This is already Chris Wood's most prolific Premier League season, and we're only at Matchweek 24. Ali Tweedale of Opta Analyst looks at what's working so well for Nottingham Forest and their striker.
Chris Wood is plenty of things, but one thing he most certainly isn’t is quick.
There are 227 players who, at some point this season, have reached a higher top speed than him in a Premier League match, and 304 who haven’t. That puts Wood somewhere in the middle for pace.
The New Zealand international isn’t exactly slow, then. But watching Wood, a 6ft 3ins target man who often appears to lumber around the final third, he isn’t an obvious fit for a counter-attacking side.
And that is exactly what Nottingham Forest are; and a hugely effective one at that. They are third in the Premier League, in with a slim chance – one barely comprehensible before the start of the season – of winning the title.
Nuno Espirito Santo has done a sensational job, with a side who defend resolutely for long periods and hit their opponents quickly and efficiently in transition.
Forest have had a lower share of possession (39.5 per cent) than any other team in the Premier League this season and they have the highest PPDA (passes per defensive action) rate, too, allowing their opponents 16 passes for every defensive action they make. This shows they are the division's most passive team without the ball.
When Forest do attack, though, they move faster upfield than every other team, moving at 2.1 metres per second on average. Their sequences with the ball contain the fewest passes on average (2.8) of all Premier League teams, as they prioritise getting the ball into dangerous areas as quickly and directly as possible. They are furthest towards the 'fast and direct' end of the scale on our team-style comparison chart.
It would make sense if Forest had a speed merchant up front, then; someone who could carry the ball up the pitch at pace and dribble at defenders. The only teams who have had more shots from fast breaks this season than Forest's 32 are Liverpool and Chelsea, with 45 and 36 respectively.
Both of those clubs play with a fast, dynamic centre-forward who can carry at pace and provide a threat in behind.
Those players – Luis Diaz (eight) and Nicolas Jackson (nine) – have had the most shots from fast-break situations for their teams, also ranking joint-third and joint-seventh overall in the Premier League, respectively. As we'll come to later, Wood is nowhere near as dangerous from these situations.
And yet Wood has netted more Premier League goals this season (17) than either of those players, and more than any player except for Mohamed Salah (21) and Erling Haaland (19). With his first goal in the 7-0 demolition of Brighton & Hove Albion last time out, Wood made 2024/25 his most prolific top-flight campaign, and then he went on to complete a hat-trick.
Watch: Wood's hat-trick goal v Brighton
Wood has consistently been a reliable Premier League goalscorer but never previously produced outstanding numbers, with his previous best tally for a season standing at 14 – for Burnley in 2019/20 and Forest in 2023/24.
But something has clicked this season. Something has meant Wood, a player who has never scored so prolifically despite having previously played for other counter-attacking top-flight teams, has become one of the Premier League's best and most dangerous forwards.
It helps that he is flanked by such a talented group of creative players in Anthony Elanga, Morgan Gibbs-White and Callum Hudson-Odoi.
Elanga in particular does much of the team’s heavy lifting on the break, with a higher proportion of his movement with the ball going towards the opposition’s goal (78.2 per cent) than any other player in the Premier League this season (700+ minutes played), showing just how direct he is with the ball at his feet.
The Sweden winger has provided four assists for Wood this season, a tally which is bettered only by Newcastle's Jacob Murphy for Alexander Isak (six) and Manchester City's Savinho for Haaland (five).
Hudson-Odoi and Gibbs-White are both wonderful technicians who can carry the ball at pace, beat a man, put a dangerous ball into the box and have the ability to thread a clever pass through to Wood.
So, while those two, Elanga, and Elliot Anderson - a real under-the-radar star of the 2024/25 Premier League season so far - dominate the ball, Wood stays on the periphery of games. The 33-year-old is averaging only 24.8 touches of the ball per 90 in 2024/25, the third-fewest of all players in the Premier League after Leicester City striker Jamie Vardy (20.0) and Haaland (22.7).
Wood is instead a moments player, and when he does get involved, he has been in utterly lethal form. Of players to attempt more than five shots, Wood has, by a distance, the best conversion rate, having scored with an incredible 37.8 per cent of his attempts.
The New Zealander has also outscored his Expected Goals (xG) total of 10.2 by a greater differential than any other player, scoring 6.8 more goals than an average finisher would have done from his chances. His numbers prove he is – right now at least – genuinely elite in front of goal.
It helps that he gets into good goalscoring positions so often, with the average xG of his shots (0.23 xG) higher than every other player to have at least 10 shots apart from Chelsea’s Christopher Nkunku (0.26 xG), who has been on the pitch for significantly less game time. When Wood gets shots off, he does so from more dangerous positions than most of his peers.
It also helps that he gets his shots off quickly. This season, 73.3 per cent of his shots were with his first touch, and 94.1 per cent of his goals were first-time finishes. Of all players to score more than five Premier League goals in 2024/25, only Dominic Solanke has scored a higher proportion of his goals with first-time finishes, with 100 per cent.
Wood uses his clever movement, strength and height to great effect, to get on the end of crosses and take advantage of the short periods for which Forest are able to retain possession in opposition territory. He has scored six headed goals, more than any other player in the Premier League this season.
It means Forest don't have to rely on their quick breaks up field, and pose a threat just about whenever they get into the final third.
It is curious, though, given Wood’s goalscoring and how well Forest are doing this season by attacking on the break that their talisman carries so little threat in those situations. He hasn’t scored a single goal from a fast break this season, and his five shots from such situations have been worth just 0.32 xG.
That means each of his chances has been worth 0.06 xG, making the quality of those chances almost four times worse than his overall average for the season (0.23 xG).
There is a fair amount about the Wood-Nuno partnership which doesn’t quite add up. The Premier League's fastest team is thriving with a free-scoring centre-forward who poses very little threat on the break himself. In many ways, it just shouldn't be working as well as it is.
But there's no arguing with the league table. The position Forest find themselves in and the numbers Wood is posting prove how perfect a match it is.
Visit Opta Analyst's dedicated pages for more stats on Chris Wood, Nottingham Forest, and the Premier League.
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