Alex Keble analyses where the weekend's matches could be won and lost, including:
- Fulham trip timely for struggling Man Utd
- Pochettino returns to former club Spurs
- Kompany and Hodgson desperate for rare win
- Brighton haunted by last season's Everton loss
- Stern Newcastle challenge awaits Arsenal
Turnovers & full-back woes at Craven Cottage
Manchester United’s 3-0 defeat to Newcastle United in the EFL Cup on Wednesday has done nothing to quell the sense of unease surrounding a manager who is overseeing the club’s worst-ever start to a Premier League campaign.
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Five defeats from 10 matches has made this United’s poorest start to a season since 1986/87 and their goal difference of -5 is their worst since 1972/73.
If that wasn’t bad enough, the performances of Erik ten Hag’s side appear to be getting worse with each passing week.
See: Ten Hag: I'm a fighter and see this as a challenge
A trip to Fulham could be just what the doctor ordered. Marco Silva’s team have made a mixed start to the campaign and, having only beaten promoted sides at home so far, there are enough cracks in their set-up to suggest Man Utd can win their third away Premier League match on the trot.
Fulham have been a little careless in their own half, suffering more high turnovers, with 111, than any other team bar Burnley (112), which is good news for the visitors, considering Ten Hag’s tactical focus on pressing high this season - Man Utd have made the most high turnovers in the Premier League in 2023/24, with 112.
The hosts’ last "Big Six" match at Craven Cottage, a 2-0 defeat to Chelsea in October, was littered with misplaced passes at the back.
Armando Broja missed an open goal following a high turnover before scoring the Blues' second from a very similar situation.
Perhaps, for once, Ten Hag’s strategy of pressing high in the hope of releasing Man Utd’s quick forwards will pay dividends.
But there is another tactical point of interest at the other end of the pitch. United are looking particularly vulnerable in the full-back areas, with Sergio Reguilon and Diogo Dalot struggling in midweek against Newcastle following a difficult day against Manchester City.
Opta’s "zones of control" map shows just how problematic those full-back positions have become.
Fulham’s attacking plan focuses almost exclusively on getting the ball out to Willian or Harry Wilson, who then look to drive at the opposition full-back. They will anticipate winning their one-on-ones against Reguilon and Dalot, creating crossing opportunities for Raul Jimenez to score.
Both managers, then, will believe they have the upper hand.
Pochettino return to Spurs should be fun
Tottenham Hotspur, top of the league and flying, are looking to win their fifth consecutive Premier League match for the first time since December 2018 – when Mauricio Pochettino was in the dugout, as he will be on Monday night.
Nobody has taken charge of more Premier League matches for Spurs than Pochettino, with 202, and indeed his five-and-a-half years at the club – which encapsulated a second-placed finish in 2015/16 and a UEFA Champions League final in 2019 - were the making of modern Spurs.
It remains to be seen what kind of reception he will receive following his defection to one of Spurs’ main rivals.
No matter how forgiving supporters are on the night, they would cherish a victory over their old manager that would maintain Spurs’ position at the top of the league and keep Chelsea firmly in the bottom half.
It should be a riotous encounter. Pochettino’s urgent attacking football, well known to Spurs fans, is precisely the style that could hurt the hosts, who are committed to an expressive stance no matter the opposition.
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Spurs, with 2,127, and Chelsea (2,072) both rank in the Premier League top four for total touches in the opposition attacking third, while both clubs are in the top three for high turnovers (Spurs with 109 and Chelsea on 104) and in the top five for direct attacks (Chelsea with 26 and Spurs on 24).
Two frantic, high-energy and forward-thinking clubs smashing headfirst into each other will surely produce one of the matches of the season, similar stylistically to Chelsea’s 1-1 draw with Liverpool on the opening weekend.
It should be chaotic and highly entertaining for the neutral, but hugely anxious for Spurs fans. Defeat to a Pochettino team doesn’t bare thinking about.
Kompany & Hodgson desperate for a rare win
It probably isn’t the most attractive-looking fixture to neutrals but there is no more important Premier League match this weekend than Burnley versus Crystal Palace.
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Burnley’s defeat to AFC Bournemouth has left them mired in the bottom three and after losing all of their opening five home matches this season, the Clarets could become the first team in English top-flight history to lose their first six such contests.
Only Newport County in 1970/71 in the fourth tier and Watford in 1990/91 in the second tier have done that before.
