Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 26.
Newcastle United
With just three goals scored across their seven Premier League matches in 2023, Newcastle’s attack is misfiring ahead of their crucial trip to Manchester City.
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Goals have been an issue for Eddie Howe’s side, who have only registered more than one goal in one of their last nine matches.
This heaps greater pressure on Newcastle to maintain their outstanding defensive record, especially facing a team who have scored 41 goals at the Etihad Stadium this season in only 12 matches.
Newcastle's form has been excellent all season, losing just twice so far, both to Liverpool.
However, dropped points have become more commonplace since the turn of the year, and the principle reason is wasteful finishing.
Newcastle's goals/shot comparison 22/23
| MW1-9 | MW10-17 | MW 18-24 | |
| Goals | 12 | 19 | 3 |
| Expected Goals | 14.6 | 12.3 | 11.2 |
| Shot conv. rate (exc. blocks) | 14% | 26% | 4% |
| Shots inside box (inc. blocks) | 91 | 76 | 72 |
| Touches opp. box | 264 | 212 | 218 |
| Total big chances | 21 | 20 | 22 |
From early October up to a 3-0 win at Leicester City on Boxing Day, Newcastle produced an impressive 26 per cent shot conversion rate.
In that spell, when they claimed 22 points from a possible 24 and outscored their Expected Goals metric by 6.7.
Almiron's goal v AFC Bournemouth
Double figures for the season for Miguel Almirón! 👊🇵🇾 pic.twitter.com/FEOPV7bmRR
— Newcastle United FC (@NUFC) February 12, 2023
By comparison, Newcastle's conversion rate has been just four per cent in the seven matches that followed.
Frustratingly, this has left them 8.2 goals behind their xG tally for that period.
They have fashioned more quality opportunities than at any other stage of the campaign, but too many of those chances have been squandered.
Open-play struggles
Clinical finishing is always integral to success, but for Newcastle, it is arguably more important than most because they create fewer chances than their rivals.
Shots from open play 2022/23
| Club | Open-play shots | PL rank |
|---|---|---|
| Man City | 305 | 1st |
| Arsenal | 295 | 2nd |
| Man Utd | 288 | 3rd |
| Liverpool | 273 | 4th |
| Newcastle | 194 | 14th |
They have been incredibly dangerous from set-pieces all season, but in open play Newcastle are very much a work in progress.
As a team, they must produce more periods of sustained pressure and rely less on individuals delivering moments of inspiration.
Relying on Trippier
The likes of Miguel Almiron, Joelinton, Joe Willock, and Bruno Guimaraes are all enjoying terrific campaigns, but their productivity inside the final third needs to improve.
Almiron is a good example. He has scored scored 10 Premier League goals, but has produced only one big chance in the whole of 2022/23.
Callum Wilson and Guimaraes will also be disappointed to have only laid on two big chances apiece.
Newcastle's chief creators 2022/23
| Chances created | Chances created in open play | Big chances created | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trippier | 70 | Trippier | 23 | Trippier | 18 |
| Joelinton | 19 | Joelinton | 19 | Longstaff | 5 |
| Willock | 19 | Willock | 19 | Willock | 5 |
| Guimaraes | 18 | Guimaraes | 18 | Joelinton | 4 |
| Longstaff | 18 | Longstaff | 18 | Saint-Maximin | 3 |
As the table above outlines, there is too much reliance on Kieran Trippier to produce chance-creating deliveries, in open play and from set-pieces.
While improving Newcastle's finishing is important, so too is the need for their attacking midfielders and forwards to make creative contributions on a regular basis.
If they are able to find a balance between attack and defence, Newcastle will be a formidable force.
Also in this series
Part 1: Selles' hostile Saints ready to tackle relegation rivals Leicester
Part 3: How Martinez added steel to Man Utd's defence