Why Fernandes can score BIG over next three Gameweeks in FPL

The Scout assesses the potential of Bruno Fernandes (£8.2m) as a short-term option in managers’ midfields in Fantasy Premier League.

Manchester United’s playmaker has immediately stepped up his output since Ruud van Nistelrooy was appointed as interim head coach.

Fernandes scored twice in the Dutchman’s first match in charge last week, a 5-2 EFL Cup win over Leicester City. He then profited from his penalty duties to score the home side's goal in a 1-1 draw with Chelsea last weekend, collecting his season-high haul of 10 points.

Man Utd’s upcoming schedule certainly lifts the appeal of investing in Fernandes ahead of the arrival of Ruben Amorim as their new head coach.

According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), each of their next three matches scores just two.

Man Utd's next three matches

*1 = easiest possible fixture, 5 = hardest possible fixture

That run, coincidentally, starts with a reprisal of their home meeting with Leicester, in what will be Van Nistelrooy’s last match in charge.

In Gameweek 11, Man Utd then face another promoted side, Ipswich Town, in their first match under Amorim. 

And there will also be a sense of occasion for Amorim's first Premier League home match against Everton, before the schedule quickly turns against them, with visits to Arsenal and Manchester City over the subsequent three Gameweeks. 

Is Fernandes the best Man Utd pick in Fantasy?

There's no denying that Fernandes has made an underwhelming start to 2024/25 Fantasy, with just one goal and two assists to his name.

On the upside, two of those attacking returns have arrived over his last two home matches. In addition to his penalty against Chelsea, he supplied an assist against Brentford in Gameweek 8.

By analysing the underlying statistics over the last four Gameweeks, managers can get a clearer picture of a player's potential for goals and assists in Fantasy.

Fernandes' all-round style of play is immediately highlighted by his involvement in big chances - situations where the player is expected to score.

He's had three of his own - including his penalty against Chelsea - and created a further five such opportunities, which means he has been involved in a total of eight big chances across Gameweeks 7-10.

Not only is that top for Man Utd, it ranks first among ALL players in Fantasy.

The Portuguese's eight key passes is also a team-leading total, underlining his superior prospects for assists.

Meanwhile, Fernandes' 15 shots and seven shots in the box are bettered only by Alejandro Garnacho (£6.3m), who had 18 and 13 respectively.

Fernandes' goal threat GW7-10

How Fernandes' form compares with top-scoring midfielders

A comparison of Fernandes with the four top-scoring midfielders in Fantasy - Mohamed Salah (£12.8m), Cole Palmer (£11.0m), Bryan Mbeumo (£7.8m) and Bukayo Saka (£10.1m) - strengthens his appeal as a short-term investment.

Over the last four Gameweeks, Fernandes' eight big-chance involvements are three more than both Salah and Saka, and TWICE the total of Palmer's four.

The Portuguese has also had 15 shots, more than all of his rivals, as shown in the table below.

Midfielders' goal threat compared GW7-10

Rotate your mobile device to see full table

What does the Expected Goals data tell us?

The Expected Goals (xG) data brings an extra element to managers’ decision-making in Fantasy.

The xG metric measures, on a scale between zero and one, the probability of a shot resulting in a goal, where zero represents a chance that is impossible to score and one represents a chance that a player would be expected to score every single time.

In a similar vein, Expected Assists (xA) measures the likelihood that a completed pass will become an assist for a goal.

A player’s overall attacking potential is then measured by combining both their xG and xA to create their Expected Goal Involvement (xGI) score.

The numbers indicate that Fernandes has had the goal threat of Mbeumo and the creative potential of Salah over the first 10 Gameweeks.

In terms of goal threat, Fernandes’ xG score of 3.75 is near-identical to the 3.78 of Mbeumo. But whereas the Brentford star has scored eight goals, Fernandes has just one. 

When it comes to assist potential, the Man Utd star has posted an xA of 1.79 to the 1.77 of Salah. Yet Fernandes’ two assists are less than HALF his rival’s five. 

Fernandes' output of just one goal and two assists from an xGI of 5.54 means that he has underperformed his xGI by 2.54, giving him an "xGI delta" score of -2.54, the SECOND-WORST of any player this season.

Midfielders' expected data compared GW1-10

Ultimately, while these xG figures serve to highlight just how frustrating a pick Fernandes can be, they also help to show that the Portuguese is comparing very favourably with the top-scoring midfielders when it comes to the potential for attacking returns.