Who is the best FPL captain for Gameweek 38?

Cole Palmer's (£6.3m) home form in his breakout season in Fantasy Premier League shows why he is the best armband alternative to Erling Haaland (£14.3m) for the final Gameweek of 2023/24.

Haaland’s run of six goals in his last three outings have taken Manchester City to within touching distance of the title ahead of their encounter with West Ham United at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday.

As the most-popular player in Fantasy, with an ownership in excess of 72 per cent, the Norwegian has the form and fixture to ensure he will also be the most-captained player in Gameweek 38.

Palmer’s displays at Stamford Bridge, however, suggest he can outperform Haaland this weekend, when Chelsea host AFC Bournemouth.

How have Haaland and Palmer fared at home?

Palmer’s consistency in home matches this season has bordered on the absurd. 

The midfielder has blanked just once in his 12 home starts in his debut season for the Blues, which equates to a 91.8 per cent success rate.

In the 11 matches in which he produced an attacking return (a goal or an assist), Palmer averages 12.0 points per match (ppm).

Haaland, meanwhile, has started 14 matches at the Etihad Stadium this season.

He produced an attacking return in 10 of them, which equates to a 71.4 per cent consistency. The striker averaged 10.6ppm across those 10 successful outings. 

Man City's tussle for the title with Arsenal is also likely to promote interest in Haaland’s team-mate Phil Foden (£8.5m), as well as the Gunners’ Bukayo Saka (£8.9m), who has a home fixture against Everton.

Yet Mohamed Salah (£13.4m) could be a better option in Liverpool’s final match under Jurgen Klopp, at home to Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Salah has only three blanks in 14 starts at Anfield, which means he has produced attacking returns in 78.6 per cent of them. The Egyptian averaged 10.1ppm in the 11 matches in which he either scored or assisted.

Foden’s upside is also clear to see. In the 10 matches he has been successful, he has averaged 9.7ppm, very similar to Salah.

However, the Man City midfielder clearly carries more risk – six blanks in 16 starts gives him a reliability rating of just 62.5 per cent at home. 

The statistics also highlight the huge potential offered by Michael Olise (£5.7m) at home to Aston Villa.

Although six home starts is perhaps too small a sample size to justify his credentials, the Crystal Palace midfielder blanked only once in those encounters. Olise has earned 65 points in those five outings at an average of 13.0ppm. 

Home starts,  2023/24

Who's had the most attacking threat in home matches?

Salah's statistics in home matches certainly suggest he can rival Haaland and Palmer for output.

The Egyptian has been involved in a league-high 34 big chances in such encounters, equating to an average of 36.9 minutes per big-chance involvement at Anfield.

There are positives for both Palmer and Haaland here, too. Palmer's 27.1 per cent goal conversion is the best on show, while his 34 key passes is more or less identical to the 36 of Salah.

Haaland's 23 big chances takes top spot ahead of the 22 of Salah, while his average of 46.4 minutes per big-chance involvement is over three times as fast as Foden's at the Etihad. 

Saka's lowly 12.1 per cent goal conversion is offputting should be be fit to face Everton, although he does lead the way here for key passes, with 48.

Player attacking threat, home matches

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Who's been in the best form?

At this point in the analysis, Haaland, Palmer and Salah look the best options due to Saka and Foden's poor farings above.

Haaland's peerless goal threat has been very much in evidence over his last four matches.

His total of eight big chances is more than the combined five of Palmer and Salah. The Norwegian is thriving on those high-quality scoring opportunities, converting a hefty 46.7 per cent of his shots. 

Palmer's creavitity keeps him very much in contention, though. The Chelsea midfielder's 12 key passes are twice the combined six of his two rivals, while he also created five big chances.

Salah's numbers are a little more concerning. Granted, he's had only two fewer shots in the box than Haaland in his last four outings, yet the Liverpool star has converted only 7.1 per cent of his shots. He's also been far less creative relative to Palmer, too.

Player attacking threat, last four matches

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What about their opponents?

Assessing the opposition team numbers can help managers pinpoint the weakest defences to target.

There’s no doubt that the season data lends more weight to Haaland’s armband credentials.

In away matches this season, West Ham have conceded more goals, shots in the box and big chances than either Bournemouth or Wolves.

The Cherries’ total of 47 big chances conceded is as many as 19 fewer than the Hammers, who place second-bottom for this statistic this season. 

In saying that, Bournemouth have been just as susceptible to conceding double-figure hauls in away matches, mirroring the 16 of West Ham.

Opposition away matches, 2023/24

So, who is the best captain?

Whereas Salah’s waning form does go against him, there’s almost nothing to split Haaland and Palmer, with both looking likely to score big. 

Haaland’s hefty number of big chances and accompanying goal conversion rate suggests he is back to his very best and there’d be no surprise if he has a defining role to play in Sunday’s finale.

Yet Palmer’s record at Stamford Bridge seems almost too reliable to go against. The Chelsea midfielder’s extra points for a goal and a clean sheet, added to his superior creativity, suggests Haaland will need to do something extra-special to outperform him.