Football writer Alex Keble analyses where this weekend's fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Can Marmoush and Nico dent Liverpool’s title hopes?
- Which emergency No 9 will come out on top at Emirates Stadium?
- Will Palmer rediscover his form?
- Can Spurs get revenge against Ipswich?
- Will Moyes’ mean defence give Man Utd another blank?
- Can Fulham move into European places?
- Which Champions League-chasing team will get back on track?
- Will Brighton struggle against another low block?
- Free-scoring Bournemouth to blitz Wolves?
- Can Leicester stop new away-specialists Brentford?
Can Marmoush and Nico dent Liverpool’s title hopes?
The 3-1 UEFA Champions League defeat to Real Madrid is a result and performance Pep Guardiola will be desperate to forget, which perhaps increases the chances of a tactical rethink for the visit of Liverpool on Sunday.
It’s a match of renewed significance following Liverpool’s 2-2 draw with Aston Villa on Wednesday evening.
Anything but a win for Arne Slot’s side opens the door to Arsenal moving within three points of the leaders after playing their match in hand.
Despite Manchester City’s travails there’s a strong chance of that.
Liverpool have won just one of their last four matches in all competitions, but more significantly they could be particularly vulnerable to the tweaks Guardiola made last weekend.
In the 4-0 victory over Newcastle United, Omar Marmoush’s movement inspired a more direct approach from Guardiola while Nico offered a “mini-Rodri” presence in midfield to re-stabilise the team.
City’s new signings are the yin and yang of Guardiola’s future, one injecting risk and the other order; one stretching the pitch and the other shortening it.
Liverpool will be confrontational, which should afford Man City the opportunity to embrace their newly direct side.
Long balls over Slot’s defence for Marmoush could cause the visitors problems while Nico's calming presence in midfield should be more influential at the Etihad Stadium than it was at the Bernabeu.
Guardiola will sniff an opportunity here to remind everyone that his City project is far from over; that in fact, the rebirth has already begun.
Which emergency No 9 will come out on top at Emirates Stadium?
Every match brings pressure now for Arsenal. Liverpool’s draw in midweek means the Gunners have to capitalise, yet the visit of West Ham United bring ghosts from the past.
They won this exact fixture 2-0 last season in a match defined by Arsenal profligacy; by 30 shots, 2.77 Expected Goals (xG) and no goals.
The memory may still haunt them, especially in light of the attacking injuries that leave Mikel Arteta without a recognised striker.
But this time Arsenal aren’t the only team struggling to find a No 9.
Evan Ferguson was impressive off the bench last weekend but West Ham still drew a blank in defeat to Brentford, making it four matches without a win since Graham Potter’s 3-2 victory over Fulham on his debut.
Ferguson should start. Arsenal’s substitute No 9 is more of an unknown.
Mikel Merino’s aerial ability was crucial against Leicester City, although only 8.5 per cent of West Ham’s goals conceded this season have come from a cross (4/47), the second-lowest share in the division.
Will Arteta trust Merino in the role for a full 90 minutes, or give Raheem Sterling another chance?
Arsenal’s title challenge might just depend on Arteta getting that pick right.
Will Palmer rediscover his form?
There was plenty about Villa’s 2-2 draw with Liverpool for Unai Emery to enjoy, but all of it in attack.
Defensive injuries continue to haunt Villa’s season and appear to be costing them dearly in the race for Champions League football; they’ve kept only three Premier League clean sheets all season.
On Wednesday night, Liverpool’s opener was a gift from young right-back Andres Garcia.
They went on to amass an xG of 2.51, carving open a makeshift Villa back line that becomes even weaker on Saturday when Axel Disasi is ineligible to play his parent club.
Here is a golden opportunity for Chelsea, and in particular Cole Palmer, to get back to scoring ways.
Chelsea have picked up only nine points from their last nine Premier League fixtures, scoring 10 goals and none by recognised strikers. It’s a blip they cannot allow to go on for much longer.
Palmer has dipped considerably in this period, too. He looks a shadow of himself, struggling to impact matches as he used to.
After scoring or assisting 17 goals in Chelsea’s first 16 Premier League matches, Palmer has just three goal involvements to his name across the last nine.
Chelsea need him now more than ever.
They have scored only two goals in their last five Premier League away matches and failed to get a single shot on target at Brighton & Hove Albion last weekend, in what Enzo Maresca described as Chelsea’s “worst performance of the season”.
Facing such a makeshift Villa defence – Tyrone Mings will likely get a brand new centre-back partner, either a full-back or central midfielder – offers the chance for Chelsea and Palmer to set that right.
Can Spurs get revenge against Ipswich?
There had been a few worrying signs, but when Ipswich Town visited Tottenham Hotspur in early November, Spurs were broadly on track: 16 points from 10 matches and just three points off third suggested big things to come for Ange Postecoglou’s side.
Their 2-1 defeat to the Tractor Boys was a seismic moment from which Spurs never really recovered. The return fixture this Saturday is a chance to book-end their troubles; to put an injury-hit period behind them and begin their ascent again.
The 1-0 victory against Manchester United was a faint signal, the returning James Maddison and Guglielmo Vicario inspirational as Spurs played in a high-octane style that has been missing for so long.
