Analysis: Battle of the transition stars can decide key top-four duel

Ahead of Sunday's contest, football writer Adrian Clarke analyses Newcastle and Nottingham Forest's fearsome counter-attacks, which could decide this battle between the two top-four hopefuls. 

Match analysis: Newcastle United v Nottingham Forest

Six points and four places separate Newcastle and Forest heading into the weekend ahead of a match-up that could have a big say on who finishes in the top four.

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Neither side has been at their best in recent weeks, dropping unexpected points, but they remain two of the best-coached sides in the Premier League this season.

Premier League

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
3	Nott'm Forest NFO	25	+12	47
4	Man City MCI	25	+17	44
5	Bournemouth BOU	25	+15	43
6	Chelsea CHE	25	+13	43
7	Newcastle NEW	25	+9	41

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Will Nuno switch his formation?

It has been Nuno Espirito Santo’s trademark this season to switch from a 4-2-3-1 to three at the back late on in matches to help them protect leads.

Adding centre-back Morato to his defence alongside the formidable Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo consistently proved to be an effective tactical change.

Callum Hudson-Odoi’s recent injury prompted the Forest head coach to consider a 3-5-2 as his starting formation, and it worked quite brilliantly in their 7-0 thrashing of Brighton & Hove Albion.

They were solid out of possession, and the balance of the side worked perfectly, with Anthony Elanga partnering Chris Wood in attack.

He retained that shape away to Fulham last time out, but in that encounter they struggled defensively. 

Forest's defensive stats v Fulham

Marco Silva’s side had 24 shots, including 10 on target, in a one-sided 2-1 success.

Morato struggled on the right of Forest’s back three, allowing Emile Smith Rowe to sneak in behind him to convert Adama Traore’s cross, as you can see below.

With that fresh in his mind and Hudson-Odoi now fit enough to start, I anticipate Nuno will be reverting to his tried and trusted 4-2-3-1 at St James’ Park.

The supply lines

Alexander Isak and Wood have been two of the standout strikers this season, netting 17 and 18 goals each respectively.

Individually they have been superb, but the service into them has also been excellent.

Six of Jacob Murphy’s eight Premier League assists this season have been for Isak, including all his last four, plus another in the EFL Cup semi-final against Arsenal.

The Magpies love to slip the winger in behind full-backs for him to square the ball for their prolific Swede, as shown below against Aston Villa.

This means left-back Neco Williams must try to ensure there are no gaps for Newcastle to play passes like this into Murphy’s path.

He has to get his distances right to block off those passing lanes.

Murphy can play Isak or others in with excellent through-balls - just as he did at Southampton last month - but the bulk of his best work is from the right side of the box.

Elanga shares a similar relationship with Forest’s leading marksman Wood.

He provided two goals for the New Zealander in that 7-0 win over Brighton & Hove Albion, serving up two delightful crosses; one on to Wood’s head, the other across the ground for a tap-in.

Overall, he has now supplied Wood with four assists in 2024/25, from a total of eight.

As it stands ahead of Matchweek 26, only three Premier League players have assisted more times than Murphy and Elanga's eight so far this season.

Counters will be crucial

These two teams are among the very best at breaking with pace to take the ball from one end of the pitch to the other.

No one moves the ball faster than Forest, who average a direct speed of 2.11metres/sec, and they both rank inside the top group of teams for the most direct attacks.

PL teams with the most direct attacks 

More importantly, the last three league meetings between these two teams have all featured stunning breakaway goals.

In the corresponding fixture last season, Forest won 3-1 with a classic display of counter-attacking football, scoring twice from sensational moves.

Wood notched a hat-trick that day, and two of the assists came from Elanga, whose pace and decision making on the break had a devastating effect.

Eddie Howe’s side also struggled to cope with Elanga and Forest’s counters in their contest a year ago at the City Ground.

The 22-year-old wide man raced on to a Morgan Gibbs-White pass to score from a quickly constructed attack which swept from back to front in a flash, as shown below.

In their last meeting, a 3-1 away success for Howe’s Newcastle turned the tables, with the Magpies flexing their muscles on the break.

During a classy performance, goals from Joelinton and Harvey Barnes sealed the victory, with both strikes coming from length of the pitch counter-attacks.

Forest 1-3 Newcastle highlights, 24/25

The side that handles the other teams’ breaks best this Sunday are likely to prevail.

Piercing the backline

Newcastle are likely to have the bulk of possession against a Forest side who average just 39.7 per cent of the ball.

For this reason, it will be the visitors who enjoy more transition opportunities, but that is not to say the Magpies can’t also profit from those situations.

When they do turn the ball over and look to catch Nuno’s men off guard, the hosts will expect Bruno Guimaraes to make things happen.

The talented Brazilian has attempted 20 through-balls and completed 11, both more than any other player in the Premier League this season.

Most through-balls attempted, 24/25

Gibbs-White is the main man is this department for Forest, and having performed well in this fixture last season, he will hope to knit things together once again.

Delivering four goals and five assists across his last 11 appearances, the England international is one of several potential matchwinners on show in this pivotal, tactically fascinating fixture.

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