The Scout delves into the data to help managers determine the best options for their forward lines in Fantasy Premier League.
Erling Haaland (£15.4m) looks well on his way to another Golden Boot, with 11 goals across Manchester City's opening nine matches of 2024/25 which has put him top of the forward standings on 75 points.
What's noticeable about the early stages of this season, though, is the success of a host of cut-price strikers in Fantasy. Nottingham Forest's Chris Wood and Brighton & Hove Albion's Danny Welbeck (£5.9m) both rank among the four top-scoring players in this position, producing 59 and 57 points respectively.
At a cost of £6.4m in Fantasy, this means Wood has returned 9.2 points per million spent, while Welbeck has returned 9.7 points per million spent - that is nearly TWICE the 4.9 value of Haaland, by contrast.
Indeed, as many as SIX of the 12 top-scoring forwards in Fantasy cost under £6.0m, with Fulham's Raul Jimenez (£5.7m) and Brentford's Yoane Wissa (£5.9m) among the best of the rest at this price point.
Jimenez has blanked just once in his six starts since securing a role in the Cottagers' first XI in Gameweek 4, producing four goals and an assist. Meanwhile, Wissa has four goals, two assists and only one blank in five starts.
In terms of starts alone, Jimenez and Wissa have averaged 6.3 points per match (ppm) and 7.6ppm respectively.
Forwards' stats compared 24/25
| Player | G + A | Points | Price | Pts/million |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland | 11 | 75 | £15.4m | 4.9 |
| Wood | 7 | 59 | £6.4m | 9.2 |
| Jackson | 9 | 57 | £7.9m | 7.2 |
| Welbeck | 7 | 57 | £5.9m | 9.7 |
| Watkins | 7 | 51 | £9.1m | 5.6 |
| Havertz | 5 | 44 | £8.2m | 5.4 |
| Jimenez | 5 | 41 | £5.7m | 7.2 |
| Cunha | 4 | 41 | £6.5m | 6.3 |
| Wissa | 6 | 39 | £5.9m | 6.6 |
| Delap | 5 | 38 | £5.7m | 6.7 |
| Vardy | 4 | 38 | £5.7m | 6.7 |
| Strand Larsen | 4 | 35 | £5.5m | 6.4 |
*Rotate your mobile device to see the full table
Who is most likely to score?
The underlying statistics showcase Haaland's peerless potential for goals. His 43 shots match the combined total of Aston Villa's Ollie Watkins (£9.1m) and Chelsea's Nicolas Jackson (£7.9m), who have had 21 and 22 shots respectively.
While the Norwegian's 39 shots in the box is significantly superior to any other forward, there's far less disparity when it comes to big chances - situations where the player is expected to score.
Although Haaland still leads the way for this statistic with a total of 14 big chances, Watkins is close behind with 12, while Jackson, Wood and Arsenal's Kai Havertz (£8.2m) have each had at least 10.
Havertz's numbers indicate there is plenty of room for improvement in terms of his output in Fantasy. The German's 28 shots and 24 shots in the box both place second only to Haaland, but he has been undone by a lowly 14.3 per cent goal conversion rate so far.
Wood and Wissa, on the other hand, may struggle to continue their lofty output, with their respective goal conversion rates of 36.8 per cent and 30.8 per cent likely to be unsustainable over the course of a full campaign.
The statistics also show how similar Welbeck and Jimenez's stats have been, with the duo dead-level on 20 shots in the box and seven big chances each. The former has proven more clinical by converting 24 per cent of his 25 shots, whereas Jimenez has scored 17.4 per cent of his 23 shots.
Forwards' goal threat 24/25
| Player | Shots | Shots in box | Big chances | Goal conversion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland | 43 | 39 | 14 | 25.6% |
| Watkins | 21 | 21 | 12 | 23.8% |
| Jackson | 22 | 21 | 11 | 27.3% |
| Havertz | 28 | 24 | 10 | 14.3% |
| Wood | 19 | 17 | 10 | 36.8% |
| Calvert-Lewin | 21 | 20 | 8 | 9.5% |
| Solanke | 15 | 14 | 8 | 13.3% |
| Welbeck | 25 | 20 | 7 | 24.0% |
| Jimenez | 23 | 20 | 7 | 17.4% |
| Archer | 14 | 13 | 7 | 14.3% |
| Wissa | 13 | 11 | 7 | 30.8% |
*Rotate your mobile device to see the full table
Who has been involved in the most big chances?
