Analysis: How Man City keep evolving under Guardiola

Following confirmation that Pep Guardiola has signed a new contract, Adrian Clarke explains how the Spaniard has shaped Manchester City and influenced the Premier League over the past eight years.

Pep Guardiola’s two-year contract extension will keep the Man City manager at the Etihad Stadium until 2027, completing a decade of truly outstanding service.

Claiming six Premier League titles across the last seven years, as well as a host of other trophies, 53-year-old Guardiola has done a phenomenal job.

Let’s reflect on the Spaniard's City journey to this point.

How did Pep initially reshape the team?

Guardiola inherited a side that had been accustomed to using either a straight 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1 system under his predecessor Manuel Pellegrini.

He used a 4-2-3-1 formation in his first match, a 2-1 home win over Sunderland on 13 August 2016, before quickly switching to a regular 4-3-3.

Pep’s first starting XI v Sunderland

His biggest task though, was to effectively re-program the way each of his players understood their positioning on the pitch.

We suddenly saw both full-backs invert into central midfield, with the deepest lying midfield player dropping between the centre-backs.

Twin No 8s were asked to occupy wider half-spaces, players were rotated, and his goalkeeper became an integral part of their build-up play.

These changes were all considered radical at the time, but after a sticky first season of adaptation which saw City finish third on 78 points, 15 behind champions Chelsea, they have not looked back.

A year later, with Guardiola’s players fully tuned in to his unique demands, City won the title with 100 points, a full 19 clear of Manchester United in second place.

A domestic Treble followed in 2018/19, and his trophy count currently stands at 12 major domestic prizes, plus a UEFA Champions League.

How have his tactics evolved?

Under the Spaniard’s care Man City have always been a high possession side that play out from the back, and counter-press brilliantly.

Those are the non-negotiables.

Along the way though, Guardiola has made continuous refinements.

In the pandemic-hit 2019/20 campaign the shape of his side evolved into more of a 4-2-2-2 in possession.

Newcomer Rodri came into a box midfield with Fernandinho dropping in as centre-back, while up front Raheem Sterling slid across from the wing to join Gabriel Jesus or Sergio Aguero as one of two main strikers.

City adopted a largely striker-less formation over the next two seasons, deploying a "false nine".

In possession they morphed into a 2-3-3-2 with full-backs inverted and both wingers occupying split striker positions.

Spreading the goals around, this fluid starting XI was patient, but also unpredictable.

Man City’s average positions/most used XIs

Since Erling Haaland’s arrival in 2022, City's direction has changed, with their attacking threat in the air, and in behind, becoming more prominent.

Guardiola has enjoyed using centre-backs as full-backs, even pushing John Stones into central midfield alongside Rodri to great effect in a new 3-2-4-1 system during much of 2022/23.

Last season he also employed Julian Alvarez as a support striker just behind Haaland, in a more consistent use of 4-2-3-1.

With Haaland up top and opponents understandably dropping a little deeper to cope with his pace, Guardiola’s latest variance is the use of line-breaking wingers, who are more maverick in style.

Jeremy Doku and Savinho fit that bill, providing speed and width. Their presence also tends to stretch play by drawing defenders away from the central areas Haaland wants to occupy.

What formations has he used most?

Guardiola has always been willing to tweak and tinker, using 14 different systems over the last eight-and-a-half years.

During the past two seasons he has been increasingly drawn towards a three-man defence, but across his time in charge, Guardiola has used a back only 43 times in 315 Premier League matches, representing a 13.7 per cent share.

In possession the shape of his team often resembles a 3-2-5, but this usually comes from the platform of a back four.

Guardiola's most used formations

Who have been Pep’s main men?

Players such as Vincent Kompany, David Silva, Fernandinho, Kevin De Bruyne and Aguero were all so pivotal at the outset of Guardiola’s reign, but over the years plenty of others have also played their part in City’s success.

Goalkeeper Ederson is his most-used player, and the impact the Brazlian’s quality distribution made to developing their style of play was enormous.

Kyle Walker is another stalwart that has offered his manager great options with his pace and versatility.

Most PL appearances under Guardiola

De Bruyne, Aguero and Haaland are the standout names when it comes to direct goal involvements. It is actually Sterling, however, who has scored the most Premier League goals under Guardiola, with 85 goals, three ahead of Aguero and 10 clear of twice Golden Boot winner Haaland.

Highest PL scorers under Guardiola

Sterling also ranks third when it comes to players who have produced the most assists under Guardiola, although his total of 40 is some way behind De Bruyne, who leads the way with 103 assists.

Most assists under Guardiola

Is this Pep’s best XI?

How does he compare to the best of the rest?

Former assistant Mikel Arteta might be considered his biggest rival at present, but there have been several managerial legends who have gone toe-to-toe with Guardiola since 2016.

That list includes Arsene Wenger, Jose Mourinho and Thomas Tuchel, but his chief adversaries have been Liverpool’s Jurgen Klopp and Antonio Conte, during spells with Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur.

Over the course of his stay so far, no other manager can come close to matching Guardiola’s amazing 73.7 per cent win ratio though.

How Guardiola's PL managerial record compares

Peaking at the right time

One of the secrets to Guardiola’s success has been the way his team consistently peak towards the end of each campaign.

Having a squad packed with as much depth as Man City helps of course, but credit should also go to him for his astute use of rotation.

Key individuals are rarely over-played and tend to hit top form during the run-in, and as shown below, City's record of strong finishes under Guardiola speaks for itself.

Strong finishes to PL seasons under Guardiola

How Guardiola has changed English football

Great managers influence others and there is no doubt that Guardiola has followed in the footsteps of Sir Alex Ferguson and Wenger in the way he has impacted English football on a wider level.

Throughout the Premier League and EFL his influence can be seen and felt.

In 2016/17 it was unusual to see short goal-kicks taken, or for players to take risks by passing inside their own box, but at all levels of the game this has now become the norm.

The same can be said for inverting full-backs to create central overloads and stability against turnovers.

Right across all four divisions managers mimic that tactic, first seen at the Etihad Stadium.

Positional rotation all over the pitch is also far more widespread thanks to Guardiola’s fluid style.

Increase in possession-based style

The City manager can also take at least partial credit for the way teams have adopted his patient style of possession football across the past eight seasons.

The rise in quality, accurate passing has been steady year on year.

So much so that this season’s least accurate passers, Everton (77 per cent) are just a fraction below the division average from 2015/16, the season before Guardiola arrived in England.

PL teams' passing accuracy before and after Guardiola

Guardiola’s influence on the style of Premier League football has been as substantial as his individual success.