The stats that show Liverpool are by far the strongest finishers

When we analyse the form guide and the scoring practices of Premier League clubs we rarely look beyond comparing their home and away records and strings of matches – “last five” being the most common - taken together.

But there is a lot that can be learnt from a deeper dive into the timings of a team’s goals: when in matches they tend to score and when they tend to concede.

Second-half goals are on the rise

There are huge variations from club to club – but also across seasons.

In 2023/24, 60.1 per cent of all Premier League goals have been scored in the second half, which is significantly higher than in any of the previous five campaigns (55.6 per cent in 2018/19 was the second-highest).

That is perhaps accounted for by the increase in additional time this season, and while this might not have extended the length of second halves compared with firsts, inevitably teams are pushing harder in second-half additional time.

A case in point is that 26.3 per cent of all Premier League goals are scored after the 75th minute this season, which is more than a 50 per cent increase on the next-most goals-heavy 15-minute segment (61-75minutes, at 17.3 per cent).

On the whole, teams are coming alive towards the end of matches – yet there are, of course, big differences between clubs.

Here are some of the most interesting takeaways:

Liverpool are league-leading in the final 15

Liverpool are one of only six teams to have a winning record in both first (17-11) and second (30-7) halves, but their goal difference is doubly as good between minutes 45 and 90.

They are substantially better as the match progresses, but particularly so in the final 15 minutes, when they hold a 19-5 record in terms of goals scored and conceded. They have scored at least five more goals than any other club in this period and conceded fewer than anyone bar Arsenal.

When clubs score and concede in the Premier League

Source: SoccerStats; *31-45 & 75-90 include stoppage time; stats are pre-MW22

The most likely explanation for this is that Jurgen Klopp has a rich variety of forward options available from the bench and, as a proactive manager, his changes tend to disrupt the opposition defence and take advantage of tiring legs.

We don’t have to go back very far for an example of this. They were drawing 0-0 with AFC Bournemouth at half-time in their most recent Premier League match, only for Klopp to make a half-time tactical switch that unlocked the contest, leading to a 4-0 win.

Liverpool are experts at grinding down teams, it would seem, or at least at working out how to rise to the top as matches progress. Between 61 and 75 minutes, they have scored six goals and conceded none for the season.

This will also explain why they are clear leaders of the Premier League table for second-half performances, compared with ranking sixth in the table for performances in the opening 45 minutes (see below).

Sheff Utd let down by poor start and finish

Sheffield United are one of only two clubs, along with Bournemouth, who do not have a positive goal difference in a single 15-minute segment.

The Blades have also conceded the most goals (17) in the final 15 minutes of Premier League matches, which suggests Chris Wilder’s main objective is to improve the team’s fitness and concentration.

However, arguably worse than that is Sheff Utd’s opening 30 minutes, in which they are so far yet to score a single goal.

They are 0-13 in that first half-hour, a record that simply must change if the Blades are to have any hope of survival.

Man Utd’s slow starts Ten Hag’s biggest problem

Crystal Palace, Burnley, and Manchester United are the only three clubs who have just a single 15-minute positive goal difference segment: Erik ten Hag’s side are 8-6 in minutes 76-90, but even or negative across the other five.

Look a little closer, and it’s clear the issue is at the beginning of matches. They are 6-11 across the first 30 minutes and 18-18 for the rest of their matches, a trend that is even more pronounced at Old Trafford.

In home matches, Man Utd are 1-3 in the first 15 minutes and 2-7 in 16-30, but are either even or positive for every other segment.

In short, slow starts are the problem. Again, we don’t have to go back very far to see this. Aston Villa were 2-0 up at half-time on Boxing Day, only to lose 3-2.

Chelsea an outlier with first-half prominence

The only team in the Premier League who have scored more first-half goals than second-half goals is Chelsea (51.4 per cent of the total), and the Blues are the only side who possess a positive goal difference in the first half (18-10) but a negative one in the second (17-21).

The gap is large, too, which tells us that Mauricio Pochettino’s side start very strongly but then tail off, and indeed this is particularly prominent in the final 15 minutes, in which they have scored five and conceded 11.

One possible explanation is this is an extension of their well-known goalscoring issues, and essentially the inverse of why Liverpool – with all their attacking options on the bench – are performing so well in the final period of matches.

Chelsea are underperforming against their Expected Goals (xG) by -7.6, which is more than anyone else, and with Christopher Nkunku out injured they have had very few senior forward options available to bring on in the second half.

Luton come alive in the final minutes

Luton Town are outscored in almost every 15-minute segment, and indeed have a minus goal difference in the first (6-11) and second (18-27) halves.

But there is a pretty dramatic outlier to this: Luton are 14-8 in the final quarter of an hour, which makes them the second-highest scorers, behind Liverpool, in the final 15 minutes.

Consequently 75 per cent of their goals (a league high) are scored in the second half, while the average minute of their first goal is the 66th (the division’s latest).

Perhaps this is because Rob Edwards’ tactical strategy is deliberately designed to keep things tight, with a low defensive block, and only to open up when the contest state necessitates it late on.

Furthermore, Luton tend to use direct counter-attacks to get forward, and it is possible there are more gaps for these fast breaks when legs tire towards the end of matches.

Results suggest as much. Two of Luton’s four Premier League victories this season were courtesy of winners scored later than the 80th minute and three of their four draws contained goals in the final 10 minutes, too.

Arsenal know how to end strong

Only Liverpool have a higher positive goal difference in the final 15 minutes than Arsenal (13-3), whose 13 goals in the 76th minute or later accounts for 30 per cent of their entire total scored.

Arsenal are one of two clubs, along with Manchester City, who have a positive goal difference in every single 15-minute segment, but nevertheless there is a notable upturn as matches go on: they are 16-9 in the first 45 and 26-11 in the second, a goal difference more than twice as large.

Interestingly, during the recent five-match spell in which they won only four points, the 2-0 win over Brighton was the only match in which Arsenal scored later than the fifth minute.

What has changed, then, isn’t Arsenal suddenly becoming too predictable in attack, as many have claimed, but rather their ability to shake things up in the final minutes.

Man City need to stay vigilant at home

As you might expect, there aren’t too many negatives to pick out from Man City’s goalscoring times.

However, it is noteworthy that in the final 30 minutes of home matches they have scored seven and conceded seven, holding a goal difference of zero in minutes 61-75 (3-3) and 76-90 (4-4).

City have conceded in the 80th minute or later in all three of the home matches in which they have dropped points: the 1-1 draw with Liverpool, 3-3 draw with Tottenham Hotspur, and 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace.

In fact, seven of the nine goals conceded at the Etihad in 2023/24 have been in the final 30 minutes.

Pep Guardiola will know he needs to find a way to keep his team focused and resilient right to the final whistle.

Aston Villa start fast at home, but slip up after half-time away

Only Newcastle United (19 points) have a bigger gap between their home and away form than Aston Villa (13 points), who need to improve their record away from Villa Park if they are to challenge for the Premier League title.

Looking at when they score and concede goals is revealing. At home, Villa are 10-0 in the first 30 minutes, reflecting their brilliant fast starts and their commanding presence in front of their home support from the off.

Away from home, what sticks out is a 1-7 score from minutes 46 to 60, indicating that Villa are slow to get back into the action after half-time.

So pronounced is this goal difference compared with any other segment, Unai Emery might entirely fix Villa’s away form issues if he can just get his team to focus, and tighten up, through that first 15 minutes after the break.

Table based on first-half performances

*pre-MW22

Table based on second-half performances

*pre-MW22