Football writer Alex Keble analyses where the weekend fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Whether Arsenal will cope without first-team players
- Lopetegui using Moyes' tactics to beat Man Utd
- If Chelsea's style will solve Newcastle's scoring problems
- If Hurzeler's side can enter the top-four race
- Whether Jimenez can achieve goalscoring feat
- Brentford's home form being too much for Ipswich
- Haaland ending mini-goal drought in the league
- Glasner avoiding Palace's longest winless start
- If rotation can help Villa cope
Can Arsenal cope without star players?
A week is a long time in football.
Before Saturday’s match at AFC Bournemouth, Arsenal - unbeaten in the Premier League and a point off the top - looked well-placed to move above a Liverpool side yet to play an opponent in the top four under Arne Slot.
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But over the last two encounters, a 2-0 defeat at the Vitality Stadium and a low-energy 1-0 win over Shakhtar Donetsk in the UEFA Champions League, Arsenal have lost William Saliba to suspension and Riccardo Calafiori to injury, further weakening a side already coping without Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka.
No Arsenal player has scored since Saka’s absence (the winner against Shakhtar was an own goal), which is a concern considering Liverpool have conceded the fewest goals, with three, and have produced the lowest Expected Goals Against (xGA), 6.2, in the Premier League this season.
Yet it’s at the back where Mikel Arteta’s team look most vulnerable.
Since Saliba’s debut in August 2022, Arsenal have a 75 per cent win rate with him in the side and a 45 per cent win rate without him.
Add to that Calafiori’s injury and doubts over Jurrien Timber’s fitness and Arsenal are getting close to an injury crisis.
When the next opponent boasts the league’s second-highest Expected Goals (xG) score of 16.0, the timing could scarcely be worse.
Still, to win titles you have to overcome adversity.
This is no doubt a difficult moment for Arsenal. But get the three points and Arteta’s side will emerge with a newfound belief in their own resilience.
Can Lopetegui channel 'inner Moyes' to beat Man Utd?
The second-half collapse at Tottenham Hotspur was glaring evidence of West Ham United’s fragility, while they struggle with the transition from David Moyes’ reactive football to a possession and pressing philosophy.
Too often the defence is still backpedaling while the forwards press; too often the team is caught between a rock and a hard place, creating a stretched formation that opponents can easily pierce.
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In time, Julen Lopetegui will hope his football takes hold, but for this weekend’s visit of Manchester United, he would be better off embracing his players’ "Moyesian" muscle memory.
West Ham have won their last two Premier League home matches against Man Utd, both to nil. On each occasion, Moyes did what Moyes does best: deploy a low block, concede possession (65 per cent in each encounter) and hit on the counter-attack.
That should instruct Lopetegui of the strategy to take, as should Crystal Palace’s strong showing in a 0-0 draw with Man Utd back in September, when Oliver Glasner’s side held 33 per cent possession.
To move forward, West Ham must temporarily take a step back.
Will Chelsea's tactics solve Newcastle’s goalscoring woes?
Having flown out of the blocks, with 10 points from the first four matches of the season, Newcastle United’s abrupt slowdown is a cause for concern. They haven’t won any of their last four Premier League matches, drawing two and losing two, and have failed to score in each of their last two encounters.
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Newcastle drew 0-0 with Everton and lost 1-0 to Brighton & Hove Albion despite amassing their two highest xG scores of the season, 2.1 and 2.0 respectively. Eddie Howe’s side would be in the top four, then, if they could just finish their chances.
A visit to Stamford Bridge should put that right. Only five clubs - all in the bottom eight - have conceded more shots on target than Chelsea's 45, who despite their lofty league position have consistently taken part in end-to-end matches.
Enzo Maresca’s hard-pressing football is leaving plenty of transitional space - hence the wildness of their 4-2 win against Brighton and 6-2 victory over Wolverhampton Wanderers - and attacking quickly after the ball turns over is Newcastle’s speciality.
Alexander Isak, with only one goal in six matches, will appreciate the chance to stretch his legs, as will the explosive Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes.
Can Hurzeler’s side enter the top-four race?
Brighton’s record of 15 points from eight matches is impressive, particularly having already played five of last season’s top eight, and yet, counter-intuitively, the bigger tests are still to come.
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On the face of it, a home match against the league’s bottom side is simple enough, yet these are precisely the matches that Brighton have struggled to win at this early stage of the Fabian Hurzeler project.
Brighton have taken only six points from five Premier League matches in which they have held more than 50 per cent possession, and won all three of those games in which they have held less than 50 per cent.
Brighton's results based on possession share
| Matchweek | Possession | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | 70% | Draw |
| 4 | 68% | Draw |
| 3 | 64% | Draw |
| 1 | 60% | Win |
| 6 | 59% | Loss |
| 2 | 48% | Win |
| 7 | 41% | Win |
| 8 | 40% | Win |
This is because a low block is harder to break down, whereas opponents who come onto Brighton leave space for players such as Kaoru Mitoma and Danny Welbeck to break at speed.
