Football writer Alex Keble assesses Arsenal's 1-0 home defeat to West Ham United, which leaves them eight points behind league leaders Liverpool.
For disconsolate Arsenal supporters filing out of Emirates Stadium on Saturday evening this was a familiar, sinking feeling.
For the second season in a row, West Ham United have beaten Arsenal on their own turf. For the second season in a row, the damage to the Gunners’ title hopes could be damaging.
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“Big blow,” was captain Martin Odegaard’s assessment, speaking to BBC's Match of the Day. “The performance today wasn't good enough. Really disappointed.”
Those clipped sentences really say it all. The title race isn’t over, but after another red card, more trouble in attack and another loss to West Ham, the path to a first title in 21 years is getting smaller.
An eight-point gap leaves Arsenal needing an historic turnaround.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
26 | +36 | 61 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
26 | +28 | 53 |
| 3 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
25 | +12 | 47 |
| 4 |
Man City
MCI
|
25 | +17 | 44 |
The maths don't look good for Arsenal.
Only twice in Premier League history has a team overturned an eight-point gap at 22 February or later (excluding occasions when the chasing club had games in hand), and both were iconic title races precisely because they were virtually unprecedented.
In 1995/96 Newcastle United infamously blew a lead that, in mid-February that year, was nine points over Manchester United with Sir Alex Ferguson’s side having played an extra game.
In 2011/12 Ferguson’s United were eight points clear of Manchester City in April, with 32 matches played. Roberto Mancini’s side managed to overturn it – but it took the Sergio Aguero moment to do it.
Arsenal need something just as momentous.
Shortcomings in attack cost Arsenal
“We lacked a bit in final-third efficiency,” Odegaard told BBC's Match of the Day. “We have to see the game back and analyse it but it wasn't good enough.
“It wasn't good enough in front of the goal. With the red card, it was tricky as well.”
The red card certainly didn’t help, but the pattern had been set long before then.
Arsenal managed just two shots on target, their third-lowest tally of the season, and created just once big chance according to Opta, their joint-fewest in a Premier League game.
It isn’t news to say that injuries to Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus have blunted Arsenal’s attack.
But after his heroics in the 2-0 victory at Leicester City there were hopes Mikel Merino would be their savour as a makeshift No 9.
Those hopes were dashed on Saturday when Merino cut an isolated figure in the final third, managing just two shots – neither on target – and just eight touches in West Ham's penalty area.
“Not enough creativity,” was the assessment of a bereft Ian Wright, Arsenal's legendary former striker. “It seemed like we had completely run out of ideas.”
West Ham dent Arsenal's title hopes for second season in row
Credit must be given to Graham Potter for enacting a perfect game-plan to become the second manager to win at Emirates Stadium with three different clubs (also Ostersunds FK and Brighton & Hove Albion) after Carlo Ancelotti.
Indeed, Potter has the highest win percentage of any opposition manager to take charge of three or more games at Arsenal, with 80 per cent. Only Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp have more wins, with eight and six respectively.
He knows how to get a result on this ground.
Potter’s decision to deploy a 3-5-2 formation for the first time as West Ham head coach proved to be a masterstroke, allowing the visitors to defend rigidly with a flat back five and solid midfield three while maintaining a significant counter-attacking threat.
Mohammed Kudus and Jarrod Bowen - the split strikers who sat on Arsenal’s defensive line - might not have created many chances but their lurking threat played a significant role in making Arsenal slow and passive.
Arsenal’s tendency to go sideways, rarely risking the incisive forward pass required to break the game open, was forced upon them by the fear of what could happen if they risked and lost the ball.
To a certain extent their caution was proved right, in that West Ham ruthlessly punished Arsenal when rare counter-attacking opportunities arose.
The Hammers had three fast breaks according to Opta, their second-most in a league game this season, and scored from a fast break for the first time since Matchweek 2.
It was a perfect example of the under-appreciated value of deploying two quick forwards ready for the counter. It doesn’t just give you the chance to break quickly. It also forces the opponent to be overly cautious in their own attacking play.
Liverpool have a huge chance at Man City
Ten days ago, when Liverpool began a two-week period that would contain away trips to Goodison Park, Villa Park and the Etihad Stadium, there was surely optimism inside Arsenal that the balance of power could shift.
It did – but not in the way they had imagined it.
A lot of pressure has been taken off Liverpool’s game at Manchester City on Sunday, and it also represents a glorious chance to deliver a psychological hammer blow to Arteta’s side.
Victory at Man City – by far Liverpool’s most difficult away game remaining - would open up an 11-point lead and show that Arne Slot’s side have what Arsenal don’t: a killer instinct, an ability to capitalise on slip-ups.
The beauty for Liverpool fans is that they can now afford one or two of those themselves.
“You would be excited, you would be delighted,” said former Liverpool striker Michael Owen after the game, describing the feeling in the Reds' camp upon seeing this result. “It means you can have a big slip-up yourself - not that you’re aiming for that, but it just gives you a real cushion.”
Owen went on to suggest that Arsenal need to win all 12 of their remaining games from here. He might be right.
Should Liverpool win tomorrow, then even if Arsenal win every match left – giving them 89 points – Liverpool would only need 25 points from their final 11 games, or eight wins, one draw and two defeats.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
If Liverpool are beaten tomorrow, Arsenal will get another chance to close the gap to five points, and with a head-to-head with Liverpool in May to come.
It isn’t over yet. But today, without even playing, Liverpool have taken another big leap forward in the title race.
