Football writer Alex Keble analyses where the weekend fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Can Haaland be the king of the chess match?
- How Brentford could put pressure on Postecoglou
- Will Villa sink teeth into struggling Wolves?
- Can Kudus capitalise on Gusto's absence?
- Is Slot going to inspire positive response to setback?
- Can in-form Vardy or Calvert-Lewin strike decisive blow?
- Will Martin or McKenna enjoy first Premier League win?
- Can Palace kickstart their season against Man Utd?
- Will Brighton get sucker-punched by Forest's direct attacks?
- Can Howe's Newcastle eclipse Keegan's "Entertainers"?
Can Haaland make the difference in another cagey chess match?
There was a time when Manchester City versus Arsenal was full of goals, when high-intensity encounters ending in 5-0, 4-1 and 3-1 wins for Pep Guardiola’s side showcased some of the best of the Premier League's attacking flair.
But last season that all changed. Mikel Arteta had seen enough action, enough defensive mistakes, and decided to shut up shop. Arsenal sat deep and dug in, keeping clean sheets home and away.
How do you break down a low block as good as Arsenal’s? When Guardiola was asked that question after the 0-0 draw at the Etihad Stadium in March he puffed out his cheeks and offered the only solution he could think of: “Kill someone?!”
And so begins a new phase of this emerging rivalry, one that takes its cues from the Rafael Benitez and Jose Mourinho years in the mid-2000s. Get ready for another chess match on Sunday.
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The thing is, chess doesn’t have to be boring. There will still be intensity, quality and tension.
More than that, as Arsenal showed in a similarly defensive performance at Tottenham Hotspur last weekend, in the second half they could open up a little and go for the win.
Meanwhile, Guardiola has had five months to come up with a better idea than the one he had in March's meeting with Arteta, although he may not need it. With Erling Haaland in this form, Guardiola does have a killer, and that might be the difference.
Will Brentford put Postecoglou under pressure?
The pressure is - ever so slightly - building on Ange Postecoglou, who this week bullishly reasserted that he “always” wins things in his second year.
Spurs have been on the slide for a while now. Since that brilliant first 10 matches of last season they have won only 44 points from the last 32 Premier League games, including four from four this campaign.
It’s their fewest at this stage of a season since 2015/16 and the club have not lost three of their first five matches since 2008/09, when Juande Ramos ended up leaving the club just eight winless matches into that campaign.
There’s no reason to compare Postecoglou to Ramos but nevertheless the Spurs head coach cannot afford to drop more points on Saturday against Brentford.
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Postecoglou's team have lost seven of their last 11 Premier League matches. Only Wolverhampton Wanderers, with eight losses, have suffered more defeats since that run began on 13 April.
Brentford could make it eight in 12. Thomas Frank’s side know how to sit deep and soak up pressure and how to counter-attack quickly behind a high line. They will copy the Arsenal blueprint, not least by targeting Spurs’ well-documented problem defending set-pieces.
Since the start of last season only Everton have created a higher Expected Goals (xG) total from set-plays than Brentford. That should worry Postecoglou.
Can Villa reset their home form against struggling Wolves?
Aston Villa’s impressive 3-0 victory at Young Boys in their inaugural UEFA Champions League match this week makes it four wins from five in all competitions at the start of the new campaign - and laughs off any concerns about a six-match winless run that ended last season.
But if any part of that slowdown is still lingering, it’s Villa’s home form.
Unai Emery’s side haven’t won back-to-back league matches at Villa Park since early December. They have won only three of their last eight games at home, and have conceded 26 goals in their last 12 home contests.
Villa have conceded at least twice in 10 of those 12 matches, keeping just one clean sheet: a 2-0 win against this weekend’s opponents, Wolves.
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Here is a chance to reset, then. Wolves have won just one of their last 14 matches in the Premier League and are winless in seven, while only Everton have conceded more than the 11 goals of Wolves.
Coming off the back of an emphatic victory against Young Boys, Villa are well positioned to win consecutive home matches for the first time in nine months. But Emery won’t be satisfied unless the success also comes with a rare clean sheet.
Will West Ham and Kudus punish Chelsea where Bournemouth could not?
The early kick-off on Saturday could be the highlight of the weekend.
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West Ham United have faced 73 shots in the Premier League this season - more than any other side - mainly because they are struggling to compress space in the early days of their major tactical transition from David Moyes to Julen Lopetegui.
Chelsea can be pulled into end-to-end matches if there are chances to tear through the opposition, as we saw in their recent 6-2 victory over Wolves but also, to a lesser extent, in last weekend's 1-0 win at AFC Bournemouth which could have been higher-scoring.
The Cherries amassed an xG of 1.78 to Chelsea’s 0.78, primarily by targeting right-back Axel Disasi. Marcus Tavernier completed six progressive carries, more than any other player on the pitch, while Disasi missed both of his attempted tackles.
It was a clear mismatch, and in Malo Gusto’s continued absence this weekend, West Ham winger Mohammed Kudus will be licking his lips. No player has had more successful take-ons in the Premier League this season than the 16 of Kudus, who has also created more "big chances", with two, than any other Hammers player.
If this does indeed become a stretched encounter with chances at both ends, Kudus versus Disasi will be the key battle to keep an eye on.
Can Liverpool bounce straight back after Forest defeat?
