Erling Haaland’s (£13.9m) return to training for Manchester City is perfectly timed for managers in Fantasy Premier League.
The Norwegian’s improved chances of being fit for Gameweek 21 comes at a point when his fellow big-hitters Mohamed Salah (£13.2m) and Son Heung-min (£9.8m) are absent from domestic duties and could be missing until Gameweek 25 due to their participation in the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) and Asian Cup respectively.
Haaland’s recent injury has resulted in many managers opting for Ollie Watkins (£8.9m) and Dominic Solanke (£7.1m) as their forwards in the popular 3-5-2 formation in Fantasy.
But Haaland's potential return lifts the appeal of now moving to 3-4-3 by swapping out Salah or Son for a budget midfielder, then using the funds to bring in Haaland instead of their budget forward enabler such as Cameron Archer (£4.5m).
Having missed his side’s last four matches, Haaland’s ownership has shrunk from its previous high of 90 per cent to just 53 per cent. Yet his output as a fixture-proof captaincy option, particularly in the absence of Salah and Son, means he could be more vital than ever right now.
If he is available, managers in Fantasy must find a way to immediately get Haaland back into their squad.
Caution should still be exercised as Pep Guardiola gave an update on the fitness of the Norweigen, saying he is unsure on his availability ahead of Man City's away match at Newcastle United on Saturday 13 January.
Plan to return to 3-5-2
Although 3-4-3 looks a perfectly fine approach while Salah and Son are both absent, a look at the overall player standings shows just why the 3-5-2 has been the most popular formation until now, and why it is likely to be the most effective from Gameweek 25.
As the table below shows, of the 44 players to produce 70+ points this season, 25 are midfielders and only eight are forwards.
You can also see that this ratio of around three to one is maintained among the 23 players who have produced at least 80 points. Only five forwards have managed to do so, compared with 15 midfielders.
This highlights the wealth of opportunities available to managers in the midfield position when compared with forwards, offering a far broader pool of targets when it comes to making transfers.
No. of players with 70+ pts per position
| Position | 70-79pts | 80-89pts | 90-99pts | 100+ pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GKP | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DEF | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| MID | 9 | 7 | 4 | 5 |
| FWD | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Assessing the prices of the 23 players with 80+ points also shows the value available to managers in midfield.
There are eight players who cost £6.5m or less in Fantasy who have hit 80 points this season. SEVEN of those are midfielders and only one is a forward.
Of the 15 players who cost £7.5m or under in the 80+ points bracket, midfielders continue to lead the way with 11 compared with the three of forwards.
No. of players with 80+ pts per position
| Position | £5.0m-£6.5m | £6.6m-£7.5m | £8.0m+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| GKP | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DEF | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| MID | 7 | 4 | 5 |
| FWD | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Salah and Son’s potential for huge captain hauls means managers must find a place for both of them alongside Haaland upon their returns.
The midfield duo are the only two players to manage more than four double-figure hauls in 2023/24, with Salah amassing seven compared with the six of Son.
The scoring system in Fantasy has played a major part in their success, and shows why they are such strong captaincy rivals to Haaland.
Midfielders earn five points for every goal they score and also collect a single point when their side keep a clean sheet. Forwards are awarded only four points for each goal they score and do not benefit from clean sheets.
Who gets more double-figure hauls?
The statistics underline the dominance of midfielders when it comes to getting big Fantasy returns on a regular basis.
Of the 20 players who have collected 10+ points on at least three occasions this season, 14 are midfielders while only three are forwards.
The likes of Anthony Gordon (£6.1m) and Cole Palmer (£5.6m) have been budget sensations, each matching the four double-figure scores of Haaland.
By comparison, Aston Villa’s Watkins costs £8.9m but has only had three such hauls, the same number as Nottingham Forest’s Chris Wood (£4.9m).
No. of double-figure hauls per position
| Position | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeepers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Defenders | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Midfielders | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Forwards | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
So, what should managers do?
There is no doubt that bringing in Haaland is the top priority and managers should use the funds from the sales of Salah or Son to facilitate the move.
But although a 3-4-3 set-up can easily pay off immediately, it should be a very short-term move. When Salah and Son return, managers may want to return to spending big in midfield and having a cheap enabler up front, like Archer.
There are quite simply far more valid options in midfield than among forwards, in terms of both quantity and value, and a 3-5-2 formation is the best way to profit long-term.
Another factor here is player ownership among forwards.
Haaland and Watkins are both found in over 53 per cent of squads, while Julian Alvarez (£7.0m) and Solanke are owned by 35 and 27 per cent respectively.
Essentially, there is likely to be far less variety among the forward lines of 3-4-3 formations than in a five-man midfield, which limits your chances of climbing the rankings.
By contrast, the midfield positions will be shaken up by the return of Salah and Son, along with other assets such as Hwang Hee-Chan (£5.7m) and Mohammed Kudus (£6.9m).
There is no doubt that getting in Haaland should be the immediate priority.
But planning for the return of Salah and Son is every bit as important, and a 3-5-2 formation looks the best formation to build around in order to accommodate all three big-hitters from Gameweek 25.
View all the latest FPL tips ahead of Gameweek 21 in Fantasy Premier League