It is the kind of record that could make heads drop and hearts sink at Turf Moor.
Palace are in nowhere near as bad a position, but they have lost their last two Premier League matches – as many as in their previous 11 – and with injuries piling up their performances appear to be slipping.
Palace have won five points from their last six matches and have scored just two goals in that time. With the absences of Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise keenly felt, all of a sudden this looks like the Roy Hodgson Palace of old.
That faltering form makes this a big opportunity for Burnley, and yet the hosts appear to hold the strategic advantage.
Throughout the campaign so far, Burnley’s expansive possession game has seen them caught too readily on the break. Palace, meanwhile, sit fourth in the Premier League for total number of successful take-ons, with 108.
Hodgson preaches quick breaks via speedy dribblers, which is precisely the kind of game plan that could tear through this open Burnley defence.
In the 2-1 defeat to Bournemouth, both Burnley concessions were cheap giveaways of the ball. Palace have the players to punish Vincent Kompany’s side in a similar way on Saturday.
Ghost of 5-1 defeat hangs over De Zerbi
Brighton & Hove Albion have not won any of their last four Premier League encounters (the longest run without a victory since the first five matches of Roberto De Zerbi’s reign in October last season) and have won just one of their last seven in all competitions.
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For the first time since take-off, De Zerbi’s Brighton are under a little bit of pressure, which is why a trip to Goodison Park is perhaps the last thing they would have wanted.
Everton are on the up. They have won five of their last seven matches in all competitions, including a 3-0 EFL Cup victory over Burnley in midweek, and finally look like a proper Sean Dyche team now that Dominic Calvert-Lewin is leading the line.
Form and momentum count for a lot in Premier League fixtures, but an even more worrying factor for Brighton is the recent memory of their 5-1 home defeat to Everton in May.
To an extent, that match was a complete anomaly: Everton’s 2.3xG was actually lower than Brighton’s 3.2. But the way Everton simply sat back, refused to engage and then hit Brighton on the break did provide the template that so many others have since followed.
All five Everton goals were scored on the counter, with Calvert-Lewin the fulcrum as Alex Iwobi and Dwight McNeil galloped beyond the Brighton backline.
The most recent team to do just that – sit back and counter – was Aston Villa, who beat Brighton 6-1 at the end of September in a contest eerily similar to the dramatic collapse against Everton in May.
However, Brighton fans will take some comfort from the fact that all of Everton’s last seven home wins have been to nil, while Brighton have both scored and conceded in each of their last 14 Premier League matches.
There is certainly no need to panic yet after a tough run of fixtures for Brighton, but failure to get three points at Goodison Park could see them fall as many as nine points off the top four – and turn another strong start into a mediocre one.
Arsenal’s biggest away challenge to date
It was only a half-changed Arsenal first XI that fell to a despondent and dispiriting 3-1 defeat to West Ham United in the EFL Cup on Wednesday. Meanwhile, at the same time in Manchester, Newcastle were rampant in a 3-0 win at Old Trafford.
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Will contrasting cup form tip the balance on Saturday evening? Perhaps not. Last season Arsenal were beaten 3-1 by Brighton in the EFL Cup third round in November, but continued their league form as if it had never happened, rotating first-team players back in to beat Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-0 three days later.
Nevertheless, those midweek matches add an interesting layer to what is already Arsenal’s most difficult away trip of the season so far. The Gunners, although unbeaten after 10 matches, have only won against Palace, Everton and Bournemouth on the road.
Their other result was a 2-2 draw at Chelsea, in which they went 2-0 down to a side whose only home victory in the Premier League this season came against Luton Town. In other words, Arsenal haven’t passed any difficult tests away from Emirates Stadium thus far.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Man City
MCI
|
38 | +62 | 91 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
38 | +62 | 89 |
| 3 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
38 | +45 | 82 |
| 4 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
38 | +15 | 68 |
| 5 |
Spurs
TOT
|
38 | +13 | 66 |
| 6 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
38 | +14 | 63 |
And Newcastle is most definitely a difficult test. They are unbeaten in their last six league matches, scoring at least twice in each of the last five contests, and are the Premier League’s joint-leading goalscorers, with 26.
If Arsenal can win at St James' Park, they will answer any remaining doubts about whether their strong start in 2023/24 is indicative of another serious title challenge. Lose, and they could fall all the way down to fifth, five points off the top – and just four ahead of Newcastle.
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