Analysis: Where Spurs v Liverpool will be won and lost

Adrian Clarke looks at significant tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 17.

Team analysis: Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool

Unbeaten in 20 matches in all competitions, Liverpool’s next examination will see their title credentials tested by an unpredictable, but dangerous Spurs side.

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Spurs have scored 11 times across matches against Chelsea, Manchester City and Aston Villa this season, and netted four times in their midweek EFL Cup success at home to Manchester United.

Yet defensive issues for Ange Postecoglou’s side mean they still find themselves languishing in 10th place.

Free-scoring Liverpool have also been a touch porous of late, leaking five goals in back-to-back Premier League draws against Newcastle United and Fulham.

So, a shootout of sorts potentially awaits…

Could be fireworks early on

Spurs like to produce explosive starts, scoring nine goals in the first 15 minutes of Premier League matches this season, and conceding just once.

The hosts, who have netted six times inside the first quarter-hour across their last three matches, will tear out of the blocks against Liverpool.

Arne Slot’s men must be ready for that onslaught, so do not be surprised if Liverpool take a more pragmatic approach than usual early on, in a bid to frustrate and quieten the home supporters.

Liverpool are strong starters themselves, scoring nine and conceding only three goals in the first 30 minutes of league matches.

But across that period, Spurs are by some distance the most productive top-flight team, boasting a +9 goal difference.

PL opening 30 mins stats 24/25

Key duel: Salah v Gray

In the continued absence of key defenders Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero, it looks as if 18-year-old Archie Gray will continue to deputise at the heart of Spurs' defence.

The teenager made his name with Leeds United as a composed central midfielder who can fill in at right-back, so it is unusual seeing him operate as a left-sided centre back.

Gray was impressive, though, in victories against Southampton and Man Utd this week.

Losing possession only nine times across the last 180 minutes - less than any Spurs player - his cool-headed distribution and effortless defending caught the eye.

When Postecoglou’s side play out from the back, Gray becomes a senior figure, completing 91 accurate passes at St Mary’s Stadium last weekend, with a 96.1 per cent accuracy rate, as indicated in the chalkboard below.

With Fraser Forster looking uneasy when he has the ball at his feet, the young defender's assurance on the ball is going to be vital when dealing with Liverpool’s press.

A key part of Gray's brief will also be to handle the threat of Mohamed Salah whenever he drifts inside left-back Djed Spence or Destiny Udogie.

His positioning must be spot on, and how well he anticipates Salah's canny movement will determine how he fares.

The task in hand is incredibly tough.

Salah has only failed to score or assist in two Premier League appearances so far in 2024/25, against Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace.

In both those matches, Liverpool’s opponents set up in a relatively low block, sacrificing possession to deny Salah space behind them.

This is unlikely to be the approach taken by Spurs, so Gray will probably find himself a bit more isolated and stretched than those who successfully shut him out.

If he can stop Salah, Liverpool’s prospects of winning this match will suffer greatly.

The 32-year-old has been directly involved in 22 of Liverpool’s 31 Premier League goals this season.

No one else in the division comes close to that 71 per cent share.

Standing on 13 goals and nine assists, Salah could also become the first player in Premier League history to reach double figures for both before Christmas.

Most PL goals and assists 24/25

Will Maddison be trusted by Postecoglou?

It has been a strange couple of months for attacking midfielder James Maddison.

The 28-year-old was brilliant when scoring a brace in their 4-0 win at Man City, and last weekend he was equally superb, netting twice in a 5-0 victory at Southampton.

Maddison's first goal v Southampton

Yet the England international has also spent plenty of time the substitutes bench, featuring for just 154 Premier League minutes on home turf since October’s international break.

With Dejan Kulusevski and Son Heung-min regular fixtures in the starting XI, it feels like Postecoglou is torn between using Maddison or Brennan Johnson.

The Spurs head coach made a big call at the Etihad Stadium when leaving out an in-form Johnson to push Kulusevski onto the right wing; stationing Maddison on the left of a midfield three.

That decision was vindicated, with both players excelling, but will he show as much faith in his talented No 10 against Liverpool?

Statistically, Maddison is performing well enough to earn that trust.

He is among the most productive attackers in the Premier League this season, serving up seven goals and four assists, at a rate of 0.96 direct goal involvements per 90 minutes.

Team-mate Son is also in the division’s top five, currently led by Salah.

Most goals and assists per 90 mins 24/25*

*minimum 500 minutes played

The heat map below shows how Postecoglou has primarily used Maddison on the left of a three this season, rather than as a central attacking midfield playmaker.

If selected on Sunday, Maddison will look to create 2v1s with Son, doubling up on Trent Alexander-Arnold down that side.

He overlapped in this exact manner against Man Utd on Thursday night, before delivering a cross that was finished by Kulusevski.

Maddison's assist for Kulusevski v Man Utd

If Maddison starts on the left of midfield, Alexander-Arnold will have a lot of defending to do down that side of the pitch.

Sweden international Kulusevski loves to make long diagonal runs across the field to pop up on that side, with Spurs tending to feed most off their distribution down that flank.

In the matches against Southampton and Man Utd they were extremely left-side heavy in their approach, as reflected below.

Spurs' attacking areas v Southampton

Spurs' attacking areas v Man Utd

Expect goals

Liverpool have scored multiple goals in 13 of 15 league matches so far this season, and boosted by the return of Diogo Jota - their second-biggest goal threat behind Salah - they will fancy their prospects of netting at least twice once again.

The Portuguese front man bailed Liverpool out last weekend with a terrific solo equaliser in the 2-2 draw with Fulham.

And his numbers are strong for the campaign so far.

Diogo Jota's stats 24/25*

*minimum 500 minutes played

Keeping only one clean sheet in their last 23 home Premier League matches, Spurs must be positive to win this contest.

Having netted seven times against Chelsea and Man Utd in their previous two home encounters, outscoring the leaders is something they will believe is possible.

A thrilling match-up lies in store.

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