By combining each player's goal threat with their creativity paints a clearer picture emerges of their all-round potential in Fantasy.
Haaland has created one big chance as well as receiving 14 of his own, which means he has been involved in 15 big chances overall.
That narrowly gives him top spot ahead of Jackson and Watkins, who are both tied on 14 big-chance involvements thanks to their superior creativity.
Jimenez's numbers are all the more impressive bearing in mind he didn't make his first start until Gameweek 4. As well as having seven big chances, the Mexican has also created four such opportunities for his team-mates - that gives him a total of 11 big-chance involvements, level with Havertz and Wood.
Wolverhampton Wanderers' Matheus Cunha (£6.5m) has been the most creative forward in the first nine Gameweeks. His 15 key passes is at least eight more than any rival, while his five big chances created are also more than any other player in his position.
That gives Cunha a total of seven big-chance involvements, identical to his team-mate Jorgen Strand Larsen (£5.5m).
Forwards' creativity 24/25
| Player | Key passes | Big chances created | Total big-chance involvement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland | 5 | 1 | 15 |
| Jackson | 7 | 3 | 14 |
| Watkins | 6 | 2 | 14 |
| Jimenez | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| Havertz | 6 | 1 | 11 |
| Wood | 4 | 1 | 11 |
| Solanke | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| Antonio | 5 | 4 | 8 |
| Isak | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Cunha | 15 | 5 | 7 |
| Strand Larsen | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| Wissa | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| Archer | 0 | 0 | 7 |
*Rotate your mobile device to see the full table
Who has the best short-term fixtures?
It stands to reason that forwards are likely to get more goals when playing against favourable opponents, and using the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR) can help identify the top targets.
Over the next four Gameweeks, there are six clubs who each have THREE matches which score only two in the FDR - Brentford, Everton, Fulham, Manchester United, Newcastle United and Wolves.
By combining the schedules with the statistics, this suggests Wissa, Jimenez, Cunha and Strand Larsen could prove the most productive in this period.
Meanwhile, Wood owners will certainly be happy to hold for home encounters with Man Utd and Newcastle in the next two Gameweeks before Nott'm Forest's schedule takes a significant turn for the worse.
Man City are the only side who have ZERO matches which score two in the FDR over the next four Gameweeks, although it's fair to say that Haaland is far more fixture-proof than most.
Sides' schedules, next four Gameweeks
| FDR matches rated 2 | Club |
|---|---|
| 3 | Brentford, Everton, Fulham, Man Utd, Newcastle, Wolves |
| 2 | Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Ipswich, Liverpool, Nott'm Forest, Southampton, Spurs, West Ham |
| 1 | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Chelsea, Leicester |
| 0 | Man City |
So, who are the best forwards to own?
Haaland is in a league of his own when it comes to goal threat, and if money is no object, then he is quite clearly the best forward in Fantasy.
However, you have to also factor in the premium midfielders here. Both Mohamed Salah (£12.7m) and Cole Palmer (£11.0m) are outperforming Haaland at cheaper prices, an indication that the Norwegian is not quite as essential as his 73 per cent ownership suggests.
Elsewhere up front, Watkins and Havertz look the best long-term alternatives to Haaland and there would be no surprise if they ran the Norwegian closest for points by the end of the season.
Yet there’s no denying the huge value on offer up front right now. Crucially, whereas six of the top 12 forwards cost under £6.0m, only TWO of the 12 top-scoring midfielders are priced under £6.0m.
That suggests investing in the budget forward bracket can help you stock up on big-hitting midfielders.
Short-term, Jimenez and Wissa have the form and fixtures to reward investment while Wood backers should certainly hold him for another two Gameweeks.
Both Brighton and Wolves have longer runs of kind opponents, though, which raises the appeal in bringing in Welbeck alongside one of Cunha or Strand Larsen.