Title race: Who are Man City's biggest challengers?

It hasn’t taken long for the Premier League’s usual contenders to rise to the summit.

Manchester City and Liverpool are the only teams with 100 per cent records going into the first international break and Arsenal are only two points back after a decidedly more difficult set of fixtures to kick off their 2024/25 campaign.

Brighton & Hove Albion and Newcastle United are level with Arsenal on seven points, hinting at the possibility of an outsider joining the race this season, but even at this early juncture, it looks likely that another three-horse race will emerge.

Top five

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
1	Man City MCI	4	+8	12
2	Arsenal ARS	4	+5	10
3	Newcastle NEW	4	+3	10
4	Liverpool LIV	4	+6	9
5	Aston Villa AVL	4	+1	9

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Last season it wasn’t until mid-April that a three-way tussle became two, when Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool ran out of energy.

It might be very early into the 2024/25 season, but the signs are positive that both Liverpool and Arsenal can at least take it that far again. Alex Keble analyses the early hopefuls. 

Slot’s smooth transition makes Liverpool contenders

Three wins and three clean sheets is the perfect start for Liverpool.

The basis of Arne Slot’s success so far has been instigating a calmer and more considered possession game, with Liverpool willing to kill momentum and recycle the ball backwards when necessary.

This allows them to stay in more regimented positions from within their new 4-2-3-1 formation (which, with two No 6s, is more secure against counter-attacks) and prevents those wildly stretched shapes we saw from Klopp's free-flowing attacking football.

But what’s particularly interesting about Slot’s start is that elements of Klopp’s football remain.

Trent Alexander-Arnold continues to roam across several positions at once and play sweeping diagonals, while Virgil van Dijk’s long-balls to Mohamed Salah have continued and they also transition with speed, leading to Luis Diaz's goal against Brentford.

 Diaz's goal v Brentford

Whether this is simply a hangover that reflects Liverpool mid-transition, or whether Slot has deliberately played a hybrid of the two systems, it has so far worked a treat – as the underlying numbers show.

Liverpool rank second in the division for Expected Goals (xG), with 7.1, and third for Expected Goals Against (xGA), with 2.4, as well as second for both shots, with 48 and shots against, with 23, indicating they have deserved their good start, with strong showings at both ends.

On the style shift, a small but subtle movement towards shorter passes and away from progressive passes and carries reveals that Slot is changing the tactics without entirely dismissing his predecessor’s ideas.

What’s more, Slot’s greater rigidity in the team’s structure has made Liverpool more compact and less open to being countered, which again is captured in the data.

Klopp's Liverpool v Slot's Liverpool

There is one player responsible for this shift more than any other, and that’s Slot’s Dutch compatriot Ryan Gravenberch, who has come to the fore as a calmly-controlling No 6 and symbol of the new regime.

His numbers have changed dramatically compared with last season, and it’s noteworthy that this includes a tendency to carry the ball less. Slot wants Liverpool to be less direct than under Klopp.

Gravenberch stats last two seasons

Gravenberch, more than anyone else, is responsible for the cool efficiency with which Liverpool have won their first three matches to nil, a feat that only two managers in Premier League history have ever achieved in their debut season.

One of them was Jose Mourinho, who in 2004/05 won the title and set a record for the fewest goals conceded in a season, with 15.

That’s a good omen, and better yet for Liverpool fans, the last time their club won the first three matches to nil was 2018/19, the season they totalled 97 points.

It’s far too early for that sort of talk. But we’ve seen enough to suggest Slot is taking the best of Klopp and adding defensive control. A title challenge is on.

Liverpool's next five Premier League fixtures

Liverpool

15:00 Sat 21 Sep BOU (H) 17:30 Sat 28 Sep WOL (A) 12:30 Sat 05 Oct CRY (A) 16:30 Sun 20 Oct CHE (H) 16:30 Sun 27 Oct ARS (A)

Liverpool

15:00 Sat 21 Sep BOU (H) 17:30 Sat 28 Sep WOL (A) 12:30 Sat 05 Oct CRY (A) 16:30 Sun 20 Oct CHE (H) 16:30 Sun 27 Oct ARS (A)

Haaland, Lewis and Gundogan can rejuvenate Man City

On the one hand, it’s same old Man City: three wins from three, all at a canter, and football played in the Pep Guardiola way.

At first glance there isn’t much to talk about, other than to say they are hitting superb numbers – as usual – to show that they have no difficultly motivating themselves after breaking the final record there was to break: four successive Premier League titles.

Man City xG/shot stats 24/25

But there are several Man City players whose roles or influence have changed over the summer, the most obvious being Erling Haaland, whose consecutive hat-tricks took him to SEVEN goals across the opening three matches.

The scary part is that Haaland looks considerably sharper than at any point last season, and that Guardiola has informed us that the Norwegian is fully fit for the first time in a City shirt.

“He’s playing much better in everything,” Guardiola said last Saturday.

“He stays 20 minutes or half an hour after training sessions. Last season not even once was he there because he didn’t feel good – tired, niggles.”

It looks as though Haaland is going to be better than ever this campaign, suggesting his 36-goal record haul in 2022/23 is under threat.

That alone is enough to assume Man City will again be title favourites, but there’s more.

Rico Lewis has been a big hit so far, starting all three Premier League matches and demoting Kyle Walker to the bench.

Lewis’s brilliant close control in tight spaces has allowed Guardiola to use an inverted full-back again, and after a season of playing four centre-backs, his build-up play has reverted to using a full-back as a central midfielder.

