Analysis: Can Guardiola and Amorim find a winning formula?

Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 16.

Team analysis: Manchester City and Manchester United

All eyes will be on the Etihad Stadium this Sunday as Pep Guardiola and Ruben Amorim seek major improvements from their struggling sides.

In their Treble-winning campaign Man City let in 43 goals across the entire campaign, but they arrive at this derby having conceded 23 in their past 10 matches in all competitions.

Their seven losses is also Man City's worst run of form for 18 years.

Meanwhile Man Utd sit 13th in the table - their lowest spot after 15 rounds of matches since 1986/87.

Here are five areas of interest that whet the appetite ahead of Sunday afternoon’s colossal encounter.

When was the last time City and United met in such bad shape?

Never have these two clubs arrived at a Manchester derby in worse combined Premier League form.

City have picked up only seven points from as many matches, while United have amassed eight points across the same period.

In the Premier League era at least one of these two clubs has come into the derby with at least nine points from their previous seven contests.

Back in 2004 their aggregate points tally was lower, but this was mainly down to City’s poor form at the time.

Man City and Man Utd's lowest point totals

*in a seven-match period

With two outstanding managers at the helm, these respective bad patches are unlikely to continue for much longer, but big changes do lie ahead at both clubs.

Amorim is experimenting ahead of a major overhaul of his squad this summer, looking to see which players suit his tactical approach.

For Guardiola it is apparent he must reduce the average age of his squad ahead of the 2025/26 campaign.

United’s set-piece struggles

Man City are boosted by the return of Kevin De Bruyne, and they will fancy their chances of scoring from a corner.

The Belgian is easily their most reliable set-piece taker, creating 1.44 chances per 90 minutes from his accurate deliveries alone.

That ranks him second in the division behind Fulham’s Andreas Pereira.

Chances created from set-pieces 24/25

His quality over dead-ball situations may unnerve a Man Utd side that have conceded three times from corners in the last two matches.

Amorim’s zonal marking set-up was brutally exposed by Arsenal, who undid them twice from near identical routines.

The Gunners moved United’s only two man-markers to a crowded far post, leaving all six of their six-yard-box defenders standing on their own, with two more protecting an empty penalty spot.

Jurrien Timber’s run through a packed six-yard box saw him convert a near-post cross.

Timber's goal v Man Utd

United’s defenders were also caught ball watching for Arsenal’s second.

Rasmus Hojlund did engage in physical contact with eventual scorer William Saliba, but everybody else was passive.

A far-post delivery found Thomas Partey, who nodded it square for Saliba to prod home.

Saliba's goal v Man Utd

Man Utd’s clutch of zonal markers also stood still, watching on as observers, when Nottingham Forest’s Nikola Milenkovic scored at Old Trafford.

On this occasion he evaded man-marker Lisandro Martinez to head home from a very different type of routine.

All three occasions were highlighted by the six players stationed closest to goalkeeper Andre Onana not doing enough to prevent a goal from being scored.

Milenkovic's header v Man Utd

Will Amorim stick with this shaky marking set-up, or come up with something new for their short trip across the city?

Let’s see, but his players’ set-piece troubles are a longstanding problem. In 2024 alone they have conceded 15 goals from corners.

This is just three fewer than they let in across 2021 (eight), 2022 (four) and 2023 (six) combined.

This season, 39 per cent of the goals they've conceded (7/18) have come from corners.

Most goals conceded from corners in 2024

Signs of promise at the other end

Man Utd have displayed better invention from attacking set-pieces since Amorim took over.

Several clever routines have emerged that nearly reaped rewards.

This wide free-kick (below) saw three United players actively pinning Forest defenders in, leaving a corridor of space for Bruno Fernandes to find an unmarked Amad.

Late on in the same game they attempted something similar, driving a far-post corner to Martinez, who deliberately pulled away to the far post to try and convert on the volley.

In their defeat at Arsenal, Man Utd came up with another imaginative routine that perhaps deserved better.

Antony ran over the ball as a decoy but was then played in down the side of Arsenal’s wall by a clever reverse pass from Fernandes.

The Brazilian’s snapshot tested goalkeeper David Raya from the angle.

When defending wide free-kicks and corners, Man City must ensure nobody loses focus, as United will try unusual training ground routines.

Could we see a change of system for Man City?

Guardiola may look at changing his formation having just tasted victory once in their last last 10 matches across all competitions.

With only three senior defenders likely to be available on Sunday in Kyle Walker, Ruben Dias and Josko Gvardiol, his hand could even be forced, and it feels like this could be the right moment for the champions to return to a 3-2-4-1.

It was a system that worked superbly for them in 2022/23, and since the start of last season they have also largely excelled in that set-up.

Man City's results with a back three since 23/24

Their 1-0 loss to Aston Villa last December is the only defeat they have suffered when playing with a back three during that period.

That night Guardiola started with the three defenders who should feature against United on Sunday, but a trio of other defensive players - Manuel Akanji, John Stones and Rico Lewis - occupied positions in midfield.

If he switches to a 3-2-4-1 this weekend it will be considerably more attacking.

Providing Phil Foden recovers from illness, he could form an exciting partnership with De Bruyne behind Erling Haaland.

Foden has six goals in his last four Premier League appearances against United, level with Haaland who already has the most direct goal involvements, with nine, of any City player against the Red Devils in the competition.

Wingers Jeremy Doku and Savinho will come under consideration, but in such an offensive line-up Guardiola is more likely to use Matheus Nunes and Bernardo Silva as wing-backs.

Ilkay Gundogan and Kovacic as a double-pivot in midfield, would in theory match up with Amorim’s twin No 10s.

Here is a possible starting XI that would in effect match Man Utd’s 3-4-2-1 formation.

Guardiola could stick with his preferred back four, but there are various reasons why it may make sense to start in a 3-2-4-1.

Can Amorim repeat his success against Pep?

It is barely six weeks since Amorim inspired a 4-1 success for Sporting against a beleaguered Man City side in Lisbon.

In Guardiola’s 175th UEFA Champions League match as a manager it was only the third time he had seen his side concede four times.

Sporting may have been out shot 9-20 by City on the night, but an efficient display of rapid counter-attacking football undid Guardiola's side.

Amorim’s team had only 27.3 per cent of possession as they set-up in a 5-4-1 out of possession.

Sporting v Man City stats

The key to their success was the way they sprung into life from turnovers that were created by aggressive pressing.

Sporting caused them major problems with their speed and running power as they preyed on City's susceptibility to fast breaks.

Has Amorim got the players at Man Utd to repeat this tactic?

Based on what he has seen so far the jury is out, but do not be surprised if his instructions are very similar at the weekend.

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