Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be crucial in Matchweek 29.
Player analysis - Douglas Luiz (Aston Villa)
Unai Emery’s depleted Villa side must focus hard on defensive solidity in their key match at West Ham United.
While they will be buoyed by a handsome 4-0 success against Ajax in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday, Villa have kept only two clean sheets in their last 12 matches in domestic action.
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Thumped 4-0 at home by Tottenham Hotspur last time out, and without first-choice midfielders John McGinn (suspended) and Boubacar Kamara (injured) for this encounter, Villa can ill afford to be gung-ho at London Stadium.
Their defensive structure will need to be sound facing a West Ham side that includes in-form Jarrod Bowen, Mohammed Kudus and Lucas Paqueta.
A defensive downturn
Villa’s Expected Goals Against (xGA) tally has exceeded their season average of 1.44 in each of their last seven Premier League contests.
Their pressing has not been as effective and runners have been tracked with less enthusiasm.
Consistency is key for Emery ahead of West Ham trip
Fatigue could be a factor behind this, but from set-pieces, Villa have also looked more vulnerable too, conceding against Luton Town and Nottingham Forest in that manner.
As shown below, the deterioration of Villa’s defensive play has cost them both goals and points across this seven-match period.
Villa's defensive stats comparison 23/24
| Stat | MW 1-21 | MW 22-28 |
|---|---|---|
| xG Against | 27.09 | 13.33 |
| xG Against/90 | 1.29 | 1.90 |
| Goals conceded/90 | 1.28 | 2 |
| Points/90 | 2.04 | 1.70 |
Diligence needed from Douglas Luiz
Brazil international Douglas Luiz has been exceptional throughout 2023/24 as one of the division’s most accomplished box-to-box midfielders – but he has a different role to play on Sunday.
Without Kamara and McGinn by his side, the 25-year-old must instead marshal the central domain in front of Villa’s defence.
On the ball he will drop in between the central defenders to prompt from deep, and out of possession he must deny space for players such as Paqueta, Kudus and Bowen when they take up positions in pockets down the spine of the pitch.
The contrast between where he touched the ball from an outstanding two-goal individual performance against West Ham in October - a match Villa won 4-1 - and his role against Spurs last week was markedly different.
A more restrained approach will be required, especially given how many chances Villa have been giving up in recent weeks.
Douglas Luiz certainly has the capacity to cover plenty of ground. Against Spurs he ran a team-high 11.55km, at an average speed of 6.85km/h, which was the fastest by a Villa player.
When Spurs had the ball, he covered significantly more ground than any other team-mate too. His diligence could not be faulted.
Villa v Spurs out of possession running
| Player | Distance covered out of possession (km) |
|---|---|
| Douglas Luiz | 6.03km |
| Ollie Watkins | 5.05km |
| Pau Torres | 4.95km |
| Matty Cash | 4.84km |
| Ezri Konsa | 4.18km |
Top man Torres
Emery experimented with a 5-3-2 last Sunday, but is unlikely to repeat that, so expect Villa to revert to a more familiar 4-4-2 system that worked well for them against Ajax.
At the heart of their back four is standout central defender Pau Torres, who has been excellent since joining from Villarreal last summer.
The left-footed Spaniard brings balance and an element of calm to Villa's defence, which always looks more secure when he is fully fit and available.
Although Torres did play in last week’s heavy home loss to Spurs, the season stats bear this out, and Villa boast a markedly improved record when he starts.
Villa with/without Torres starting 23/24
| Statistic | Starts | Non-starts |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 19 | 9 |
| Wins | 14 | 3 |
| Points/match | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded/match | 1.2 | 2 |
Playing to the left of centre, Torres will have to use his defensive nous to shackle on-song Bowen, who prefers to occupy that channel, whether he starts as a striker or on the right of West Ham's attack.
This is a key duel to watch on Sunday.
In possession, Torres also plays a pivotal role for Emery’s side, and is adept at carrying the ball out of defence before making progressive forward passes into midfield, or even into the final third.
The Hammers tend to defend in a mid-block, so he will be allowed to bring the ball forward out of defence.
Villa carries 23/24
| Player | Total carries/90 |
|---|---|
| Pau Torres | 26 |
| Diego Carlos | 20 |
| Douglas Luiz | 17 |
| Leon Bailey | 16 |
| Ezri Konsa | 15 |
Making 8.88 successful passes into the final third per 90 minutes, Torres’ distribution should help relieve pressure and spark direct attacks.
Even if Ollie Watkins is ruled out through injury, after a cut to his knee forced him off in Thursday's 4-0 win over Ajax, Jhon Duran and Moussa Diaby are both willing runners who will chase forward passes made by Torres.
With Spurs breathing down their necks in the race for a top-four finish, Villa will be targeting a valuable three points.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
38 | +15 | 68 |
| 5 |
Spurs
TOT
|
38 | +13 | 66 |
| 6 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
38 | +14 | 63 |
To prevail, though, Villa will need mature, composed and combative displays from Douglas Luiz and Torres.
If Emery’s side, led by these two stalwarts, defend with more conviction than they have shown so far in 2024, Villa have every chance of making it four away league wins in a row.
