Erling Haaland’s (£15.2m) home encounter with title rivals Arsenal hands managers in Fantasy Premier League the ultimate “form versus fixture” quandary when picking their captain in Gameweek 5.
Manchester City’s talisman has delivered double-figure hauls in three successive outings, scoring nine goals in four matches to top the player standings on 54 points.
The Norwegian and the Gunners’ Bukayo Saka (£10.0m) are the only players to produce attacking returns (a goal or an assist) in each of the first four Gameweeks of 2024/25 Fantasy.
Right now, Haaland seems to be at the peak of his powers since arriving at the Etihad Stadium in 2022/23 and there would be no real surprise if he continues his goal run on Sunday afternoon.
Tough fixture against Arsenal's tight defence
The main bone of contention here is Haaland’s recent record against Arsenal.
In his debut 2022/23 campaign, the Norwegian scored in both his meetings with Mikel Arteta's side, amassing 20 points.
Last season, however, was a different story altogether as Haaland blanked in both contests.
The scorelines over those matches certainly highlight Arsenal's improved defensive displays against Pep Guardiola's men.
In 2022/23, Man City achieved 3-1 and 4-1 victories. But in 2023/24, Arsenal kept a clean sheet on both occasions, winning 1-0 at home and earning a goalless draw at the Etihad Stadium.
Haaland's declining Fantasy output v Arsenal
| Match | G | A | Pts |
| Arsenal (A), 22/23 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal (H), 22/23 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| Arsenal (A), 23/24 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Arsenal (H), 23/24 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
It's helpful to look at the underlying statistics. This is the data that a lot of FPL managers base their decisions on, including Expected Goals, the numbers for a players' shots and passes, plus many more. These stats help to illustrate why Haaland struggled when playing Arsenal last season.
He was limited to just one big chance - a situation where the player is expected to score. By contrast, he had five such opportunities in 2022/23. Furthermore, his shots in the box dropped by over HALF, from nine to four.
Haaland's declining attacking threat v Arsenal
| Match | Shots in box | Big chances | Key passes |
| Arsenal (A), 22/23 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal (H), 22/23 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Arsenal (A), 23/24 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Arsenal (H), 23/24 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Which big-hitters have a strong goal threat AND a favourable fixture?
Assessing the underlying statistics can help managers get a better idea of the other big-name stars who are standout captain picks.
While the numbers only serve to highlight Haaland's peerless goal threat, they also highlight Mohamed Salah (£12.7m) and Ollie Watkins (£8.9m) as standout alternatives.
Liverpool’s Egyptian ranks behind only Haaland for shots, shots in the box and shots on target, an indication of his strong goal threat. Similarly, Watkins has matched Haaland's eight big chances.
Salah and Watkins also have very kind home matches in Gameweek 5, against AFC Bournemouth and Wolverhampton Wanderers respectively.
Tottenham Hotspur's Son Heung-min (£10.0m) and Chelsea star Cole Palmer (£10.6m) also have favourable match-ups - Son at home to Brentford, while Palmer and the Blues visit West Ham United.
However, their numbers are a lot less convincing. Son has scored twice from only six shots, while just two of Palmer’s nine shots have come from inside the box.
Goal threat in GW1-4
| Player | Shots | Shots in box | Big chances | Shots on target |
| Haaland | 20 | 18 | 8 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salah | 13 | 12 | 5 | 8 |
| Watkins | 10 | 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Son | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Palmer | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
What does the opponents' defensive data tell us?
By assessing the underlying data, managers can pinpoint the defences who offer their opponents the best chance of producing goals and assists.
Wolves' numbers certainly lift the appeal of Watkins, with his visitors conceding 11 goals - over TWICE the number of Salah's opponents Bournemouth. When it comes to conceding shots and big chances, there's not much to separate those two defences.
Arsenal's statistics again help to highlight their resilience, with their six big chances conceded the second-best record in the league.
Defensive data in GW1-4
| Opp. | Goals conceded | Shots in box conceded | Big chances conceded |
| Wolves | 11 | 43 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Bournemouth | 5 | 39 | 11 |
| Arsenal | 1 | 39 | 6 |
So, who is the best captain?
Haaland's huge 69 per cent ownership means, in all likelihood, he will be the most-picked captain for Gameweek 5.
Yet there's no doubt that Arsenal's impressive defensive displays against City last season adds an element of risk to handing the Norwegian the armband.
The Gunners' resilience is just about enough to wrestle Haaland out of the armband conversation for once, with Salah edging Watkins out due to his penalty duties and midfielder classification, which earns him five points for each goal scored, compared with four for Watkins and other forwards.
