Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 22.
Player analysis - Ollie Watkins
With nine goals and eight assists, Aston Villa’s Watkins is enjoying a terrific campaign that promises to be his most productive yet as a Premier League player.
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In recent weeks though, the 28-year-old has found it more of a struggle to find the back of the net.
Scoring only one goal in his last seven top-flight starts and drawing blanks in his last four outings, Watkins approaches Tuesday evening's home meeting with Newcastle United amid an unexpected mini-goal drought.
Less space to shine
Watkins’ explosive pace and clever movement helps him plunder goals against any type of opponent, but of late he has found himself struggling to make headway against lower, more defensive blocks.
Everton, Burnley and Sheffield United all sat off, allowing Villa to monopolise possession, and this simultaneously denied Watkins space to exploit in behind, or down the side of central defenders.
Crowding him out, slowing down their attacks, Watkins has had very few clear sights of goal.
According to Opta’s Expected Goals (xG) metric, his best chance in this period arrived late on in the 3-2 win against Burnley, when he looped a header over the bar from an Alex Moreno cross.
It was not a well-executed header, but with an xG of 0.13, it was far from an easy opportunity.
In this goalless spell, five of Watkins’ 11 shots have been blocked, which is another indicator of how limited he was in terms of enjoying room around the box.
None of his three shots on target would be regarded as "bad misses" either, with defenders putting him under extreme pressure on each occasion.
A heavy touch inside the area forced this attempt against Everton (below) to be from an acute angle.
There was precious little room for Watkins to find the corner from this effort (below) at home to Sheff Utd.
And although this chance against Burnley looks easy on the still image (below), Watkins did extremely well to control a high ball on the volley.
The save produced by James Trafford was also outstanding.
There have been no sitters missed, so ahead of facing Newcastle, his confidence should not be adversely affected.
Slower possession
The success achieved by Unai Emery’s side this season has led to greater respect being shown to them by opposing head coaches.
Consequently, Villa, who are often at the best from counters and transitions, are finding themselves dominating possession on a more frequent basis.
They have adjusted well to this change, but slower bouts of patient possession do not necessarily play into the strengths of Watkins.
In matches where Watkins has failed to score this season, Villa averaged around six per cent more of the ball.
Watkins scores/Villa possession comparison
| Ave. Villa possession | |
|---|---|
| Watkins scores | 51.40% |
| Watkins fails to score | 57.09% |
We know he thrives on running onto the ball from quickly constructed attacks, so this change of style may take time for the him to fully adjust to.
Having a larger share of the ball is not the sole reason behind Watkins’ run of four matches without a goal, but the numbers below do show it is clear they made significantly more passes during that spell.
Villa passing comparison
| First 17 matches | Last four matches | |
|---|---|---|
| Succ. passes/90 | 398.80 | 451.50 |
| Succ. passes into final third/90 | 92.70 | 109 |
Forcing the initiative is not something Villa are accustomed to doing on a regular basis, but they must get used to if they continue to operate at the top end of the Premier League table.
The next step in their development is to make this style of play work for their leading scorer, who has seen the quality of his chances drop in recent weeks.
With too much of the passing lateral and safe, instead of being vertical and incisive, his xG per 90 has dipped from 0.52 to 0.18.
First 17 Villa matches
| Watkins | Per 90 | |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots (inc. blocks) | 50 | 3.02 |
| Shots on target | 21 | 1.27 |
| Touches in the opp. box | 111 | 6.71 |
| Expected Goals | 8.65 | 0.52 |
Last four Villa matches
| Watkins | Per 90 | |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots (inc. blocks) | 11 | 2.75 |
| Shots on target | 3 | 0.75 |
| Touches in the opp. box | 26 | 6.50 |
| Expected Goals | 0.73 | 0.18 |
On the plus side, Newcastle will not be as cautious on their visit to Villa Park, so Watkins may enjoy a little more space to run into.
The striker is talented enough to thrive no matter what his team's tactical approach is, but there is a sense he is acclimatising to a more cautious mindset from Villa’s opponents.
Also in this series
Part 1: Why Arsenal are leading the way for set-piece innovation
Part 3: How Toney transforms Brentford at both ends of the pitch