They won possession eight times in the final third, their fourth-best figure of the campaign and most since their last home win on 3 November against Villa, prior to beating Man Utd.
But with the greatest of respect, beating Man Utd in their current malaise isn’t – on its own – proof of revival.
Ipswich will be more assertive and confrontational in their approach. How Postecoglou's side respond will go some way to telling us if the real Spurs is back.
Will Moyes’ mean defence give Man Utd another blank?
Goals have been hard to come by of late for Man Utd. A visit to Goodison Park is hardly the easiest place to get back on track.
Man Utd have failed to score in 10 different Premier League matches this season, while only Southampton (7.9 per cent) have a lower shot conversion rate than United’s 8.4 per cent, which is their lowest in a single campaign since 2004/05 (8.2 per cent).
Worse, they’ve only scored two goals in their last four Premier League matches and Amad – whose eight goals and assists make up 50 per cent of the 16 league goals scored under Ruben Amorim – is out for the season.
Meanwhile David Moyes’ side have won four of their last five Premier League matches (more than they had in their first 20), two of which were to nil.
He will back his organised defence to hold firm against an injury-hit Man Utd attack and, in front of a lively home crowd, create yet more nervous instability in the United ranks.
After all, he has history. Moyes has won his last two Premier League home meetings against his former side, beating United 1-0 and 2-0 with West Ham in May and December 2023.
Can Fulham move into European places?
After hovering in mid-table through winter Fulham can move up to seventh, temporarily at least, if they beat Crystal Palace.
The last time Fulham were seventh, incidentally, was after beating Palace 2-0 on 9 November, and having bobbed along in the two months since, Marco Silva’s side have the chance to pop up again in the European spots.
They could make it stick this time.
Three wins from the last four, including victories against Newcastle and Nottingham Forest, indicate that Fulham have every right to put themselves in the same bracket as their rivals for UEFA Europa League or even Champions League qualification.
This is their moment. Each of Fulham’s next four Premier League matches are against sides currently 10th or lower in the table.
Keep the sequence going and Silva can take the Cottagers back into Europe for the first time since 2011/12.
Fulham's next four fixtures
Which Champions League-chasing team will get back on track?
Looking at the rise of AFC Bournemouth and Fulham, the experience at Man City, and the talent at Chelsea, it would be reasonable for Newcastle and Nottingham Forest players to take to the field on Sunday assuming only one of them will get Champions League football.
Given how tight it is at the top the head-to-heads will ultimately prove decisive – and yet the Sunday undercard appears to have more riding on it than that.
Both teams could do with a big win to get back on track.
Newcastle have lost three of their last four in the league, more than in their previous 12 combined, while Forest have lost each of their last two away matches after winning all four before that.
This is not the time to slow down or falter. And yet by full-time at St James' Park, one of these two will have.
Will Brighton struggle against another low block?
The 3-0 win over Chelsea was a superb performance and result for Brighton but it doesn’t necessarily tell us anything about how they will cope at bottom club Southampton.
That might sound strange, but Brighton are a peculiar club. Six of their nine Premier League wins this season have been against sides starting the day in the top half of the table.
They have a win rate of 46 per cent against teams in the top 10 and just 25 per cent against teams in the bottom 10.
The reason for this is that Brighton struggle to break teams down when allowed (or forced) to dominate possession, whereas they are at their best under Fabian Hurzeler in stretched matches when there is space to break into.
Rank all of their Premier League matches by Brighton’s possession share, and the pattern is stark: 12 points from their highest-possession 13 matches (0.9 per match) and 25 points from their lowest-possession 12 matches (2.1 per match).
Unsurprisingly, they drew 1-1 with Southampton at Amex Stadium back in November.
Hurzeler will hope that Kaoru Mitoma's return to form – he has five goal involvements in his last six matches in all competitions, more than in his previous 28 combined – can make the difference this time.
Free-scoring Bournemouth to blitz Wolves?
Bournemouth have already announced themselves as serious Champions League contenders with a victory at Southampton that moved them up to fifth in the table, but they could go one better this weekend.
Andoni Iraola’s side can go fourth if they beat Wolverhampton Wanderers. They might do so handsomely.
Wolves leak goals. Vitor Pereira’s side have conceded 54 goals from an xG of 41.6, meaning they ‘should’ have conceded 12.4 fewer.
Nobody in the division has a bigger difference between xG and actual goals than that.
In direct contrast Bournemouth have one of the league’s best attacks.
Only Liverpool and Man City have had more shots and shots on target this season than the Cherries (403 shots, 147 on target), suggesting they will create the kind of chances that Wolves are conceding at an alarming rate.
Indeed Iraola’s side also rank third in the Premier League for chances created (306) and expected goals (46.8). An emphatic win, and a rise up to fourth, is the most likely outcome.
Can Leicester stop new away-specialists Brentford?
Leicester have lost each of their last five home matches (by an aggregate score of 11-0) and have never lost six in a row on home soil in their league history.
They are pretty unlucky that Brentford, for so much of the season the worst away performers in the division, have just won three on the bounce away from the Gtech Community Stadium.
But Leicester simply have to win.
After this weekend Man Utd and Newcastle are their only home league matches before May, and by that point – by the time they welcome Southampton and Ipswich – it could be too late.
