How Forest's fast breaks can catch Brighton out

Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 5.

Match analysis - Brighton v Nott'm Forest

Unbeaten Nott'm Forest are yet to concede a goal on the road this season, and will be confident their disciplined brand of counter-attacking football is robust enough to handle Brighton this weekend.

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Brighton have already racked up a division-high 67 non-penalty shots under new head coach Fabian Hurzeler.

However, prising open Nuno Espirito Santo’s fast-improving side will not be straightforward.

Each of Forest’s last three opponents have registered less than one Expected Goals (xG) - including Liverpool at Anfield, whose total of 0.94 was their lowest xG tally on home turf since May 2023.

Relishing their work off the ball

The key ingredient for Nott'm Forest right now is the way their players are pulling together with enthusiasm, showing an appetite to work hard out of possession.

Their front four tend to be narrow without the ball, blocking off central passing lanes, and encouraging opponents to move the ball wide.

This image from their 1-0 success at Southampton is a good example of what Forest do.

Once opponents shift the ball towards the flanks, Nuno’s players close down in a well-drilled and aggressive manner, as they turn possession over in their favour.

Full-back Ola Aina is brilliant in this department, ranking second among Premier League defenders for possession won, with 28, while his nine interceptions is the fourth-highest.

Last weekend at Anfield, left-back Alex Moreno also won six of his seven tackles.

Forest’s defensive chalkboard from their excellent 1-0 win at Liverpool, below, paints a picture of this style of play, with Nuno's side protecting the middle before targeting regains out wide.

Nott'm Forest do not press high very often, instead adopting a mid-to-low block.

In general, they have been one of the most productive defensive sides so far, winning the ball back with greater frequency than the majority of teams.

It is their industry inside the middle third, however, which has improved most.

At the end of 2023/24 only two top-flight sides had won the ball on fewer occasions inside that area, but after four matches of this season Forest rank second.

Forest's defensive improvement 24/25

Midfield enforcer Ibrahim Sangare has won nine tackles, but it is the high-tempo pressure everyone applies as a collective which has made the difference.

Brighton will need to move the ball well to avoid play being broken up by Forest.

Formidable partnership developing

Serbian Nikola Milenkovic has also formed a blossoming centre-back partnership alongside 22-year-old Brazilian Murillo.

Although neither player is especially quick, they work well to repel danger through blocks, tackles, clearances and interceptions.

In their three appearances together, Forest have conceded only one goal - and that was a 25-yard screamer from Wolverhampton Wanderers’ Jean-Ricner Bellegarde.

Milenkovic and Murillo are strong and aggressive and they are the ones who have set the tone for Forest’s improvement off the ball.

Brighton must be wary of counters

Callum Hudson-Odoi scored a superb winner at Liverpool from a rapid breakaway, and this approach forms a large part of Nuno’s tactical planning.

Hudson-Odoi's winner v Liverpool

Forest do not hesitate to launch a swift attack the moment they regain possession.

Morgan Gibbs-White, pictured below against Southampton, is often at the heart of these counters, with Forest's front three always primed and ready to explode into life.

As a possession-based side, Brighton will need to ensure they do not give the ball away cheaply when players are ahead of it.

Forest are currently top in the division when it comes to attacking at pace and producing shots at the end of breakaways.

Most potent attacking threat 24/25

Wide men will have their say

The wingers on both teams are likely to play a significant role in the outcome of this encounter.

Both Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga are in terrific form, whether used from the start, or as impact subs after half-time.

Brighton's new signing Yankuba Minteh and Japanese star Kaoru Mitoma are also a huge threat when running with the ball.

In 1v1 situations they will all give full-backs differing problems to solve.

Brighton v Forest wingers' comparison

Beware of turnovers

Respective head coaches Hurzeler and Nuno will be pleased with their teams’ solidity, conceding only two Premier League goals apiece so far.

Each will be acutely aware though of the danger their opponents’ present from fast transitions.

These situations are bound to occur regularly, as Brighton and Forest are excellent at breaking up play.

It will be the side who best deals with those changes of possession that is most likely to prevail.

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