Analysis: What is behind Man City's dip in form?

Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 11.

Team analysis: Manchester City

One Premier League defeat hardly constitutes a crisis at Man City, but three successive losses in all competitions does point towards a downturn in form.

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Ahead of a tricky test at Fabian Hurzeler’s Brighton & Hove Albion on Saturday, it feels like an opportune moment to step back and assess the issues facing the champions right now.

Fewer sprints

One of the most impressive aspects of Man City’s success in recent years has been their incessant thirst for more silverware.

Last weekend’s 2-1 loss at AFC Bournemouth was worrying as City’s players looked more sluggish than usual.

Andoni Iraola’s pumped-up Bournemouth team made 58 more sprints than City, while simultaneously covering an extra 3.2km in distance ran.

This level of disparity is highly unusual when Man City are involved in top-flight matches.

It is the sixth time in 10 matches that City have made fewer sprints than their opponents and also the fifth occasion that they have run a shorter distance than their opposition this season.

Bournemouth v Man City comparison

Compared to the levels of City's physical output in 2023/24, the decline from Pep Guardiola’s side is shown clearly in the table below.

Man City's output last two seasons

While it is never easy to dominate the athletic rankings when you have as much possession as a team such as Man City, it is interesting to note that this season, they rank 20th for sprints and ninth for distance covered.

Upcoming opponents Brighton are a super-fit side, always willing to run extra hard.

Brighton rank third and fifth for distance covered and sprints respectively, so City can expect another tough physical examination.

On the back of a tiring 4-1 loss to Sporting in Lisbon in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday, City will not have looked forward to seeing Brighton as their next opponents.

City are running less, which means they are not working as hard to support team-mates on the ball, or to track back and provide defensive cover.

As the data in the table below indicates, they are easier to play against than last season, making fewer off-the-ball runs and pressures per match.

Man City's decreasing intensity

Slow out the blocks

Unusually, Man City have conceded the opening goal in half of their matches so far this season.

They have been slow out of the blocks, with a division-high eight out of 11 of their concessions, or 73 per cent, coming in the first half of matches.

In the opening 30 minutes they have been far looser defensively than we have grown accustomed.

In each of the previous two campaigns City conceded only eight times in that first half-hour, but already, with 28 matches left to play, they have shipped seven goals across that period.

Man City goals scored/conceded in opening 30min

*after 10 matches

Issues out wide

The last three Premier League goals City have conceded all stemmed from deliveries into the penalty area from wide areas.

Bournemouth left-back Milos Kerkez provided two tremendous assists at the Vitality Stadium, while in the 2-1 comeback win at Molineux, it was Wolverhampton Wanderers' right-back Nelson Semedo who crossed for Jorgen Strand Larsen to open the scoring.

To avoid a repeat, City must track Brighton’s full-backs and wingers far more diligently.

Cracks have appeared when opponents have released the spare man out wide and forced Guardiola’s defence to turn and sprint back towards their own goal.

City are conceding more goals and better-quality chances compared with 2023/24.

As you can see in the table below, City's Expected Goals Against (xGA - or how many goals a team are likely to concede based on the quality of chances they allow the other team to have on their goal), is significantly higher than last season.

The issues can be turned around quickly, but this negative trend is making it harder for them to win matches with their usual ease.

Expected Goals Against per 90 last two seasons

Too reliant on Haaland?

When you have a goal machine like Erling Haaland leading the line it provides the rest of the team with added confidence.

One issue facing Man City this season though, has been the spread of goals.

Phil Foden and Kevin De Bruyne have struggled with injuries and players who have previously scored plenty of goals are struggling to do so.

Indeed, Foden, Bernardo Silva, Ilkay Gundogan, Jack Grealish, Savinho and Matheus Nunes are all yet to register a Premier League goal.

This despite playing for a combined 2,747 minutes!

Haaland's goal share last three seasons

The other point to note is that City are not manufacturing as many big chances as they did last season, dipping from 3.26 to 2.7 per match.

That remains a healthy amount, but their finishing has also been less clinical.

In 2022/23 City's conversion rate of 15.7 per cent was a competition-high, while last season their 13.8 per cent rate ranked fourth.

Their 10.7 per cent success rate in 2024/25 has the defending champions ranked 10th.

How Man City rank last two seasons

Any match with Man City is sure to be a difficult challenge and Brighton will start as underdogs.

However, it feels undeniable that this could be a good time to face Guardiola's side.

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