Ahead of the 2023/24 Premier League season, Alex Keble takes an in-depth look at each of the 20 clubs.
Nottingham Forest
Typically the second season is harder than the first. The promoted club’s optimism receding once the rest of the division works out their flaws.
But there was nothing typical about how Nottingham Forest secured Premier League safety, and indeed by the time they sealed their status with a 1-0 home win against Arsenal the court of public opinion had already relegated Forest at least three times.
Nottingham Forest signed an unprecedented 30 players. They won 79 per cent of their points at home. They changed formation and playing style twice, both times shortly after Steve Cooper came close to being relieved of his duties only to be given an unlikely show of faith and patience.
Naturally, Forest fans will ignore more negative predictions made this month. Cooper has consistently defied expectations and wildly overachieved. Why doubt him now?
Performance last season
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 |
Bournemouth
BOU
|
38 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
38 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 |
Everton
EVE
|
38 | -23 | 36 |
| Competition | Performance |
|---|---|
| FA Cup | Third round |
| EFL Cup | Semi-finals |
PL performance last five seasons
| 18/19 | 19/20 | 20/21 | 21/22 | 22/23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champ 9th | Champ 7th | Champ 17th | Champ 4th | 16th |
How to improve on 2022/23
Consistency is the key. After reportedly spending almost £200million on 30 players last season Forest have been more modest this summer and as a consequence Cooper will hope he finds his best team and formation far quicker.
Perhaps that alone will solve the conundrum of winning points on the road. Forest collected the fewest in the division, winning just once, against relegated Southampton, whereas they ranked 10th for total home points, with 30.
To illustrate the absurdity of that gap, had Cooper’s side replicated their home form on their travels they would have finished seventh and qualified for the UEFA Europa Conference League.
And speaking of consistency, Forest certainly found it in their final formation, a 3-4-2-1 that won them 11 points from the final six matches. Keeping this system and building upon it is surely the way forward.
Key transfers
Forest’s biggest signing to date is Anthony Elanga, whom supporters will be hoping is not seen as a replacement for Brennan Johnson, a player garnering attention from several Premier League clubs.
Chris Wood will provide competition for Taiwo Awoniyi while Ola Aina, a versatile full-back signed from Torino, bolsters Cooper’s options in several positions.
It has otherwise been a slow summer so far, as indicated by Matt Turner’s rumoured arrival from Arsenal despite ongoing interest in Dean Henderson. Forest are reportedly hoping to add four more players.
Tactics
Cooper’s Forest were never a possession-centric team in the Championship but nevertheless they suffered a steep learning curve last season, when the manager’s tactics proved too adventurous in a difficult start to Premier League life.
A change to a very defensive set-up, with a deep line of engagement and quick long-ball counters, followed Cooper’s first flirtation with dismissal, and then for the final nine matches Cooper went even further into the new style, switching to a 3-4-2-1 formation.
After the back five absorb pressure, Danilo and Morgan Gibbs-White flank Awoniyi to create a simple, three-pronged attack on the break.
Reasons to cheer
The stability of this summer is something to be celebrated, and with an excellent array of attackers – Danilo, Gibbs-White and Johnson – there is expectation that Forest can improve this season.
Forest are unlikely to achieve much more than Premier League safety, but there is reason to believe the bottom end of the table is weaker than it was in 2022/23, with Forest holding an advantage over Luton Town and Sheffield United in particular.
Reasons to fear
Despite Cooper signing a three-year contract last autumn there is always the worry that a poor patch of form will lead to his dismissal.
Aside from that Nott'm Forest had one of the worst defensive records last season.
Opening six matches
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Concerns about Forest’s very difficult start to the season are tempered by the fact their home fixtures are winnable. In the first six matches they travel to Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea, and Manchester City, but they can still enjoy a decent start to the campaign as long as they beat Sheff Utd and Burnley in their opening two at the City Ground.
Predicted XI v Arsenal
3-4-2-1: Turner; Worrall, Boly, McKenna; Aurier, Yates, Mangala, Aina; Danilo, Gibbs-White; Awoniyi