The Big Question: Can Arsenal prove superiority over Man City?

Football writer Ben Bloom says the situation may have changed, but the fixtures remains one of the Premier League's must-watch matches. 

Over the past couple of seasons, the conundrum facing Manchester City when lining up against Arsenal was relatively simple.

If they could gain the upper hand over Mikel Arteta’s side, the chances were they would win the league. Beat Arsenal and you beat everyone else to the title.

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So, when the two sides meet at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday, it will be to a rather unusual backdrop.

Precariously holding onto a top-four spot, and 12 points off the thunderous pace set by league leaders Liverpool, City’s thoughts of claiming a fifth successive Premier League crown have all-but gone. Defeat could see their recent mini-resurgence after the turmoil of November and December be swiftly exposed as a false dawn.

Given their opponent’s troubles, the match presents the opportunity for Arsenal to confirm their superiority over Pep Guardiola’s side this season, and hint at a firm shift in the power dynamic between the two teams. But, given Liverpool's form, even that may not be enough to secure the Gunners' first title for more than two decades.

The exploits of Arne Slot’s team have downgraded a habitual clash of the titans to a showdown between two members of the chasing pack. Yet there remains as much on the line as ever.

The history

During Guardiola’s reign, Man City’s dominance has set a new standard for the Premier League, with six titles won in seven years and challengers frequently dismissed.

Indeed, across 12 Premier League meetings over six successive seasons from 2017/18 to 2022/23, City did not drop a single point against Arsenal – a club that has still only finished above them once in the past 15 years.

But, even as that relentless winning streak was ongoing, the tides had begun to change.

Post-match positions after recent PL meetings 

In the most recent four meetings prior to this season, the two clubs were never separated by more than a single spot in the standings when they faced one another. Often, it would be the Gunners who were higher in the rankings.

While a lack of endurance would cost them in their ultimate quest to win the league, Arsenal started to match Guardiola’s imperious team, going unbeaten in their last three league encounters and winning last season’s Community Shield on penalties.

After their victory in last season's corresponding fixture at the Emirates, the Gunners are now bidding for consecutive home league wins over City for the first time since 2008/09. They do so with understandably high hopes. 

The impact of injuries 

Unbeaten in their last 13 Premier League matches, Arteta’s side have lost only twice in the league all season and progressed to the UEFA Champions League's last 16 this week after finishing third in the league phase, ahead of 33 other teams.

Guardiola's side, in contrast, only narrowly avoided what would have been a first failure to qualify for the knockout rounds of Europe’s elite competition since 2013.

Courtesy of a comeback win at home to Club Brugge on Wednesday night, sealed with a first European goal for Savinho, City made it through to the Champions League playoffs on goal difference alone. They now face a two-legged tie against the holders, Real Madrid, for a spot in the round of 16.

Savinho's goal v Club Brugge

Much has been made of Guardiola’s failure to freshen up his squad last summer, with the City manager earlier this month conceding "maybe I should have done it".

This season, 39.6 per cent of City’s Premier League minutes have come from players aged 30 or older, the club’s second-highest percentage in a Premier League season behind only the 2016/17 campaign (54 per cent), when they finished third.

While Arsenal have the seventh-youngest average starting XI in the Premier League this season, at 26 years and 66 days. Only four teams have an older average than City’s 27 years 181 days.

"We knew at the beginning of the season we will have a lot of players over 30," said Guardiola.

"We knew sooner or later, we should do it. Step by step we had to change. But five or six months ago, we won the Premier League, four in a row, reached the FA Cup final and quarter-finals of the Champions League. The amount of injuries we had, I didn’t expect it."

No injury has been more consequential than that suffered by Ballon D’Or winner Rodri, who has not played since the last fixture between these two sides in September.

Guardiola has belatedly moved to strengthen during this winter transfer window, spending large sums on forward Omar Marmoush, and the young defensive pair of Abdukodir Khusanov and Vitor Reis.

With Gabriel Jesus and Bukayo Saka both ruled out with injuries, Arteta last week said Arsenal are "actively looking" to bolster their attack.

It was widely reported that the club had an approach for Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins rejected earlier this week.

"We lack goals, we lack people, we lack options in the front line, it’s clear," said Arteta, who refused to be drawn on the subject of Watkins at his pre-match press conference on Friday.

City's season-defining month

Now, as the season starts heading towards its conclusion, is the time that City are notorious for excelling. Guardiola’s side have lost just one of their last 40 Premier League matches played from January until the end of a campaign.

Indeed, this season, they have earned more points than any other Premier League side since Christmas except Newcastle United, while scoring a league-high 18 goals in that time.

This match marks the start of a daunting month, though.

Man City’s February fixtures:
2 Feb v Arsenal (A) PL
8 Feb v Leyton Orient (A) FA Cup
11/12 Feb v Real Madrid (H) UCL
15 Feb v Newcastle (H) PL
18/19 Feb v Real Madrid (A) UCL
23 Feb Liverpool (H) PL
26 Feb Spurs (A) PL

It is a short period that will determine their season across multiple competitions, with the capacity either to revive what had been an ailing campaign or prove the club’s decline beyond doubt.

Should they win at Emirates Stadium on Sunday, they would move within three points of their hosts, continuing their long-lasting superiority over Arsenal.

But Arteta knows how big this chance is to show his team's upward trajectory has now put them above the club that has provided such an important barometer of their ambitions in recent years.

Do that and they can move onto the not insignificant challenge of overhauling Liverpool.