As sales of Cole Palmer (£11.2m) escalate in Fantasy Premier League, The Scout delves into the data to assess the Chelsea star’s recent drop in output.
After blanking for the third time in four Gameweeks in the Blues’ 3-0 defeat at Brighton & Hove Albion, Palmer has been moved on by over 108,000 managers – the third most-sold player ahead of Friday’s 18:30 GMT deadline.
The midfielder has managed just a single assist and 12 points over those matches against Brighton, West Ham United, Manchester City and Wolverhampton Wanderers.
What’s all the more galling for his 62 per cent ownership is that Palmer produced a HUGE 52 points in his meetings with those same opponents earlier this season!
That includes hauls of 25 and 17 points against Brighton and Wolves, with the England star claiming six goals and three assists across those encounters.
Palmer’s eight matches against his last four opponents
| GW | Pts | GW | Pts | |
| Man City | 1 | 2 | 23 | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves | 2 | 17 | 22 | 2 |
| West Ham | 5 | 8 | 24 | 6 |
| Brighton | 6 | 25 | 25 | 2 |
Notably, Palmer played part of the contest at Brighton up front after their first-choice forward Nicolas Jackson (£7.7m) was ruled out until April.
A quick look at the Bonus Points System (BPS) - which assesses a number of metrics to determine the bonus points in each match – shows Palmer is far less influential when playing as a forward. His score of 12 points in the BPS against Brighton was his third-worst of 2024/25 Fantasy and lowest since Gameweek 11, at home to Arsenal.
Is Palmer still getting big chances?
Due to his recent drought, it’s perhaps easy to forget that Palmer is still the second top-scoring player in Fantasy, behind Mohamed Salah (£13.7m).
The Chelsea midfielder’s 175 points places him 12 ahead of his nearest challenger, Nottingham Forest’s Chris Wood (£7.1m).
A look at Palmer’s involvement in big chances – a situation where the player is expected to score - shows why he holds such huge potential for goals and assists.
His totals of 17 big chances and 18 big chances created both rank second among midfielders this season.
But what is noticeable is that Palmer was involved in ZERO big chances over the last four Gameweeks.
Although he had 13 shots, just six of them were in the box, with Palmer also creating six chances.
Palmer's attacking stats, GW22-25
| Shots in box | Big chances | Chances created | Big chances created | |
| Total | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
|---|
Which midfielders have been involved in the most big chances recently?
By contrast, 11 midfielders have been involved in at least FOUR big chances across the last four Gameweeks.
AFC Bournemouth’s Dango Ouattara (£5.1m) leads the way thanks to his recent move up front – he’s had seven big chances and created one, giving him a total of eight big-chance involvements. His team-mates Justin Kluivert (£6.0m) and Antoine Semenyo (£5.7m) also impress.
While Palmer has suffered a major drop off, his fellow big-hitter Salah ranks joint-second on six big-chance involvements – a total equalled by Brighton’s Yankuba Minteh (£5.0m) and Arsenal’s Leandro Trossard (£6.9m).
Best midfielders for big-chance involvement, GW22-25
| Player | Shots in box | Big chances | Big chances created | Big-chance involvement |
| Ouattara | 10 | 7 | 1 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salah | 10 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Minteh | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Trossard | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Foden | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Kluivert | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Schade | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Semenyo | 11 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Adama | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Jota Silva | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Lindstrom | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Rotate your mobile device to see the full table
Do Chelsea have a good schedule?
At a time of the season where managers are preparing for the reduced Blank Gameweek 29 (BGW29), Chelsea’s very favourable run of opponents will surely give Palmer the chance to get more points.
Back-to-back home matches against promoted pair Southampton and Leicester City in Gameweeks 27-28 could barely be kinder. They both rank among the worst three clubs for conceding both goals and big chances in away matches this season.
Leicester and Southampton away stats, 24/25
| Leicester | Southampton | |
| Matches | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| Goals conceded | 32 | 24 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Big chances conceded | 44 | 42 |
Palmer, meanwhile, is the second top-scoring player in home matches, with his record in such contests near-identical to Salah. At home in 2024/25 Fantasy, the Chelsea star has averaged 8.0 points per match (ppm) compared with Salah’s 8.6ppm.
Palmer has scored eight goals and supplied four assists in 12 Stamford Bridge outings, earning a further 22 bonus points.
Salah v Palmer in home matches, 24/25
| Player | G + A | Bonus | PPM | Pts |
| Salah | 14 | 15 | 8.6 | 103 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmer | 12 | 22 | 8.0 | 96 |
Crucially, Chelsea also have a match in BGW29 - albeit at Arsenal – in a Gameweek where other highly-owned assets such as Salah and Newcastle United’s Alexander Isak (£9.5m) are without a fixture.
So, what should Palmer owners do?
There’s no doubt that the drop off in big-chance involvement is a real concern for Palmer backers, and it remains to be seen whether Chelsea can find a solution in Jackson’s absence.
Nonetheless, those two home matches alone are surely worth holding Palmer for, while a match in BGW29 gives Fantasy managers one less problem to navigate.
A good tactic could now be to take this four-Gameweek period to dead-end your squad with players who have favourable short-term fixtures before Wildcarding in Gameweek 30.
With more Double and Blank Gameweeks expected over the run-in, being flexible with your squad and transfer plans will be vital to profit from those extra matches.
While Chelsea’s schedule merits Palmer a short-term reprieve, any failure to improve his big chance-involvement and his role as a must-have for the remainder of the season will surely come into question.