That’s a substantial tactical shift, and one that so far nobody has been able to handle.

It gives Guardiola options to keep changing and to keep opponents on their toes – as does the re-signing of Ilkay Gundogan.

The 33-year-old could be a game-changer. He is three things at once: the perfect replacement for Julian Alvarez, the box-crashing and goalscoring No 8 Man City have missed, and a safe pair of hands to defend alongside Rodri in tougher fixtures.

A scorer of big goals in big moments, Gundogan is a club legend who will be a huge player for Guardiola this season.

After all, at Barcelona last season, his 97 chances created were more than any other player in LaLiga.

When you add in Savinho, who has started brightly, and consider that Rodri and Phil Foden are still to come back in, Man City look stronger than they have done in years.

Timber & Sterling to help Arsenal take extra step

Arsenal, too, are stronger than last season, and despite dropping points last weekend, have what it takes to make up the two points that separated them from Man City in 2023/24.

We should not read too much into the 1-1 draw at home to Brighton. Declan Rice’s red card completely changed the match, and before he went off, the visitors had amassed a meagre 0.1 xG over the first 49 minutes.

Arsenal were on track for another solid win and on course to emulate Liverpool’s 100 per cent start with three clean sheets.

In fact, even after Rice went off, Mikel Arteta was unlucky that Brighton broke through a weakened midfield to score with the final move before he could get Riccardo Calafiori on to switch to a 3-5-1 shape that subsequently shut Brighton down.

Joao Pedro's goal v Arsenal

These things happen. Arsenal won’t often be in that situation. In fact, their defensive record is likely to improve this season, with Calafiori and Jurrien Timber as options.

In key moments last season, it was a weakness at left-back that did for Arsenal. Oleksandr Zinchenko's errors led to the opener in a 2-0 home defeat by West Ham United and the last-gasp equaliser in the 2-2 draw with 10-man Fulham, while Jakub Kiwior was too easily beaten at the back post for the first goal in a 2-1 defeat by Fulham.

Timber hasn’t put a foot wrong so far. What’s more, he has looked comfortable stepping into midfield to make Arsenal even more secure against opposition counter-attacks.

The stats don’t look particularly good so far, but only because having 10 men for nearly half the match against Brighton has skewed such a small sample size.

We will know more after Arsenal’s next two matches, which happen to be two of the most difficult fixtures in the campaign, trips to Tottenham Hotspur and Man City.

Arsenal's next five Premier League fixtures

Arsenal

16:30 Sun 22 Sep MCI (A) 15:00 Sat 28 Sep LEI (H) 15:00 Sat 05 Oct SOU (H) 17:30 Sat 19 Oct BOU (A) 16:30 Sun 27 Oct LIV (H)

Arsenal

16:30 Sun 22 Sep MCI (A) 15:00 Sat 28 Sep LEI (H) 15:00 Sat 05 Oct SOU (H) 17:30 Sat 19 Oct BOU (A) 16:30 Sun 27 Oct LIV (H)

But there is reason for optimism, not just because of Timber’s influence, but the potential impact of Raheem Sterling, too.

Last season Gabriel Martinelli scored only six Premier League goals (and three of those were as a substitute, the winner against Man City at home and at home to Crystal Palace, with Arsenal already 3-0 up), while Leandro Trossard scored 12 from the left wing.

Arsenal needed to relieve some of the pressure on Bukayo Saka on the other side, and Sterling – who worked with Arteta at Man City – could be just the player to do it.

Sterling managed 21 goals or assists across 45 Premier League starts for Chelsea, a superb record considering the issues at the club.

Arteta will hope to get him back to his Man City levels, when Sterling consistently hit double figures for goals by popping up in the six-yard box.

It could make all the difference in those tight encounters, or on those days when Arsenal are below their best but need to scrape a result.

More than for Liverpool or Man City, Arsenal’s plus points are hypothetical at the moment. But Calafiori, a rejuvenated Timber and Sterling are big additions. Arteta’s side should be at least as good as last season.

The only problem is the fixture list. Spurs and Man City away could easily see four or more points dropped, while in the same period, Liverpool are at home to Nottingham Forest and AFC Bournemouth while Man City host Brentford.

That means Arsenal could be at least six points behind Man City and Liverpool when we pause for a second international break.

Brighton one of five clubs hoping to break through

It feels unlikely that anyone else will be able to challenge Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool in a three-horse race at the top, but understandably some Brighton supporters might be indulged to get carried away after their strong start to the season.

Seven points from matches against Manchester United, Arsenal and Everton is a hugely impressive start from Fabian Hurzeler, and with a reported £200million spent in the summer, it is plausible Brighton will take a big leap forward in 2024/25.

The standard, however, is 90+ points, and even their early statistics tell us that is out of the question: for all their goals, and the fourth-highest xG in the division, with 5.3, they have conceded a mid-table xGA of 4.0.

Hurzeler’s football is open and attacking, which will be entertaining, but that has not been the right approach for a moon shot at a title challenge.

Aston Villa are likely to be worn down by UEFA Champions League football, taking them out of the equation, and early dropped points for Chelsea, Spurs, and Newcastle United already tells us that they will struggle to come near a top three that are years ahead in their development.

But all five clubs look much stronger, and with considerably deeper benches than in 2023/24, which in turn could have an impact on the title race. Premier League games are getting harder and harder, even for the big three at the top.

There will be dozens of twists and turns ahead. But on the early evidence, it will be just as exciting – perhaps even more so – than the three-way battle we witnessed last spring.