A home match for Erling Haaland (£15.4m) against Southampton is a classic example of “form versus fixture” in Gameweek 9 of Fantasy Premier League.
The Manchester City star has frustrated his huge 73 per cent ownership with three successive blanks, failing to score against Newcastle United, Fulham and Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Yet Southampton arrive at the Etihad Stadium in dire defensive form. They rank among the bottom three sides for conceding goals, shots in the box and big chances – situations where the player is expected to score.
Haaland’s return to form, with two goals at home to Sparta Prague in the UEFA Champions League in midweek, is another reason why millions of managers are likely to keep the faith and captain the Norwegian.
However, his recent lack of big chances does raise enough doubt to avoid Triple-Captaining Haaland.
He had 10 big chances over the first five Gameweeks and scored 10 goals. But Haaland has had ZERO such scoring opportunities in his last three matches, only the second time in his Man City career this has occurred.
Who are the best alternatives to Haaland?
Haaland’s potential for a monster haul makes him too good to ignore as the top armband option for Gameweek 9.
His fellow big-hitter Mohamed Salah (£12.6m) is excluded from our list of the best alternatives as the Liverpool winger seems an unnecessary risk for a tough away trip to Arsenal.
Chelsea's home match against Newcastle, on the other hand, gives Cole Palmer (£10.9m) the chance of another huge haul in Fantasy. He has averaged 8.6 points per match (ppm) this season, scoring six goals and supplying five assists.
Palmer has been involved in – scored or assisted – 65 per cent of his side's goals when on the pitch, a clear sign of his talismanic importance to the Blues.
Ollie Watkins (£9.1m) and Bryan Mbeumo (£7.6m) also have favourable home fixtures, versus AFC Bournemouth and Ipswich Town respectively.
Watkins has been involved in a combined total of seven goals, scoring five and assisting two, compared with Mbeumo's six. However, the latter has been far more reliable in home matches this season. Indeed, Mbeumo has scored in all four of his appearances at the Gtech Community Stadium.
Tottenham Hotspur's Son Heung-min (£9.9m) also has to be considered away to Crystal Palace. The South Korean has averaged 6.8ppm, with two double-figure hauls in six appearances.
Attacking output in GW1-8
| Player | G | A | Pts/match | Involvement in team's goals* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmer | 6 | 5 | 8.6 | 65% |
| Son | 3 | 2 | 6.8 | 38% |
| Mbeumo | 6 | 0 | 6.6 | 43% |
| Watkins | 5 | 2 | 6.1 | 54% |
*applies only to time period when player is on pitch
Who has been involved in the most big chances?
Assessing the underlying statistics also helps to shed more light on each player's potential for both goals and assists.
Palmer's all-round style of play is very much in evidence here. He's had eight big chances and created a further nine, with his combined total of 17 big-chance involvements more than any other player in 2024/25 Fantasy.
Even more encouraging is his goal conversion rate of 21.4 per cent. That’s the lowest on show and therefore looks particularly sustainable for a player of Palmer’s class. Indeed, he may be able to improve it.
Big-chance involvement in GW1-8
| Player | Big chances | Big chances created | Big-chance involvement | Goal conversion rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmer | 8 | 9 | 17 | 21.4% |
| Watkins | 12 | 1 | 13 | 27.8% |
| Mbeumo | 6 | 5 | 11 | 35.3% |
| Son | 3 | 4 | 7 | 25.0% |
That makes Palmer the best alternative to Haaland for the captaincy, with Watkins' major goal threat giving him the edge over the other contenders. The Villa forward's total of 12 big chances is more than any other player this season.