The Scout assesses Cole Palmer’s (£10.6m) early displays in 2024/25 Fantasy Premier League under Chelsea's new head coach Enzo Maresca, comparing the midfielder's stats with those from his first four starts last season.
Cole Palmer (Chelsea)
Managers in Fantasy may be questioning whether they are getting enough value from the third most-expensive player in the game.
After he blanked in Gameweek 4, for the second time in his opening four matches, let's delve into some data to see whether there are encouraging signs or worrying trends.
Palmer has picked up 28 points in his first four matches of the new season under Maresca, scoring once and supplying four assists.
Those numbers are actually slightly better than his first four starts under Mauricio Pochettino in Gameweeks 7-10 in 2023/24.
Palmer produced two goals, an assist and 25 points in those encounters, en route to becoming the highest-scoring player for Fantasy points across the season.
Palmer's first four starts 23/24 v 24/25
| Manager | Goal involvements | Goals | Assists | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maresca | 5 | 1 | 4 | 28 |
| Pochettino | 3 | 2 | 1 | 24 |
Has Palmer’s goal threat been reduced under Maresca?
The midfielder has had nine shots so far for Maresca’s Chelsea, just two fewer than his 11 for Pochettino across his first four starts last season.
Palmer shot location comparison
However, Palmer’s influence in the penalty area seems to have dipped. His seven touches in the box are less than HALF of his total of 18 from his early appearances in 2023/24.
This has resulted in a slump in big chances, down from four last season to just ONE this time around. He is getting fewer shots in the box, with that number slipping from five to two, and he is therefore converting fewer of his shots into goals, down from 18.2 per cent to 11.1 per cent.
Indeed, his only goal – and both his shots on target – have come from outside the box.
Palmer's attacking threat in first four starts
| Manager | Touches in box | Shots | Shots in box | Big chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maresca | 7 | 9 | 2 | 1 |
| Pochettino | 18 | 11 | 5 | 4 |
Is Palmer more likely to get assists this season?
The numbers for Palmer's creativity further highlight his change of role in the opening four Gameweeks of 2024/25.
His 12 key passes are three times the total of any team-mate and rank fourth among all players. Furthermore, he is making a key pass more regularly, averaging one every 29 minutes this season compared with 42 minutes last campaign.
Palmer’s four big chances created, meanwhile, are just one off the five of Dwight McNeil (£5.4m) at the summit among all players.
Palmer's creativity in first four starts
| Manager | Mins/key pass | Key passes | Big chances created |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maresca | 29 | 12 | 4 |
| Pochettino | 42 | 8 | 3 |
What do Expected Goal Involvement numbers say?
There’s no denying that the Expected Goal Involvement (xGI) statistics are a little worrying for Palmer’s prospects.
His Expected Goals (xG) score of 2.33 in his first four starts for Pochettino was significantly better than his 0.83 for Maresca.
And despite Palmer's impressive number of key passes in 2024/25, his figure for Expected Assists (xA) has actually taken a turn for the worse, down from 1.29 to 0.96.
Notably, while Palmer has produced five goal involvements this season, with one goal and four assists, his xGI figure is only 1.79. This means he has significantly overperformed his Expected Goal Involvement by +3.21 (a figure which is called his "xGI Delta"), and that can be a concern.
By contrast, in his first four starts under Pochettino last season Palmer's xGI was higher, at 3.62, so he underachieved that figure with his actual total of three.
Palmer's expected stats in first four starts
| Manager | xG | xA | xGI | xGI Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maresca | 0.83 | 0.96 | 1.79 | +3.21 |
| Pochettino | 2.33 | 1.29 | 3.62 | -0.62 |
How does Palmer compare with other expensive stars?
It’s something of an understatement to say that Palmer’s close-range goal threat compares poorly with that of a host of other premium-priced players in Fantasy.
Erling Haaland (£15.2m) has produced 18 shots in the box to Palmer’s two, while Mohamed Salah (£12.7m), Bukayo Saka (£10.0m) and Ollie Watkins (£8.9m) have each produced at least 10.
However, Palmer has bettered his rivals for key passes and big chances created, attesting to his role as Maresca’s chief creator.
Palmer's attacking stats compared with rivals 24/25
| Player | Shots in box | Big chances | Key passes | Big chances created |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland | 18 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| Salah | 12 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Watkins | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| Saka | 10 | 3 | 10 | 3 |
| Palmer | 2 | 1 | 12 | 4 |
So, what should Palmer owners do?
If his lack of threat in and around the penalty box continues, there have to be concerns over Palmer’s ability to mirror his 22 league goals from last season.
On the upside, Chelsea have a favourable short-term schedule that can help the midfielder get back to his best.
According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), each of their next three matches - against West Ham United, Brighton & Hove Albion and Nottingham Forest – score only two.
As witnessed by his 90-minute runout against AFC Bournemouth last weekend, Palmer's pitch time looks the most secure of any Chelsea attacker after he was omitted from their squad for the UEFA Europa Conference League.
Maresca's side are, nonetheless, still very much a work in progress this early into his debut season at the helm. With Salah and Saka currently offering far more goal threat, Palmer's appeal as a premium midfielder pick seems to be on the wane.
