Who are the best forwards to own in FPL with Isak a doubt?

The Scout delves into the data to pinpoint the best forwards to own alongside Erling Haaland (£15.2m) in 2024/25 Fantasy Premier League, with the Manchester City star looking a MUST-HAVE after scoring nine goals across his first four matches, and with Alexander Isak (£8.4m) also a doubt.

While Haaland is filling a forward slot in over 69 per cent of squads, there are a number of other issues for managers to contend with up front ahead of Saturday’s 11:00 BST deadline.
 
Newcastle United star Isak and Brighton & Hove Albion’s Joao Pedro (£5.7m) are among the three most-owned forwards, found in 36 and 30 per cent of squads respectively. Not only are both currently injury doubts for Gameweek 5, but they each face tough runs of opponents from Gameweek 6. 

On Friday, Newcastle head coach Eddie Howe provided an update on Isak ahead of Saturday's trip to Fulham: "The ball grazed his eye, we thought that was the main reason for him coming off the pitch. Then we found he had a knock on his foot. We will find out more today and make a decision on him."

Meanwhile, Brighton head coach Fabian Hurzeler gave this update on Joao Pedro's fitness before the Seagulls' home match against Nottingham Forest on Sunday: "He will train today with the team, then we have to see how it's going - if he can train fully, if he can do all the movements. Of course we won't take any risk but he will be part of the training today."

From Gameweek 6, all but one of both Newcastle and Brighton's subsequent five matches score three or more in the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR).

Brentford’s Yoane Wissa (£6.1m) was ruled out for two months earlier this week, while Fulham’s Rodrigo Muniz (£6.0m) appears to have lost his starting role after dropping to the bench last time out.

Watkins the top target

Ollie Watkins (£8.9m) has emerged as the No 1 target after he returned to form with two goals against Everton last weekend.

The Aston Villa forward is the most-bought player in the Gameweek, collecting 304,000+ transfers in on the back of his 13-point haul. 

An assist in Villa’s win over Swiss side Young Boys in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday evening continued Watkins’ form, with head coach Unai Emery allaying any injury fears by confirming the striker is okay after being replaced early in the second half.

See: Latest Premier League injuries

Watkins’ improved pitch time in the 3-2 win Everton indicates he had stepped up his match sharpness over the recent international break.

Watkins' second goal v Everton

The forward’s late return to pre-season training due to his international commitments over the summer meant Watkins had been replaced by Jhon Duran (£6.0m) around the hour-mark in each of Villa’s first three league matches of 2023/24. 

However, it was noticeable that when Duran emerged from the bench against Everton, Watkins remained on the pitch and wasn’t subbed off until the 83rd minute.

This not only suggests his domestic pitch time has improved, it also shows that Emery is clearly open to the tactic of fielding both forwards at the same time. 

Is Watkins more likely to score or get assists this season?

By assessing Watkins’ underlying numbers against the first four Gameweeks of last season, two main points emerge – his potential for goals has improved while his assist prospects have dropped.  

Although his shots in the box are near-identical – from nine up to 10 this season – the Villa forward has been involved in far more big chances, or situations where the player is expected to score. 

Watkins’ eight big chances is TWICE his total at this point last season and ranks joint-top with Haaland among all players.

This has helped Watkins improve his goal conversion rate – he has converted a very sustainable 20 per cent of his shots this season, whereas he had yet to find the net at this point in 2023/24.

That upturn in goal threat has come at a cost in terms of creativity, though. 

His eight key passes from 2023/24 has been HALVED, with Watkins’ average of one key pass per match – indicating his potential for assists has dropped.

Watkins' first four matches 23/24 v 24/25

Villa’s upcoming schedule certainly gives Watkins every chance to build on his Gameweek 4 performance.

According to the FDR, three of their next five matches score just two. That includes a home meeting with Wolverhampton Wanderers and a visit to promoted Ipswich Town over Gameweeks 5-6. 

Villa's next five matches

*1= easiest, 5= hardest

Which other forwards are in good form and have great fixtures?

The FDR also highlights kind runs of opponents for Everton, Ipswich, Leicester City and Nottingham Forest – indeed, as many as five of each club’s next six matches score only two.

By combining the schedules with underlying statistics, Nott’m Forest’s Chris Wood (£6.1m) could be the best budget forward to own in the upcoming period.

The New Zealand international's five big chances rank behind only Haaland and Watkins, while he has mirrored the latter for both shots in the box and goal conversion. 

Wood’s shooting accuracy particularly catches the eye. His seven shots on target rank second only to Haaland’s 14 and are particularly impressive when compared with the three other forwards who also have favourable fixtures. 

Indeed, Wood’s seven shots on target matches the COMBINED total of Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.9m), Ipswich’s Liam Delap (£5.5m) and Leicester’s Jamie Vardy (£5.7m).

Vardy and Calvert-Lewin are both among the four most-bought forwards in Gameweek 5 after scoring their second goals of 2024/25 last weekend. They have earned more than 188,000 and 126,000 transfers in respectively ahead of their match-up at King Power Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

While Vardy’s backers will be confident he can exploit an Everton side who have conceded a league-high 18 big chances, it’s worth noting he has had only THREE shots (all of which were big chances) over four matches.

Elsewhere, Arsenal star Kai Havertz (£8.1m) and AFC Bournemouth’s Evanilson (£5.9m) are also included in the analysis, as they both have very kind fixtures from Gameweek 6.

Obviously you wouldn’t want to invest in either player in Gameweek 5 – Havertz visits Man City while Evanilson also has a tough trip to Liverpool.

But in Gameweeks 6-7, Havertz and Evanilson both face promoted sides Leicester and Southampton. 

There are a number of similarities with Havertz and Watkins – the pair are identical for shots and shots on target.

Evanilson’s numbers also offer encouragement given he’s played fewer minutes than any player in the analysis. For example, the Brazilian has matched Calvert-Lewin’s six shots in the box despite playing over 110 minutes fewer than the Everton star.

Goal threat, GW1-4

So, who are the best forwards to own alongside Haaland?

Watkins has the form and fixtures to reward immediate investment, with the Villa star offering a strong armband option in Gameweek 5 – while Haaland faces Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium, Watkins is at home to Wolves. 

Wood’s numbers indicate he could be the best budget pick all the way until Gameweek 11, when Nott’m Forest’s schedule finally turns tougher.

The imminent turn in fixtures for both Arsenal and Bournemouth has to be factored in here, too, as Gameweek 6 is expected to be a popular time to Wildcard, with many managers planning to triple-up on the Gunners. 

While Havertz could be a great long-term pick, Evanilson is more of a short-term budget option who could have significant upside in Gameweeks 6-7.