The Scout, along with the panel of Fantasy Premier League experts, discuss whether managers should sell Alexander Isak (£9.5m) for Ollie Watkins (£8.9m) ahead of Aston Villa’s Double Gameweek 25 (DGW25).
While both forwards are set to suffer a Blank Gameweek 29 (BGW29), Newcastle United's Isak has a tough run of opponents beforehand, facing Manchester City, Nottingham Forest and Liverpool over the next three Gameweeks. Indeed, that encounter with Forest is Newcastle's only home match across the upcoming five Gameweeks.
Watkins, by contrast, has THREE home matches over the next two Gameweeks alone. Villa entertain Ipswich Town and Liverpool in DGW25 before hosting Chelsea.
Isak and Watkins' next five Gameweeks
| GW | Isak | FDR* | Watkins | FDR* |
| 25 | Man City (A) | 4 | Ipswich (H), Liverpool (H) | 2,5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Nottingham Forest (H) | 3 | Chelsea (H) | 4 |
| 27 | Liverpool (A) | 5 | Crystal Palace (A) | 3 |
| 28 | West Ham (A) | 2 | Brentford (A) | 3 |
| 29 | BLANK | N/A | BLANK | N/A |
*1 = easiest possible fixture, 5 = hardest possible fixture
Notably, three of Watkins' four double-figure hauls this season were recorded in home matches - the exception being an 11-pointer at Ipswich, who he plays this weekend in the first match of Villa's DGW25.
A look at the underlying statistics certainly shows why Watkins has been far more reliable when playing at Villa Park. His 42 shots in the box in home matches is THREE TIMES his total of 14 in away matches.
In home matches, Watkins has had 17 big chances, or situations where the player is expected to score. He has also created three such opportunities for his team-mates in those encounters, which means he has been involved in 20 big chances in those contests.
On the road, however, he has been involved in only 12 big chances.
Watkins' home v away statistics, 24/25
| Home | Away | |
| Shots in box | 42 | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances | 17 | 11 |
| Big chances created | 3 | 1 |
| Big-chance involvement | 20 | 12 |
That suggests if Watkins is passed fit ahead of Friday's 18:30 GMT deadline, he has the home form to outscore Isak in the short term, at least.
What do the FPL experts say?
Oscar (@FPLFocal)
If Watkins is confirmed fit and available then as crazy as it sounds, there is an opportunity to bring him in for Isak, given he has a Double Gameweek and better fixtures over the next four Gameweeks overall.
Ultimately it depends on how it affects you in BGW29, where Villa, Crystal Palace, Liverpool and Newcastle all blank. If you plan to use a chip then or have sufficient transfers to navigate that week, then I like the Isak to Watkins switch.
Verdict: Sell Isak to buy Watkins if it doesn't affect you in BGW29
Sam Bonfield (@FPLFamily)
It's always really tempting to invest heavily in Double Gameweek players. However, I won't be selling Isak for Watkins. Between now and BGW29, I'll need to sell players who are blanking, and so swapping one blanking player (Isak) for another (Watkins) would likely mean I would need at least a -4 points hit for BGW29, which therefore means it's worth it.
The arrivals of Donyell Malen (£5.5m), Marcus Rashford (£6.6m) and Marco Asensio (£6.0m) also means that minutes and points are likely to be shared, so I'll stick with Isak - especially given weekend opponents Manchester City's defensive vulnerabilities and the fact I would lose £0.3m in team value selling a player I know I will want back.
Verdict: Keep Isak
Gianni Buttice (@GianniButtice)
I am likely buying Watkins, but I will not be selling Isak to bring in the Villa forward. I'm surprised to see so many managers exploring this move. Isak is a long-term hold regardless of his BGW29 and while Watkins is a good option this week, he doesn't offer the output of Isak on current form. Given there isn't too much between them in terms of price, this is not a move I like at all.
Verdict: Keep Isak
Utkarsh Dalmia (@ZopharFPL)
If Watkins was fully fit and without any injury concerns, there is a conversation to be had. But with the Villa forward nursing an abductor injury, I think his minutes will be managed, with four games over an 11-day period. Isak's fixtures are difficult on paper, but he is still capable of outscoring Watkins and you will want him back for the kind run from Gameweek 30. Selling him and then buying him back will cost you a lot more.
Verdict: Keep Isak
Harry Daniels (@FPL_Harry)
The first thing to say on this transfer is that if Watkins is not guaranteed to be available, then it is a definite no. But if he is available, you are gaining an extra fixture in DGW25. However, it doesn't seem worth it. Isak has a good fixture against Man City and most of us have a lot of value tied up in the Newcastle star, which we would lose if we sell him.
Verdict: Keep Isak
Pras (@Pras_FPL)
I am not sure I would do that move this week for a couple of reasons. Firstly, Isak remains one of the most in-form forwards in Europe playing a Man City team that just conceded three goals at home to Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League.
Secondly, Watkins hasn't been training and missed the FA Cup victory over Tottenham Hotspur last weekend. If there are minutes concerns against Ipswich, he then plays Liverpool and Chelsea. If I want Watkins, I really need him for that Ipswich game, so what Unai Emery says in his pre-match press conference will be crucial.
Verdict: Keep Isak
Pranil Sheth (@Lateriser12)
If your team is in a good place for BGW29, I don't mind selling Watkins for Isak. But as things stand, there are fitness concerns surrounding Watkins and you will lose significant value on Isak, who is likely to get a Double Gameweek later on in the season, which is why I am very much against making the switch.
Verdict: Keep Isak