Wolves will be the former.
Gary O’Neil will have taken encouragement from his side’s stubborn performance in a 2-1 defeat to Manchester City, in which a return to a back five helped Wolves defend their own penalty area. A similar approach at the Amex Stadium might just stump Brighton.
Can Jimenez achieve goalscoring feat?
Raul Jimenez’s return to form has been the most heart-warming story in the Premier League this season. It deserves far more attention than it’s getting.
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Back in the summer of 2020, after his 17 Premier League goals helped Wolves to a seventh-place finish, Jimenez was reportedly a transfer target of Man Utd and Juventus.
But in November that year he suffered a serious head injury that would keep him out for nine months, although, in reality, the impact was felt for a lot longer than that. Jimenez never quite recovered from such a traumatic injury - until now.
Jimenez has shown great courage to rediscover his best form and this weekend he has the chance to become the first Fulham player in the Premier League era to score or assist in six consecutive matches.
Only three players have ever achieved this feat aged 33 or older: Gus Poyet, Dennis Bergkamp and Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
At Goodison Park, it won’t be easy. Everton are unbeaten in four and have kept back-to-back Premier League clean sheets.
But if anyone has the power, the form, and the mental fortitude to do it, it's Jimenez.
Will Brentford’s home form prove too much for Ipswich?
After four consecutive draws the consensus was that Ipswich Town were competitive enough to keep their heads held high as they awaited a first Premier League win.
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That isn’t so certain anymore. The 4-1 defeat at West Ham, followed by a 2-0 home defeat to Everton, might have knocked the confidence of Kieran McKenna’s players. As winter looms it’s becoming hard to see where that first win is going to come from.
Ipswich's total of 75 shots, 23 shots on target and 130 touches in the opposition’s box are all the fewest in the Premier League, while their xG of 6.3 is also the lowest.
By contrast, Brentford are scoring for fun at home. No team has netted more home goals than their 11, while Thomas Frank’s side also have the joint-best home record in the competition, with 10 points from their first four matches.
Ipswich’s eight matches without a win could soon be nine.
Will Haaland end his mini goal drought?
For Erling Haaland, three Premier League matches without a goal is practically a disaster.
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His brace against Sparta Prague in midweek ensure there is no dip in confidence to worry about, but the low quality of the Czech opposition means Man City supporters might remain concerned about Haaland’s form.
The problem certainly isn’t Haaland’s shooting. He has converted 70 per cent of his big chances this season, by a distance his best-ever record in England. However, over the last three league fixtures the Norwegian has not been presented with a single big chance.
Crowded out by deep-lying defences and with Phil Foden and Kevin De Bruyne both struggling with injury, Haaland has been starved of service. That won’t last.
Southampton only know one way of playing and Russell Martin’s wide-open football seems certain to create space in the penalty area for Haaland.
What’s more, Haaland loves these kind of matches. He is hoping to become the first player to score in seven consecutive starts against promoted teams since Sergio Aguero in November 2017.
Can Palace avoid longest ever winless start?
Only once before have Palace failed to win any of their first eight Premier League matches and back in 1992/93 they won the ninth, beating Everton 2-0 at Goodison Park.
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Nevertheless, they were relegated in May.
Glasner will not want to be the man associated with Palace’s longest ever winless start to a Premier League season, but it’s a very real possibility: Spurs have won three of their last four matches, recovering from an indifferent start to appear like their old selves again.
Ange Postecoglou will expect victory, although to get it he might need to consider playing two holding midfielders from the start.
It was only after replacing James Maddison with Pape Sarr that Spurs pulled away against West Ham last weekend, following a first half in which Jarrod Bowen dominated the right flank because Destiny Udogie lacked support from midfield.
If Glasner picks Ismaila Sarr, or moves Eberechi Eze over to the right, then perhaps Palace can similarly find joy.
But far more likely is another difficult day for the Eagles.
Can rotation help Villa cope better?
Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Villa’s 2-0 victory over Bologna on Tuesday night was the seamlessness with which four players were rotated into the starting XI.
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Unai Emery now has the squad depth to keep things fresh despite a busy European schedule, although so far this season Villa have struggled to maintain energy levels.
Four days after their first Champions League match at Young Boys, Villa trailed Wolves 1-0 until a comeback that began in the 73rd minute. They looked tired, but not as tired as they did in a sluggish 0-0 draw with Man Utd just after beating Bayern Munich at Villa Park.
Villa made only one change following the Young Boys victory, then three changes after the Bayern win. On Saturday, we can expect Emery to go even further, putting at least four players back into the starting line-up.
Switching out a few key players in midweek was a risk, but one well worth taking considering their recent continental hangovers.
Win on Saturday and Villa will prove they can juggle both competitions.