Analysis: Can Man City avoid a repeat of last season's loss at Villa?

Adrian Clarke looks at significant tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 17.

Team analysis: Aston Villa v Manchester City

Last December, Aston Villa set themselves on course for an unexpected top-four finish by producing an inspired home victory against Manchester City.

Pep Guardiola’s side return to Villa Park this weekend, and they arrive low on confidence having been defeated in eight of their last 11 matches in all competitions.

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That is as many as they had lost in their previous 106 games.

Can Unai Emery heap further misery on the champions by masterminding a repeat success?

Let’s take a closer look at some areas that may define this critical encounter, including a key duel between Ezri Konsa and Jeremy Doku.

Fixing their defensive issues

Since the start of November, Villa and Man City have both conceded 14 goals in seven matches.

In fact, they have conceded more than one goal in 11 (City six, Villa five) of those combined 14 matches.

What are the main issues they need to address?

Villa must certainly learn lessons from giving the ball away cheaply inside their own half; a problem which has plagued them across the last six weeks.

A loose pass from Pau Torres was punished by Tottenham Hotspur at the start of a run in which they have conceded goals from turnovers in three of their last four matches.

Brentford’s strike in their 3-1 defeat at Villa Park stemmed from Villa losing the ball inside their own half. For goals they conceded at Chelsea and Nottingham Forest, Emery's side lost duels in bad areas.

Last time out, in Villa's 2-1 loss at the City Ground, a second loose pass in quick succession put Matty Cash in a difficult situation that led to him being robbed by Elliot Anderson.

From the turnover, Anthony Elanga scored the winner.

Elanga's winner v Villa

Against Chelsea earlier this month, Jaden Philogene was also punished for a loose touch inside Villa’s defensive third, with Marc Cucurella stealing the ball, before Nicolas Jackson scored.

Jackson's goal v Villa

It is imperative that Villa take better care in possession against the champions, who remain a very dangerous side from turnovers.

Man City have also defended poorly in recent weeks, making a series of unusual errors.

High lines has been problematic for them, with goals conceded against Manchester United, Crystal Palace, Liverpool, Spurs and AFC Bournemouth all involving that type of issue.

Amad’s run in front of Matheus Nunes (below) was not tracked at all against Man Utd.

Amad's winner v Man City

Villa have plenty of pace in their side, so look out for the hosts trying to make runs beyond the last Man City defender.

Poor tracking has been a consistent problem of late, and it is something Guardiola's men must urgently address.

Key duel: Konsa v Doku

Man City’s Doku is the Premier League’s most mesmeric dribbler.

In the Manchester derby he attempted 11 dribbles and although he only completed four, that ball-carrying threat makes the Belgian a nightmare for full-backs to handle.

Doku always has potential to create a moment of magic, even during matches where the champions are struggling to find their rhythm.

Most dribbles attempted and completed per 90 mins 24/25

The 22-year-old’s next challenge is to make better use of those runs with the ball at his feet.

Three goals have stemmed from his ball carries in 2024/25, but his record of seven shots and five key passes from those situations is modest given the quantity he produces.

If he starts on the left, as he did last Sunday, Doku will come up against Konsa, who is an outstanding one-on-one defender.

Konsa was only dribbled past four times in the entirety of last season (ranked second behind Virgil van Dijk from defenders who made at least 30 starts) and in 2023/24 he was third-best from that metric, dribbled past on just eight occasions.

This season the 27-year-old is once again proving to be excellent in 1v1s, with just two opponents beating him so far.

His duel with Doku will be eye-catching.

Defenders dribbled past by opponents 24/25

*Min 14 Premier League starts

Could Villa hurt City by taking the aerial route?

Maxence Lacroix’s towering header for Palace, outjumping Kyle Walker from a corner at Selhurst Park, was the third headed goal City have conceded this season.

Lacroix's goal v Man City

That is not a hugely worrying figure, but Guardiola’s side – who have been looser than usual with their marking from crosses – will need to be wary of the threat Villa carry in that department.

Jhon Duran’s superb reaction effort, last time out at Forest, means Emery’s men have now found the back of the net with seven goals from headers.

That is the joint-highest tally in the division.

Most headed goals 24/25

Two forwards, Ollie Watkins (3) and Duran (2), have scored the bulk of Villa's headed goals, with the former registering the second-most headed shots on target (9) in the Premier League this season behind Erling Haaland.

The Man City striker has attempted to score with his head 20 times (nine more than anyone else in the division) but has so far scored from just one of those efforts.

Do not be surprised if one of the strikers on the pitch this Saturday scores in this manner.

Can Foden end his goalless run?

The EA SPORTS Player of the Season for 2023/24, Phil Foden, has not been anywhere near his best so far in 2024/25, failing to score in 719 minutes of Premier League action.

In their defeat to rivals Man Utd, he did go close to netting his first league goal of the campaign on several occasions, registering four shots.

City’s brilliant attacking midfielder has now had more shots without scoring than any other player in the Premier League this season, with 24.

Two other Man City players, Savinho and Ilkay Gundogan, with 20 and 15 respectively, also feature in the top 10 for having the most attempts without scoring.

Accuracy has been a major issue for Foden, who has missed the target with all but three of his efforts.

What can we learn from last season?

Emery’s tactics congested space quite brilliantly in last season’s well-deserved 1-0 success at home to Man City, his one and only win against Guardiola.

The Villa boss deployed a narrow 4-2-3-1 shape and his approach crowded the eventual champions in midfield. It was a ploy which limited City to just two shots on goal, both inside the first 11 minutes.

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Villa also won possession in the final third 13 times as they pressed high when it was on to do so. It was the highest such tally by an opposition team against Man City in a Premier League game during Guardiola’s time in charge.

Boubacar Kamara and John McGinn were particularly excellent in that victory for Villa, regaining possession on numerous occasions inside the City half.

Emery will surely look to repeat his tactics, and hope to be as successful second time around.

How well Man City handle Villa’s combative style is likely to determine the outcome.