Losing to Nottingham Forest was quite the body blow. Everything had been running smoothly for Arne Slot but the nature of his first defeat at Anfield - Liverpool, slow and unsure, never looked like scoring - has raised a few questions about the new regime.
There’s no need to get carried away. There were always going to be bumps on the road in this transitional year post-Jurgen Klopp, although one or two Liverpool supporters might have needed to recalibrate their expectations after last weekend’s defeat.
But we can legitimately get worried if they lose again on Saturday.
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Liverpool haven’t lost consecutive home Premier League matches since March 2021, when they infamously went on a run of six losses in a row in the stunning low point of the Klopp era.
It would be a significant concern should Liverpool make a habit of losing at Anfield - and AFC Bournemouth could be tricky opponents. Only Brighton & Hove Albion and Man City have had more shots than Bournemouth's 65 this season.
Then again, Forest are arguably the worst kind of opponent for a Slot team because they sit so deep and counter-attack so effectively. Bournemouth are more open, more progressive and - in theory - more vulnerable to Liverpool’s attacking play.
Will Vardy or Calvert-Lewin come out on top in crucial six-pointer?
This weekend provides the first and second "six-pointers" of the 2024/25 Premier League season. Southampton host Ipswich Town while Leicester City play Everton at the same time on Saturday.
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The King Power Stadium is likely to be the higher-quality encounter, chiefly because there are two in-form strikers on the prowl.
Jamie Vardy, who has already scored twice this season, has been involved in 12 goals in his last eight league starts against teams starting the day bottom of the table. Even more ominously for Everton fans, Vardy has seven goals in 14 appearances against the Toffees.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin also has two Premier League goals to his name in 2024/25 and was Everton’s best player in last weekend’s 3-2 defeat at Villa Park, scoring in the first half before hitting the crossbar after the break.
Either Vardy or Calvert-Lewin will likely provide the moment of lift-off.
Will Martin or McKenna will get their first Premier League win?
Between them, Southampton and Ipswich - both winless - have scored only three goals in eight Premier League matches this season.
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This looks a key duel because current evidence suggests it will be difficult for BOTH of these promoted clubs to stay up.
Kieran McKenna's Ipswich are on their longest winless start to a top-flight season since 1984/85, while Southampton are yet to lead for a single minute of a match and have spent a league-high 208 minutes in a losing position.
The visitors are the favourites.
Ipswich have been considerably more competitive than their hosts, drawing both of their league matches that haven’t been against one of last season’s top three teams. On the other hand, Russell Martin’s Saints have lost all four of their games and are yet to play anyone who finished in the top six last campaign.
What’s more, Ipswich beat Southampton home and away in the Championship last season, winning 1-0 at St Mary’s and 3-2 at Portman Road.
Can Crystal Palace kickstart their season?
Manchester United are not necessarily on the road to recovery.
Their last Premier League match ended in a simple 3-0 victory, but for half an hour Southampton were by far the better team at St Mary’s. Indeed, had Cameron Archer opened the scoring by converting his penalty the result might have been very different.
There is danger at Selhurst Park this weekend.
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Crystal Palace did the double over Man Utd last season, while United have lost two of their last three away matches at Palace. The most recent, in early May, was a thumping 4-0 win for Oliver Glasner’s side.
This might be just the fixture Palace need to end their winless start to the 2024/25 Premier League season and rediscover their spring form.
But this isn’t the same team as the one in May, not quite. Michael Olise, who scored twice in that 4-0 win, has been a huge loss. It’s up to Eberechi Eze and Jean-Philippe Mateta, who has scored 15 goals in 17 matches for Glasner, to fill the void.
How will Hurzeler tactics fare against first fast-break opponents?
Nott'm Forest have already knocked Liverpool off their perch, and now they travel to Brighton looking to repeat the trick in very similar circumstances.
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Fabian Hurzeler’s side, like Slot’s, are built on controlled possession and a solid defensive record, and so, just like Liverpool, this fixture is a big test of Brighton’s ability to deal with an out-and-out counter-attacking team.
The evidence so far isn’t as good as results suggest. Brighton have conceded two goals from an xG of 4.4, suggesting they have got a bit lucky, while only West Ham have had more direct attacks against them than the 12 of Brighton.
Forest, meanwhile, have had 12 direct attacks, more than any other side.
It’s a pretty serious mismatch that suggests Brighton could get counter-attacked and sucker-punched - as Liverpool were.
Hudson-Odoi's winner v Liverpool
Still got this on repeat 🔂 pic.twitter.com/RCaLVE2ngj
— Nottingham Forest (@NFFC) September 16, 2024
Can Newcastle eclipse the start from Keegan’s "Entertainers"?
Taking 10 points from the first four matches of the season is Newcastle's best start to a Premier League campaign since Kevin Keegan’s side won 12 points in 1995/96, the year they came so close to winning the title.
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Keegan’s team, dubbed "The Entertainers", peaked that season, winning 78 points following a brilliant start but falling just short after a collapse in the second half of the season.
Yet even in 1995/96 Newcastle lost their fifth match of the campaign, meaning if Eddie Howe’s side win at Fulham on Saturday they will have more points at this stage than Keegan's team.
If that isn’t motivation enough, Arsenal facing Man City on Sunday means that there is a possibility Newcastle could be top of the league come Monday.
