision-making, tactical issues and disappointing execution.
Remarkably only three Man Utd players have created more than one big chance for a team-mate: Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford each with nine, and Antony with five.
Putting that into context, and further highlighting United’s lack of imagination, 12 different Manchester City players have laid on more than a single big chance this season.
Making matters worse, United have also squandered the majority of the clear-cut opportunities that have fallen their way.
As shown in the table below, Man Utd’s finishing has been way below the standards expected at Old Trafford.
PL sides' "big chances" stats 2023/24
| Teams | Big chances scored | Big chances missed |
|---|---|---|
| Sheff Utd | 6 | 20 |
| Burnley | 7 | 18 |
| Man Utd | 9 | 27 |
| Nott'm Forest | 14 | 21 |
| Luton | 14 | 17 |
Newcastle United, one place and two points below them, have successfully dispatched 34 big chances compared to their nine.
More care is required with their finishing.
Hojlund’s struggles
Despite producing some promising moments, Hojlund has scored only one league goal since joining the club.
The 20-year-old Dane has explosive pace, which should suit United’s counter-attacking strengths, but until now there has not been enough chemistry between him and side’s chief creators.
When you consider how many chances fellow fast forwards Dominic Solanke and Darwin Nunez get for their respective clubs, it is strange to note that Hojlund is at the opposite of the spectrum.
PL fastest strikers 2023/24
| Forwards | Top speed (km/h) |
|---|---|
| Dominic Solanke | 36.10 |
| Rasmus Hojlund | 35.45 |
| Eddie Nketiah | 35.43 |
| Darwin Nunez | 35.33 |
| Michail Antonio | 35.09 |
AFC Bournemouth’s Solanke has had 66 shots this season, the most of any forward, with Nunez in joint-third alongside Erling Haaland on 58.
In over 1,000 minutes of Premier League action for Man Utd, Hojlund has mustered only 19 shots on goal.
Of all the centre-forwards to have featured for around the same period, he has had the fewest attempts, which is not a great reflection on him or the service his team-mates have provided.
PL strikers stats*
| Striker | Fewest shots | Expected Goals | Goals | Mins played |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Hojlund | 19 | 3.10 | 1 | 1,034 |
| Cameron Archer | 25 | 2.94 | 3 | 1,143 |
| Raul Jimenez | 30 | 3.88 | 5 | 1,116 |
*Min. 1,000+ mins played
When strikers are not getting on the end of many chances it heaps pressure on them to find the back of the net when the ball does fall their way.
This issue seems to have affect the young Dane, who has been guilty of snatching at too many efforts.
He has the lowest conversion rate of any regular starting centre-forward, having only taken 6.25 per cent of his chances so far.
PL strikers conversion rates*
| Striker | Conversion rate (%) |
|---|---|
| Rasmus Hojlund | 6.25 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 10 |
| Darwin Nunez | 10.42 |
| Carlton Morris | 12 |
| Julian Alvarez | 15.79 |
*Min. 1,000+ mins played
It would be easy to look at a tally of nine “big chances” – all of which were spurned – and to accuse the signing from Atalanta of letting United down.
However, on closer inspection he has only missed the target once from such an opportunity, when heading Fernandes’ free-kick wide against Luton.
Four of his big chances were brilliantly saved, one was blocked and for the other three opportunities he was closed down quickly, preventing him from getting a shot away.
So, in a sense he has also been unlucky at key moments.
Hojlund’s form in the UEFA Champions League, where he scored five goals in six outings, gives United grounds for optimism moving forward.
In European competition Hojlund’s conversion rate is a mightily impressive 55.60 per cent.
His goals against Galatasaray and Copenhagen came from quick breakaways where he used his speed to get into positions to score.
Ahead of the match with Spurs, Hojlund will no doubt feel he has the tools to profit from the visitors’ high line in this key meeting at Old Trafford.
United and their summer signing have a real point to prove.
Also in this series
Part 1: Rejuvenated Barkley can lead Luton to Premier League safety
Part 2: What Newcastle must do to withstand Man City pressure
Part 3: Why Everton's path to a return to form lies in the air