Football writer Alex Keble looks at why the goals have dried up for Erling Haaland recently, and whether another purple patch could be around the corner.
A little over three weeks ago, Erling Haaland’s incredible Premier League form had us predicting a record-breaking season for the Norwegian.
Ten goals in five matches was remarkable even by his standards and when Pep Guardiola reasoned it was because Haaland was fully fit for the very first time, well, it looked like game over for Manchester City’s rivals.
How quickly things change in football.
Haaland is now on a three-match goal drought in the Premier League. In that time Man City have drawn with Newcastle United, beaten Fulham 3-2 in a match that could easily have swung the other way, and edged past Wolverhampton Wanderers only with a corner in the fifth minute of second-half stoppage time.
The champions could do with Haaland scoring again. But a deep dive into his numbers suggests the problem actually lies elsewhere.
Fewer big chances in October
As we might expect considering his phenomenal start to the 2024/25 campaign, Haaland’s statistics compare favourably with his first two seasons in Manchester.
Haaland's shot accuracy by season
| Season | Goals per 90 mins | Big chance conversion | Shooting accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | 1.17 | 52.5% | 56.1% |
| 2023/24 | 0.95 | 38.2% | 60.2% |
| 2024/25 | 1.25 | 70.0% | 76.7% |
That 70 per cent big chance conversion rate is instructive, because although Haaland isn’t scoring every single big chance this season he is scoring directly in line with this number, netting 10 Premier League goals so far and receiving 10 big chances.
Big chances/goals by season
| Season | Big chance total | Goals |
|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | 59 | 36 |
| 2023/24 | 55 | 27 |
| 2024/25 | 10 | 10 |
From this perspective the reason for Haaland’s dry spell is easy to spot: in the last three matches, Haaland has had zero "big chances".
He has every right to blame his team-mates for his lack of goals, then.
Indeed looking at his shot accuracy and Expected Goals (xG) total from the last three matches, Haaland hasn’t suddenly gone off the boil. Rather he isn’t taking the shots, or being given good opportunities, to begin with.
Haaland’s Expected Goals by Matchweek
| Matchweek | Shots | Shot accuracy | xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 100% | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 57% | 1.8 |
| 3 | 5 | 80% | 1.7 |
| 4 | 6 | 80% | 1.1 |
| 5 | 6 | 100% | 0.9 |
| 6 | 5 | 66.7% | 0.5 |
| 7 | 4 | 66.7% | 0.3 |
| 8 | 0 | N/A | 0 |
Absences hurting Haaland
There is no doubt that Man City have become less creative over the last three matches.
Injuries to Rodri and Kevin De Bruyne have quite obviously impacted the team’s creativity, as the stats show.
Man City have averaged 0.7 "big chances" created over the last three Premier League encounters, down from 3.6 in the first five matches, and their xG has almost halved in the process.
Man City average chances created
| Matchweek | xG | Chances created | Big chances |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 average | 2.3 | 16.4 | 3.6 |
| 6-8 average | 1.4 | 12.0 | 0.7 |
How De Bruyne’s absence impacts Haaland is easy enough to understand. The Belgian is the creative linchpin of the team and with Phil Foden restricted to just 193 minutes of Premier League football this season, Man City are short on creativity.
Foden has only managed 102 minutes of Man City’s last three fixtures – one start, one substitute appearance – while De Bruyne was absent entirely. It’s little wonder the chances aren’t coming Haaland’s way.
Impact of Rodri’s injury
Last season Rodri topped the Premier League charts for passes into the final third, with 378, completing an astonishing 56 per cent more of these passes than the next best player, Pascal Gross, 242.
His incisive forward passing splits teams open, disrupting the compact defensive shells that Man City regularly face.
Without his distribution – without his clipped balls into the wingers and his sharp ground passes through midfield lines – the opponent finds it easier to hold their shape, surrounding Haaland.
Crowding Haaland out
Cut off the supply line to Haaland and he rarely scores. In fact, only twice in his entire Premier League career has Haaland found the net in a match with zero "big chances" presented to him.
Haaland's matches with zero "big chances"
| 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | |
| Matches with zero big chances | 7 | 7 | 3 |
| Goals in matches with zero big chances | 1 | 1 | 0 |
That’s precisely what Wolves, Fulham, and Newcastle have done in the last three encounters, leading to zero "big chances" for Haaland.
In a typical example from last weekend, when City’s slow Rodri-less build-up allowed Wolves to keep their shape, note below how many defenders are swarming Haaland.
City scored three against Fulham, but one was from a corner and the other two from outside the box. Haaland, again, barely got a sniff as you can see here.
Drought likely to end soon
Man City’s creativity issues might not continue for much longer.
Foden is almost back to full fitness. De Bruyne is eyeing a return this weekend and Haaland will be licking his lips at the prospect of Southampton at home on Saturday.
The Saints have conceded the second-most goals in the division, with 18, conceded the second-highest xG of 17.3, and have leaked three goals in each of their last three matches.
More importantly, they will not be as defensive as any of Man City’s last three opponents; Russell Martin only knows one way to play, and there is no suggestion he will be any less proactive for the trip to the Etihad Stadium.
That’s reason enough to assume Haaland will be back in the goals soon, but there’s more.
Only twice before has Haaland gone three Man City matches without a goal. After the first, in January 2023, he scored four goals in his next two encounters. After the second time, he scored five goals in the next three matches.
Nobody keeps Haaland down for long. It won’t be long before normal service is resumed.
