The Scout explains how and why managers in Fantasy Premier League can “dead-end” their squads into Blank Gameweek 29, before using the Wildcard chip in Gameweek 30.
What is 'dead-ending'?
To dead-end your squad, you must first decide on the Gameweek where you are going to play your Wildcard chip and pick a whole new squad.
Then, in the preceding Gameweeks, you use your free transfers to bring in players with favourable short-term fixtures who you aren't planning to keep long-term. You are building a team that has a fixed end date and no long-term future, hence the term "dead-ending".
When you use your Wildcard, you then transfer out those players as part of a complete squad overhaul.
Why is Gameweek 29 a good time for dead-ending?
Liverpool and Newcastle United’s progress to the EFL Cup final has major repercussions in Fantasy.
That cup final takes place on the same weekend as Gameweek 29 in Fantasy, which means both Liverpool and Newcastle United, along with Aston Villa and Crystal Palace, will have a Blank Gameweek 29 (BGW29) where they don't play a Premier League match.
Players from all four clubs will score zero points in BGW29.
Instead of the 10 usual fixtures in a Gameweek, there will only be eight.
BGW29 schedule
Everton v West Ham
Ipswich v Nottingham Forest
Man City v Brighton
Southampton v Wolves
Bournemouth v Brentford
Arsenal v Chelsea
Fulham v Spurs
Leicester v Man Utd
Managers will be deprived of two of the three most-popular players in Fantasy, Mohamed Salah (£13.7m) and Alexander Isak (£9.5m), who are selected in 71 and 57 per cent of squads respectively.
On top of that, three of the six most-owned defenders have a BGW29. Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.4m) is the most-picked player in this position, boasting a 32 per cent ownership, while Lewis Hall (£5.0m) and Virgil van Dijk (£6.4m) are each found in 23 per cent of squads.
Four of the eight most-owned midfielders – Salah, Morgan Rogers (£5.7m), Luis Diaz and Anthony Gordon (both £7.5m) - will miss out, as will two of the four most-owned forwards, Isak and Cody Gakpo (£7.6m).
With so many popular players unavailable in BGW29, many managers will dead-end their squads by focusing their transfers on the next four Gameweeks alone. They will then use their Wildcard in Gameweek 30 to refresh their squad in preparation for the run-in.
Newcastle and Crystal Palace assets will be very popular picks on a Wildcard as they are the only two clubs who have a Double Gameweek 32 (DGW32).
Another advantage to Wildcarding in Gameweek 30 is that by this point we will know the four clubs who have reached the semi-finals of the FA Cup.
This will be vital in determining your chip strategy as it affects Blank Gameweek 34 (BGW34), and should lead to another Double Gameweek later in the season.
Which BGW29 clubs should managers invest in?
With every outfield position heavily impacted by BGW29, managers should plan ahead to ensure they can field a competitive FPL line-up in that Gameweek.
By using the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), the idea is to identify clubs and players who have great fixtures over the next four Gameweeks to help you navigate this tricky period.
AFC Bournemouth and Brentford both have the schedules to merit investment right now.
According to the FDR, each of their next four matches score a combined total of 10. This is the joint-lowest total of all the 16 clubs who have a fixture in BGW29.
Total FDR for BGW29 clubs in next four GWs
| Clubs | FDR total |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth, Brentford, Everton, Wolves | 10 |
| Chelsea, Fulham, Leicester, Man Utd | 11 |
| Arsenal, Brighton, Ipswich, Spurs, West Ham | 12 |
| Man City, Nott'm Forest, Southampton | 14 |
Bournemouth kick off that run with a home match against Wolverhampton Wanderers this weekend, and they offer a host of options in defence and midfield.
At the back, Milos Kerkez (£5.0m) has the greatest all-round attacking potential, while Dean Huijsen (£4.5m) is a big threat at set-pieces.
Midfield trio Dango Ouattara (£5.1m), Patrick Kluivert (£6.0m) and Antoine Semenyo (£5.7m) all boast a significant goal threat, with the former thriving since being moved up front recently.
Meanwhile, Brentford’s Bryan Mbeumo (£7.9m) and Yoane Wissa (£6.3m) can also repay immediate investment away to Leicester City on Friday evening.
Similarly, Brighton & Hove Albion face a promoted club this weekend, with a visit to Southampton lifting Kaoru Mitoma's (£6.3m) prospects of more goals. But the downside of investing in the Seagulls is that they visit Manchester City in BGW29.
Wait a week before getting Cunha
Assessing the schedule not only shows the best assets to invest in, it also highlights WHEN is the best time to transfer those players into your squad.
For example, Wolves forward Matheus Cunha (£6.8m) is likely to be a popular pick for managers in BGW29 as he faces Southampton.
But a visit to Bournemouth this weekend – when Wissa faces Leicester – means you can afford to wait a week before bringing in Cunha.
Wolves have back-to-back home matches against Fulham and Everton in Gameweeks 27-28 before visiting St Mary’s Stadium in BGW29.
Move for Forest players in BGW29
A triple-up on Nottingham Forest could prove very profitable in BGW29 when they visit promoted Ipswich Town.
However, Forest have a brutal run of fixtures ahead of that enticing match, facing Newcastle, Arsenal and Man City in the next three Gameweeks.
So if you already own Chris Wood (£7.1m) and want to triple up on Forest for BGW29, it’s best to wait until Gameweek 29 before using two free transfers to bring in additional Forest players.
Neco Williams (£4.4m) and Anthony Elanga (£5.3m) offer great options in defence and midfield respectively if you’re looking to dead-end with budget picks.
