Football writer Adrian Clarke identifies the key players, team tactics and where matches could be won and lost in Matchweek 29.
Player analysis: Martin Odegaard (Arsenal)
When Martin Odegaard rediscovers his best form, the likelihood is, so will Arsenal.
The Gunners skipper sets the tone for Mikel Arteta’s side, and by his own admission the gifted 26-year-old has fallen short of the elite standards he set across the previous two campaigns.
There are several reasons why the north Londoners currently find themselves 15 points behind leaders Liverpool.
But after scoring just twice (one penalty) and making only three assists in this season’s Premier League, the Norwegian’s waning influence has undoubtedly been one of those factors.
Ahead of a big London derby against top-four rivals Chelsea, let’s take a closer look at Odegaard’s season so far…
How important is Odegaard to Arsenal?
The Norwegian playmaker was the Premier League’s best attacking midfielder last season.
Statistically the division’s most creative player, he carved out 88 open play chances, 13 more than anybody else.
After delivering 40 direct goal contributions (23 goals, 17 assists) across 2022/23 and 2023/24, Odegaard has unexpectedly regressed this season. In fairness to him, an ankle injury earlier in the campaign disrupted his flow.
Odegaard is too talented for this dip to last, and the signs do suggest he may have turned the corner.
Serving up his best individual performance of the season in Arsenal’s record-breaking 7-1 win against PSV Eindhoven in the UEFA Champions League, Odegaard comes into the Chelsea match with renewed confidence.
Why has his goal threat diminished?
The raw numbers tell us Odegaard is shooting less often, and this is symptomatic of Arsenal as a side.
Shorn of so many top-class attacking talents, and consequently playing with slightly less panache, their shot count has dropped from 17.3 per 90 minutes to 13.9 this season.
Odegaard shooting stats in Premier League
| Per 90 minutes | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots |
2.66 |
2.24 |
1.81 |
| Shots in box |
1.35 |
1.10 |
0.93 |
| xG |
0.28 |
0.22 |
0.2 |
| Mins/Goal |
209.53 |
387.25 |
821 |
| Conversion rate % |
16.13% |
10.39% |
6.06% |
| Big chance conversion rate % |
55.56% |
50.00% |
33.30% |
Since netting 15 league goals in 2022/23, a career-best, all the former Real Madrid man’s attacking numbers have steadily dropped.
His shot conversion rate is especially disappointing, with his current figure of 6.06 per cent being the lowest of all 15 Arsenal players who have scored in the Premier League this season.
Odegaard also ranks low among the club's 15 league goalscorers for minutes per goal (12th), shots (eighth), shots inside the box (ninth), and Expected Goals (eighth).
The midfielder is enjoying more touches inside the box than he did two seasons ago, but his shooting has often been too tentative.
When you compare his shot placement in 2024/25 with the previous two campaigns, you can also see the Gunners’ skipper is finding the corners with far less regularity.
Shot placement compared by season
He did score against Manchester City at Emirates Stadium, slotting a Kai Havertz pass into an empty net, but that is Odegaard’s only open-play strike in the Premier League in 2024/25.
With Oleksandr Zinchenko scoring a wonderful individual goal when standing in for Odegaard in his attacking midfield role against PSV on Wednesday, there is maybe an extra incentive for the Norway international to find his shooting boots against Chelsea.
In the past his crisp, left-footed finishes have been outstanding, so it is likely to be a confidence issue rather than anything technical.
Why is he creating less this season?
Stylistically, Odegaard is not doing a lot of things differently compared to previous years.
He still attempts more through-balls than anybody else in the Premier League, he is making the same number of forward passes, and is putting the ball into the opposition box with even greater frequency than before.
Aside from the quantity of "big chances" he creates – which has remained identical – the Arsenal skipper’s numbers are largely down though.
So much so that eight different top-flight players are making more than his 1.92 open-play chances per 90 minutes; a drop from 2.56 in 2023/24.
Odegaard passing stats in Premier League
| Per 90 minutes | 2023/24 | 2024/25 |
|---|---|---|
| Assists |
0.29 |
0.16 |
| Expected Assists (xA) |
0.32 |
0.27 |
| Chances created (inc. assists) |
2.96 |
2.30 |
| Chances created from open play |
2.56 |
1.92 |
| Passes into the box (inc. crosses) |
7.55 |
8.28 |
| Forward passes |
17.20 |
17.87 |
| Big chances created |
0.49 |
0.49 |
| Secondary chances created |
2.03 |
1.26 |
| Progressive passes |
5.66 |
4.93 |
| Through-balls |
1.13 |
0.93 |
| Successful through-balls |
0.61 |
0.60 |
With forwards Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Havertz and Gabriel Jesus all missing lots of matches, and midfielder Mikel Merino standing in up front, it is clear Odegaard has less speed around him.
As someone who loves to slip passes in between defenders for team-mates to run into, Arsenal’s natural downturn in penetrative running power was always going to make it tougher for him to shine.
Too often in recent weeks, Odegaard has had to hold onto the ball longer than he wants, or resort to clipping hopeful balls into the box.
His shot-assist maps from this season and last season make interesting viewing.
Shot and assist maps compared by season
Very few of Odegaard’s key passes this season have originated from the right side, which is the area he occupies most.
Popping up in different areas and finding team-mates with vertical passes is his forte, and that has been more difficult for him to achieve with the changing personnel in attack.
Same role, different team-mates
Odegaard’s position has largely remained the same. He still plays as the right-sided box-to-box midfielder, with a remit to create in space between the lines.
The heat maps below do not indicate much change, aside from Odegaard spending longer periods in the wide areas, popping up centrally less often.
Between now and the end of the season, especially in the absence of a natural No 9, he could be more impactful drifting left more frequently, like he did in 2023/24.
Heat maps compared by season
Odegaard is also missing Saka.
The duo feed off one another and are in synch when it comes to producing incisive combination play.
This season they have been restricted to just 10 starts together in league action, with Arsenal unbeaten in all of those contests.
Arsenal with/without Odegaard & Saka
| Premier League 24/25 | With Odegaard AND Saka | Without Odegaard OR Saka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches |
10 |
18 |
| W |
6 |
9 |
| D |
4 |
6 |
| L |
0 |
3 |
| Goals/match |
2.20 |
1.66 |
| Points/match |
2.20 |
1.83 |
Arteta’s side score more goals and collect more points when Odegaard and Saka start together.
It is also no coincidence they both featured when Arsenal claimed a terrific away win at Aston Villa, and when they thrashed Nottingham Forest (3-0), West Ham United (5-2) and Crystal Palace (5-1).
A 5-1 demolition of Sporting CP in the UEFA Champions League also saw these two talents sparkle alongside each other.
When Saka returns after the international break, you can expect his presence to provide Odegaard with a huge lift.
In the meantime, performing with more positional freedom could be the key to the captain contributing more goals and assists.
Unpredictability has to be at the heart of what Arsenal do against Chelsea.